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stock split, stock research
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: AET; BZH; CTSH; DHI; IR; MRVL; NBL; SCHN; TOL; XTO
NEW PLAYS: New pre-announcement plays are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 02/26/2005
SHFL (Shuffle Master--$32.46; +1.21; optionable): Card shufflers for the gaming industry
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/shfl.html
After Hours: $32.46
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume surged Friday as SHFL started the breakout from its 12 week base formed using the 50 day EMA (29.93) as support. Always good to see a stock hold at the 50 day as that shows money stepping in to support it. The excellent 4 to 1 accumulation in the pattern (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows that support as buyers have been picking up shares during the base. Friday volume jumped well above average as SHFL broke out and moved to an all-time high. A great stock built on the wallets of those at the gaming tables. Viva Las Vegas.
Volume: 1.008M Avg Volume: 705.681K
BUY POINT: $32.62 Volume=800K Target=$37.88 Stop=$31.14
POSITION: SFQ HF - Aug. $30c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/shfl.html
Leaders: These are at split levels and just announced earnings without splits. We have our ears to the ground researching potential split dates. Until then we will take advantage of a good pattern and move if they show us one.
Play Date: 02/26/2005
BER (W.R. Berkley--$51.59; +0.2; optionable): P&C insurance
BACKGROUND: Last split 3:2 in August 2003 at $50. A frequent splitter.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/ber.html
STATUS: Breakout test. BER blasted out of a short 5 week ascending triangle 2 weeks back on some very good earnings. It rallied near 54 and has tested the breakout on lower volume (showing few sellers after the move higher), holding the 10 day EMA (50.93) the past three sessions. It is holding in a very tight range as it moves laterally, then volume surged Friday while it still held tight. That is a 'get ready' spike, telling us to get ready for a resumption of the move higher. Super money flow and a relative strength breakout on the move. Ready to move in as the stock rebounds on continued above average volume.
Volume: 669.5K Avg Volume: 331.818K
BUY POINT: $51.88 Volume=500K Target=$57 Stop=$50.87
POSITION: BER GJ - July $50c (69 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ber.html
Play Date: 02/26/2005
GGG (Graco--$38.61; +0.82; optionable): Machines for lottery systems.
BACKGROUND: GGG splits its stock a lot. It keeps going up and up when it does. This is one you want to hold for a long time because it rewards you with free shares that you can sell calls against when it makes the peaks in its runs. Last split was a 3:2 on 2-20-04 at $41.70. Before that in 2002. Before that in 2001. Before that 1998; 1996, 1994.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/ggg.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. GGG is making the breakout from a 13 week cup with handle of sorts that formed using the 50 day EMA (36.73) as support. Good level to hold because the big money steps in, etc. That big money is most likely not lotto players. This base follows a long, steady climb up the past 1.5 years, giving it a much needed rest. Accumulation in the pattern is a solid 4 to 2 as buyers continue to move into the stock when given the opportunity. Volume was up as it broke higher Friday, but it was still below average. Excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout. Just need to see some more volume as it continues the move. A perennial leader.
Volume: 259.7K Avg Volume: 285.227K
BUY POINT: $38.78 Volume=400K Target=$44 Stop=$37.64
POSITION: GGG HG - Aug. $35c (92 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ggg.html
Play Date: 02/26/2005
UNH (Unitedhealth Group--$91.39; +2.09; optionable): Health care plans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/unh.html
STATUS: Run to $100. UNH is working laterally the past seven weeks over the 18 day EMA (89.01) as the 50 day EMA (87.19) has risen to meet it. Indeed, it has bounced off the 50 day twice in the past three weeks, forming something of a short double bottom. It announced some good earnings in late January, but that was not enough to break it higher. This short little double bottom, however, looks as if it could do the job. It bounced higher Friday on some rising, average volume, and that makes it look ready to make a run to 100. Strong stocks tend to move toward 100 when the break through 90, and UNH looks to be on the way.
Volume: 2.588M Avg Volume: 2.695M
BUY POINT: $91.65 Volume=3M Target=$100 Stop=$89.89
POSITION: UHB FR - June $90c (63 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/unh.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all positions but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
APPX: No split 2-16-05. Big doji Friday on volume. Need to be careful here. Researching the next date as we wait for another entry point.
CMTL: Forecast early March.
CTSH: Early March. Working on pinpointing an exact date.
CVH: No split 2-22 but strong earnings. Letting it work for us as we research next announcement date.
FDX: Forecast mid-March.
FS: The earnings definitely did not give us an entry point as FS dove like a nuclear submarine. That is why we like to see the move in this market.
GPC: No split 2-22-05 before the open. Failed to give us the next good move to buy into, instead turning over on higher volume Friday. Not doing it.
GPN: Tentatively forecast 3-21-05. Still struggling below the 50 day EMA. Again, just watching for now to see if it can recover.
IHP: No split announced 2-24-05, but letting a nice pattern work for us.
IR: Researching to pinpoint the exact date. Nice break higher Friday.
LAUR: Looking for an announcement Monday, 2-28-05.
LEH: Tentatively forecast 3-24-05. Now it is starting to get there with a good volume move off the 50 day. A break through 92.50 on continued strong volume is an entry point to start some positions.
NBL: No split 2-22 but beat earnings by 14 cents. It got the volume as it screamed higher.
OMC: No split 2-22-05 before the open. Letting a great stock work in a good move for us.
ORLY: No split 2-23-05. Continues rallying after those strong earnings sans split announcement.
SIE: researching to pinpoint the exact date.
TBL: Researching next date as no announcement 1-20. Still a great test at the 18 day EMA.
TOL: No announcement 2-23-05. Surprising non-announcement, but an excellent move.
TTC: No split 2-22-05. Not a lot of volume but a nice break through 85 Friday.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
Some potential announcements this week but not in the best buy point right now.
AZO: 3-2-05 before the open.
SUN: 3-1-05 before the open.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 02/26/2005
STR (Questar--$53.05; +1.44; optionable): Gas utilities. Looking tentatively at early May, but with this pattern we did not want to wait.
BACKGROUND: Last split 2:1 6-16-98 at $40. It did not announce with earnings on 2-9-05, and it may wait until May to announce again, but it is a darn nice pattern.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/str.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. STR is making the breakout from its 12 week base formed mostly over the 50 day EMA (50.24), using that level as support. Strong 3 to 1 accumulation in the pattern has set up the breakout, and Friday STR was moving higher on rising, average volume. It is following money flow higher, and relative strength is making the breakout as well, a very good confirmation that the move is for real. Utilities are another sector performing well, and STR is breaking out to a new high. Want to see that volume run higher as it continues the breakout.
Volume: 524.9K Avg Volume: 408.454K
BUY POINT: $53.25 Volume=500K Target=$59 Stop=$51.24
POSITION: STR GJ - July $50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/str.html
Play Date: 02/26/2005
CDIS (Cal Dive--$50.40; +1.17; optionable): Oil and gas equipment and services. Forecast to announce a split 3-1-05 after the close.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 10-18-00 at $54.50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cdis.html
After Hours: $50.40
STATUS: Breakout test. Friday CDIS broke higher once more, moving on stronger, above average volume as it cleared a week long lateral move. This is its second jump higher after breaking out from an 8 week cup base that formed at the 50 day EMA (43.75). Strong stocks make four to five bounces up off the short term MA after a breakout before they need a bit deeper test toward the 50 day EMA. Looking to enter some positions on a continued move on volume. A bit below prior split prices, but energy sector stocks have been eager to announce splits.
Volume: 569.451K Avg Volume: 415.045K
BUY POINT: $50.55 Volume=450K Target=$58 Stop=$44.45
POSITION: KPQ FJ - June $50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cdis.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Buy not yet hit:
Play Date: 02/15/2005
FDX (Federal Express--$98.44; +0.72; optionable): Air and freight delivery. Forecast mid-March. Still pinpointing the date.
BACKGROUND: Two splits in the past, one 1996 at $75. The more recent was announced 3-18-99 at $92. It is right there.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdx.html
After Hours: $99.35
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Making a nice move off the 50 day EMA (95.80) but not getting any volume. Still looks ready to make the good move. To recap: FDX is moving up off the 50 day EMA, the level that acted as support in its two week handle to the 10 week base. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the pattern (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buying and sets up the breakout ahead. Need to see the volume come back in as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 1.226M Avg Volume: 1.824M
BUY POINT: New: $98.88 (orig. $98.15) Volume=2.8M Target=$108 Stop=$95.78
POSITION: FDX GS - July $95c (72 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fdx.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/22/2005
RECN (RSCS Connection--$49.89; -0.26; optionable): Management services. Splits 2:1 on 3/2/05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/recn.html
After Hours: $49.90
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Volume was up Friday but RECN could go nowhere as it continues to hover just over the 50 day EMA (48.93). To recap: Big gap up in late December out of a 7 month cup with handle base. It has now come back to test that break higher, filling the gap. It is moving laterally along the 50 day EMA on very low, below average volume. Being patient and letting it show us the break higher on volume.
Volume: 265.287K Avg Volume: 501.181K
BUY POINT: New: 50.32 (orig. $50.12) Volume=525K Target=$55.25 Stop=$48.78
POSITION: JJJ EJ - May $50c (50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/recn.html
Play Date: 02/19/2005
VMSI (Ventana Medical Sys.--$70.98; +1.81; optionable): Medical instruments. Splits 2:1 on 3-15-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vmsi.html
After Hours: $71.05
STATUS: Flying plateau. Good price move Friday but volume was not as good. Looks as if the lateral move and test of the 18 day EMA (89.31) is ready to give way to the next rally. To recap: VMSI broke out from a 5 month flat base in late October and rallied to 65 before it needed a rest. It sold back to the 50 day EMA (66.07) to take the rest and then rebounded back for another move up the short term MA (10 and 18 day EMA); strong stocks show this kind of action when they make their breakouts. This is VMSI's second test of the 18 day EMA since testing the 50 day. Volume has been very low, indicating no selling in the shares as it consolidates at this near support. Looking for volume to jump as it makes a move out of this nice lateral consolidation.
Volume: 151.946K Avg Volume: 140K
BUY POINT: $71.12 Volume=150K Target=$77.45 Stop=$69.78
POSITION: UMI FN - June $70c (55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vmsi.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/23/2005
FLIR (Flir Systems--$31.08; -0.09; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flir.html
After Hours: $30.96
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Looked ready to make the move Wednesday as volume jumped, but it ended the week on lower, below average volume, holding steady at the 18 day EMA (31.04). Still in that higher low that often precedes the breakout. To recap: The 50 day EMA, the important support level, is acting as support for the handle to the 7 month base. Kind of a jagged pattern, but it has nonetheless formed up well, using the 200 day SMA (28.85) as support on each low. That is where the big money steps in if they want to continue holding the stock. They have, and that has built this base. Solid 7 to 4 accumulation (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume) is an indication of that support as it shows net buying. Looking for volume to continue moving higher as FLIR moves through the buy point.
Volume: 529.78K Avg Volume: 355.065K
BUY POINT: $32.15 Volume=843K Target=$37 Stop=$30.89
POSITION: FFQ GX - July $32.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/flir.html
Play Date: 02/14/2005
JCOM (J2 Global Communications--$37.45; +0.25; optionable): Global communications systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jcom.html
After Hours: $37.43
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle breakout. Testing the breakout from a nice little 7 week base has formed at the tail end of a much larger 17 month cup with handle. Excellent volume as it broke higher to start February, and then a lower volume lateral move to form the handle. Monday volume was back above average as JCOM started the breakout above this handle. Accumulation in the short base is 2 to 1 and an excellent 18 to 6 in the overall base. A nice pullback to the 18 day EMA (36.45) has set up the next move. Need to see volume as it makes the move through the buy point.
Volume: 367.442K Avg Volume: 480.545K
BUY POINT: $38.35 Volume=800K Target=$45 Stop=$37.72
POSITION: JQF FG - June $35c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jcom.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock split
stock research
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