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stock split, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: ATI; CTSH; GLBL; INFY; IR; MATK; PUMP; STLD; TV; VPI, etc.
Thursday night play results:
CNX: Gapped higher and ran to the close. Hard to get into.
CTSH: Nice steady move on much stronger volume.
MATK: Nice move but needs some more volume.
MRVL: Volatile move but rallied to close near session high on volume.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 02/26/2005
BEAV (BE Aerospace--$12.03; +0.53; optionable): Aerospace/defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/beav.html
After Hours: $12
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Nice volume Friday as BEAV started the breakout move from its 5.5 month base that formed around the 50 day EMA (10.83). That is an important support level where the big money steps in to support their favorite stocks. Excellent money flow is leading the stock higher, and accumulation in the base is positive at 6 to 5 (six up price weeks on rising volume to five down price weeks on rising volume), showing the net buying needed to break the stock past resistance and run higher. Moves from these bases can be explosive.
Volume: 1.514M Avg Volume: 436.272K
BUY POINT: $12.28 Volume=525K Target=$14.75 Stop=$11.45
POSITION: BQV GV - July $12.50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/beav.html
Play Date: 02/26/2005
CPHD (Cepheid--$11.19; +0.31; optionable): Genetic analysis systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cphd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nicely formed 14 month base that looks to have worked to weed out the sellers. Strong 18 to 11 accumulation in the base shows the buyers have been accumulating the stock, preparing it for the breakout and run. A new issue back in 2000, this is the second big base for CPHD, and a breakout sends it toward a new all-time high. Showing very good action the past couple of weeks with a strong volume break higher, a low volume test, and another solid volume move Friday that is starting the breakout move.
Volume: 312.35K Avg Volume: 228.227K
BUY POINT: $11.38 Volume=342K Target=$13.65 Stop=$10.58
POSITION: QHY FB - Dec. $10c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cphd.html
Play Date: 02/26/2005
KLAC (KLA Tencor--$50.81; +1.96; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/klac.html
After Hours: $50.94
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Very similar to SOX is making a solid bounce higher as it puts together a recovery from its long decline. The past 10 months have formed something of a reverse head and shoulders pattern, an accumulation base. The right shoulder of the pattern used the 200 day SMA (43.73) as support, and it made a higher low the past week over the 50 day EMA (46.92) then bolted higher on rising volume Thursday and Friday. Very nice volume. Indeed, volume has been very good the past two months as KLAC moved higher off the 200 day SMA, something NASDAQ overall has been unable to do. Friday it moved past the recent February highs (50.73) and looks ready for a pretty substantial move.
Volume: 8.753M Avg Volume: 4.941M
BUY POINT: $51.11 Volume=6M Target=$57.48 Stop=$48.89
POSITION: KCQ FJ - June $50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/klac.html
Play Date: 02/26/2005
OTIV (On Track Innovations--$12.39; +0.22; no options): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/otiv.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. OTIV has formed this nice 8 week pattern over the 50 day EMA (11.50), an important institutional support level. This short base is acting as the right shoulder to a much larger 14 month reverse head and shoulders base. Outstanding 16 to 6 accumulation in the larger base, showing a lot of buying as the stock consolidated and weeded out the weaker holders. Excellent money flow is leading higher even as the stock moves laterally the past two months. Volume dried up the past three weeks as it formed the handle, another sign that there are few sellers, and it often is the quiet before the storm. Looking for strong volume as it surges through the buy point.
Volume: 101.371K Avg Volume: 116.217K
BUY POINT: $13.05 Volume=174K Target=$15.65 Stop=$12.14
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/otiv.html
Play Date: 02/26/2005
SHFL (Shuffle Master--$32.46; +1.21; optionable): Card shufflers for the gaming industry
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/shfl.html
After Hours: $32.46
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume surged Friday as SHFL started the breakout from its 12 week base formed using the 50 day EMA (29.93) as support. Always good to see a stock hold at the 50 day as that shows money stepping in to support it. The excellent 4 to 1 accumulation in the pattern (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows that support as buyers have been picking up shares during the base. Friday volume jumped well above average as SHFL broke out and moved to an all-time high. A great stock built on the wallets of those at the gaming tables. Viva Las Vegas.
Volume: 1.008M Avg Volume: 705.681K
BUY POINT: $32.62 Volume=800K Target=$37.88 Stop=$31.14
POSITION: SFQ HF - Aug. $30c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/shfl.html
Play Date: 02/26/2005
STR (Questar--$53.05; +1.44; optionable): Gas utilities. Looking tentatively at early May, but with this pattern we did not want to wait.
BACKGROUND: Last split 2:1 6-16-98 at $40. It did not announce with earnings on 2-9-05, and it may wait until May to announce again, but it is a darn nice pattern.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/str.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. STR is making the breakout from its 12 week base formed mostly over the 50 day EMA (50.24), using that level as support. Strong 3 to 1 accumulation in the pattern has set up the breakout, and Friday STR was moving higher on rising, average volume. It is following money flow higher, and relative strength is making the breakout as well, a very good confirmation that the move is for real. Utilities are another sector performing well, and STR is breaking out to a new high. Want to see that volume run higher as it continues the breakout.
Volume: 524.9K Avg Volume: 408.454K
BUY POINT: $53.25 Volume=500K Target=$59 Stop=$51.24
POSITION: STR GJ - July $50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/str.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock split
stock recommendation
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