us stock market, stock split

Begin part 3 of 3

THE PLAYS

Good movers Tuesday: DADE; GLBL; INNO; EYET; ISSX; JBLU; JNPR

Weekend play results:
FSL: Testing back to the 18 day EMA.
STLD: Strong volume rally higher but gave it back by the close.
TOL: Sold back to the 18 day EMA on rising volume.
VMSI: High volume test of the 18 day EMA.
KDE: Tapped the 50 day EMA on the high and fell back. May be ready.
SLM: Gapped down and sold further.

New Plays:

Upside:

Play Date: 02/22/2005
IHP (Ihop Corp.--$46.70; -0.38; no options): Flapjack house. Forecast to announce a stock split 2-24-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Last split 2:1 on 5-28-99 at $45.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ihp.html
STATUS: Breakout test. IHP is coming back to test a nice breakout last week as IHP let it be known that earnings were going to be good. Nice volume as it made the move out of its 11 week reverse head and shoulders pattern. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation in the base (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buyers, setting up the breakout. Expecting it to fully test the 10 day EMA (45.93) before resuming the move, but we want to be ready on a rebound from here.
Volume: 112.7K Avg Volume: 92.272K
BUY POINT: Test 46, then $46.78 on the rebound. Volume=138K Target=$53 Stop=$45.88
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ihp.html

Play Date: 02/22/2005
PWI (Primewest Energy Trust--$24; +0.02; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pwi.html
STATUS: Test breakout. In this market we like to see stocks that are holding up and stocks that are in good sectors. PWI is both. It broke higher two weeks back on solid volume, moving out of a 16 week ascending triangle base. Nice breakout, and now it is testing back, tapping at the 18 day EMA (23.74) on the intraday lows the past two sessions. Volume was up as it made the test and rebounded Tuesday. Looking for a strong move through the 10 day EMA (24.04) on strong volume. The first test of a breakout is one of our favorite entry points.
Volume: 607.9K Avg Volume: 448.5K
BUY POINT: $24.22 Volume=673K Target=$27.85 Stop=$23.62
POSITION: PWI FX - June $22.50c (76 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pwi.html

Downside:

Play Date: 02/22/2005
ALVR (Alvarion--$10.01; +0.03; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/alvr.html
STATUS: Put. ALVR formed something of a head and shoulders October through December, and then tanked through the 200 day SMA (12.36). Rebounded to the 18 day EMA (10.63). It spent a week trying to get through that level before a nasty plunge last week. It held some support at 10, but the 10 day EMA (10.36) is pushing down on it. Money flow is in the tank and the stock has been under heavy distribution. Looking for this lateral move on lower volume to fail and kick off another down leg. A move to the target nets us a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 1.044M Avg Volume: 1.114M
BUY POINT: $9.92 Volume=1.2M Target=$8.88 Stop=$10.11
POSITION: QBY PB - Apr. $10p (-46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/alvr.html

Play Date: 02/22/2005
FLO (Flowers Foods--$28.99; -0.77; optionable): Processed and packaged goods
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flo.html
STATUS: Put. Sold hard to start January and then made a low volume scratch back up to last week. It rolled over and has sold once more. FLO fell through the 50 day EMA (29.80) on strong volume. It has sold pretty hard and will give us a relief bounce at some point. Looking for a rebound some here to test toward the 50 day and then move in.
Volume: 254.9K Avg Volume: 161.59K
BUY POINT: Rebound toward 29.80. From Tuesday close, partial position at $28.88 Volume=185K Target=$27.35 Stop=$29.22
POSITION: FLO PF - Apr. $30p (-66 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/flo.html

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

us stock market
stock split