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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Tuesday: OMC; XTO
NEW PLAYS: New pre-announcement plays are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 02/22/2005
RECN (RSCS Connection--$49.02; -0.62; optionable): Management services. Splits 2:1 on 3/2/05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/recn.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Big gap up in late December out of a 7 month cup with handle base. It has now come back to test that break higher, filling the gap. It is moving laterally along the 50 day EMA (48.82) on very low, below average volume. Just going to be patient and let it show us the break higher on volume.
Volume: 301.062K Avg Volume: 502.363K
BUY POINT: $50.12 Volume=525K Target=$55.25 Stop=$48.78
POSITION: JJJ EJ - May $50c (50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/recn.html
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 02/22/2005
MDR (McDermott Intl.--$18.70 +0.45; optionable): Oil and gas equipment and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mdr.html
STATUS: Flat base. Volume shot higher Tuesday as MDR jumped off the 18 day EMA. After a solid breakout in October from a 9 month cup with handle base. It rallied up the 18 day EMA (18.21). It needed a breather and came back to test the 50 day EMA (17.67) in the current 6 week flat base. Strong stocks will test the 50 day after a breakout and strong run. Positive accumulation in the pattern shows net buying and has set up the next break higher. Relative strength is making the breakout, a good sign that the stock will follow.
Volume: 1.787M Avg Volume: 453.454K
BUY POINT: $19.06 Volume=680K Target=$23.25 Stop=$18.08
POSITION: MDR EW - May $17.50c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mdr.html
New Downside Play:
Play Date: 02/22/2005
ICF (Ishares Cohen & Steers--$127.68; -3.45; optionable): Financial services closed end fund.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/icf.html
STATUS: Put. ICF is trying to form up a reverse head and shoulders base, but it has a long way to go to do that. We will be happy to take part in some of the selling as it tries to form up that base, however. It broke through the 50 day EMA (129.52) on strong volume Tuesday, and it can give us a nice gain with a relatively modest further fall. Looking to move in on further selling, grab a 50%ish or so gain, and then move on.
Volume: 380.1K Avg Volume: 129.658K
BUY POINT: $127.55 Volume=165K Target=$125 Stop=$128.15
POSITION: ICK OX - Mar. $128p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/icf.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 02/15/2005
COGN (Cognos--$43.95; +0.03; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cogn.html
After Hours: $43.91
STATUS: Cup w/handle. And yet another tight doji above the 10 day EMA (43.44) as COGN ignores the market selling and sets up for the next move higher. To recap: Currently in a short 7 week base that formed over the 50 day EMA (42.12). This breakout will take it to a new all-time high, something we like because there is no overhead resistance to push it back down. Accumulation is excellent at 3 to 0 (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume), showing all buyers as it sets up for the next breakout move. A perennial leader.
Volume: 715.721K Avg Volume: 777.318K
BUY POINT: New: $44.28 (orig. $44.11) Volume=1M Target=$50 Stop=$42.65
POSITION: CRQ EV - May $42.50c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cogn.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all positions but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
APPX: No split 2-16-05. Good move higher. Researching the next date as we wait for another entry point.
CMTL: Forecast early March.
CVH: No split 2-22. Topped earnings by 5 cents.
EASI: Forecast 2-22-05 before the open. Never gave us another entry and with the earnings it was not going to announce a split.
FDX: Forecast mid-March.
GPC: Forecast 2-22-05 before the open. Never gave us the entry. This is why with these plays we want to see the move.
GPN: Tentatively forecast 3-21-05
LEH: Tentatively forecast 3-24-05.
NBL: No split 2-22 but beat earnings by 14 cents. Gapped higher and sold back with other oil stocks, but still set up to move higher.
OMC: Forecast 2-22-05 before the open. No split but some nice moves on volume.
ORLY: Forecast 2-23-05.
SPLS: Forecast 2-24-05. Needs to hold at 31.
TBL: Researching next date as no announcement 1-20. Continues testing the great move.
TOL: Forecast 2-23-05. Tough day for the builders, but still looking for a split announcement tomorrow.
TTC: Forecast 2-22-05 during the market. No split announced. Good earnings but an inline guidance.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 02/22/2005
IHP (Ihop Corp.--$46.70; -0.38; no options): Flapjack house. Forecast to announce a stock split 2-24-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Last split 2:1 on 5-28-99 at $45.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ihp.html
STATUS: Breakout test. IHP is coming back to test a nice breakout last week as IHP let it be known that earnings were going to be good. Nice volume as it made the move out of its 11 week reverse head and shoulders pattern. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation in the base (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buyers, setting up the breakout. Expecting it to fully test the 10 day EMA (45.93) before resuming the move, but we want to be ready on a rebound from here.
Volume: 112.7K Avg Volume: 92.272K
BUY POINT: Test 46, then $46.78 on the rebound. Volume=138K Target=$53 Stop=$45.88
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ihp.html
Play Date: 02/22/2005
FS (Four Seasons--$79.8; -0.58; optionable): Hotels. Forecast to announce a split 2-25-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: No split history.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fs.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. FS has formed the current 9 week base over the 50 day EMA (77.92). This is its third base in this run, still leaving it plenty of upside. It is sitting right at an all-time high, gathering itself over the important 50 day EMA for the next move higher. It has slipped back to the 50 day SMA (79.13) in the handle, still moving on very low, below average volume. Accumulation in the base is positive at 3 to 2 (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume), showing net accumulation and setting up the next break higher. Solid money flow is leading the stock and relative strength is ready for a breakout, a good sign of strength in the move.
Volume: 165K Avg Volume: 250.59K
BUY POINT: $80.44 Volume=376K Target=$90.55 Stop=$79.05
POSITION: FS GP - July $80c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fs.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Buy not yet hit:
Play Date: 01/11/2005
ORLY (Oreilly Automotive--$48.19; -0.5; optionable): Auto parts stores. Forecast to announce a split 2-23-05 after the close.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 11-8-99 at a stock price of $45. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/orly.html
STATUS: Breakout test. ORLY is testing last week's move on good earnings by Advance Auto. It moved up out of its 7 month base earlier in the month, but volume was light. It finally got a good jolt of volume last week. Holding over the early February high at 48 and the 10 day EMA (47.43). Strong money flow is leading higher and relative strength is ready for another breakout. Looking for another move higher on rising volume to move into positions. We will look at a partial ahead of the earnings if it gives us the volume on the move.
Volume: 273.009K Avg Volume: 268.909K
BUY POINT: $46.72 Volume=501K Target=$53.88 Stop=$45.32
POSITION: OQR EI - May $45c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/orly.html
Play Date: 02/05/2005
TDS (Telephone & Data Sys.--$85.2; -0.76; optionable): Wireless communications. Did not announce a split back on 2-9-05, but still looks very good here.
BACKGROUND: Last split way back in early 1989 at roughly $35. Something of a wild card, but moving well in a nice pattern.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tds.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still setting up the nest move, fading back to the 10 day EMA (85.14) on lower, below average volume Tuesday. Nice handle to its 4.5 month base. It really formed the handle in January and broke higher early this month, but there was not a lot of volume on that move. This is more of a second handle, but it is forming the same function, i.e. weeding out the last sellers. Solid money flow and excellent 6 to 2 accumulation in the pattern (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows money has been moving into the stock, setting up the breakout.
Volume: 157.7K Avg Volume: 175.59K
BUY POINT: $86.22 Volume=300K Target=$100 Stop=$84.32
POSITION: TDS CQ - May $85c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tds.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/19/2005
VMSI (Ventana Medical Sys.--$69.51; -0.42; optionable): Medical instruments. Splits 2:1 on 3-15-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vmsi.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Tried to make the move Tuesday, but when the market reversed it gave back some ground. Volume jumped to average, the first time in two weeks. Still held up very well considering the rest of the market, continuing its pattern consolidating the nice break higher. To recap: VMSI broke out from a 5 month flat base in late October and rallied to 65 before it needed a rest. It sold back to the 50 day EMA (65.58) to take the rest and then rebounded back for another move up the short term MA (10 and 18 day EMA); strong stocks show this kind of action when they make their breakouts. This is VMSI's second test of the 18 day EMA (69.04) since testing the 50 day. Volume has been very low, indicating no selling in the shares as it consolidates at this near support. Looking for volume to jump as it makes a move out of this nice lateral consolidation.
Volume: 156.027K Avg Volume: 138.681K
BUY POINT: $71.12 Volume=150K Target=$77.45 Stop=$69.78
POSITION: UMI FN - June $70c (55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vmsi.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/14/2005
JCOM (J2 Global Communications--$37.33; -0.62; optionable): Global outsourced messaging and communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jcom.html
After Hours: $37.37
STATUS: Breakout test. Not bad action as JCOM more or less ignored the market and continued its lateral move over the 10 day EMA (37.13), testing the break higher earlier this month. Like the action as it continues the below average volume test. To recap: JCOM broke higher to start the month, gapping up and rallying over the high in its short 6 week double bottom pattern. Missed the first buy point, but as is the usual case, however, there is more than one entry point for a play. Right now JCOM is making a lower volume test of the, you guessed it, 10 day EMA. Looking to move in as it makes its next volume move off this near support level.
Volume: 482.972K Avg Volume: 481.727K
BUY POINT: $38.35 Volume=800K Target=$45 Stop=$37.72
POSITION: JQF FG - June $35c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jcom.html
Play Date: 02/19/2005
SCHN (Schnitzer Steel--$36.72; -0.88; optionable): Metal recycling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/schn.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Another test of 38.50ish on the high (as it has the past four sessions, and it got it nowhere. It fell back for a loss on average volume, but still held above the 10 day EMA (36.43). Weathered the market selling pretty well; holding the handle is a good sign. Now just being patient and letting it finish the handle and show us a breakout. To recap: A short 11 week base has formed above the 200 day SMA (30.86) as the finishing touch on a larger 14 month base. The big base shows solid 15 to 9 accumulation (15 up price weeks on rising volume to 9 down price weeks on rising volume), showing net buyers as the stock consolidated and set up the next move. Volume has improved this month, rallying above average on several occasions. SCHN has rallied up to the 38 level where it has stalled on two prior occasions in the base. A break above this level on strong volume this time indicates it is ready to make a more serious upside move. We will look at a partial position (half of what we are going to put into the play) on a breakout, and then look for a test and then move in with the rest of the buy when that test back holds and starts to rebound on some solid trade.
Volume: 652.129K Avg Volume: 666.863K
BUY POINT: $38.75 Volume=1M Target=$44 Stop=$37.68
POSITION: SQQ HH - Aug. $40c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/schn.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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