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us stock market, stock watch
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Tuesday: ANF; FINL; GPRO; LIZ; SMH; SONC; TBL; URBN
NEW PLAYS: New pre-announcement plays are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 03/01/2005
CWTR (Coldwater Creek--$28.66; +0.95; optionable): Catalog & mail order houses. Splits 3:2 on 3-21-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cwtr.html
STATUS: Flat base. CWTR is working laterally along the 50 day EMA (27.47) in its 8 week base as CWTR consolidates its strong move in 2004. A market leader that is setting up for the next move. Good support as it held the 50 day EMA as it formed the lateral pattern. Need to see volume jump as it continues the move.
Volume: 166.815K Avg Volume: 227.545K
BUY POINT: $28.88 Volume=300K Target=$34 Stop=$27.34
POSITION: UCJ GF - July $30c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cwtr.html
Play Date: 03/01/2005
MCO (Moodys Corp.--$85.6; +1.69; optionable): Corporate rankings, etc. Splits 2:1 on 5-19-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mco.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. MCO was in a decent pattern in January and February. It gapped higher but then reversed and sold off through the 50 day EMA (84.07). It managed to recover that level, and Tuesday jumped off the 50 day on rising, above average volume. Looking to move in as it continues its bounce off the 50 day EMA.
Volume: 764.5K Avg Volume: 547.727K
BUY POINT: $85.88 Volume=822K Target=$91 Stop=$83.89
POSITION: MCO EQ - May $85c (61 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mco.html
Leaders:
Play Date: 02/15/2005
COGN (Cognos--$44.73; +1.82; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cogn.html
After Hours: $44.53
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice price break higher Tuesday. Volume has been average the past two days; higher but not surging. Nonetheless, if COGN continues to make the break higher and volume is decent early on we will look to start a position. Nice 8 week cup with handle that formed over the 50 day EMA (42.39), a key support level. A leader that is ready to make the break to a new high.
Volume: 797.745K Avg Volume: 748.363K
BUY POINT: $44.11 Volume=1M Target=$50 Stop=$42.65
POSITION: CRQ EV - May $42.50c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cogn.html
These are at split levels and just announced earnings without splits. We have our ears to the ground researching potential split dates. Until then we will take advantage of a good pattern and move if they show us one.
Play Date: 02/26/2005
BER (W.R. Berkley--$52.51; +1.15; optionable): P&C insurance
BACKGROUND: Last split 3:2 in August 2003 at $50. A frequent splitter.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/ber.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Bounced up off the 10 day EMA (51.28) Tuesday but volume did not come with it, remaining below average. Still in good shape and we are looking to enter if it shows a bit more volume. To recap: BER blasted out of a short 5 week ascending triangle 2 weeks back on some very good earnings. It rallied near 54 and has tested the breakout on lower volume (showing few sellers after the move higher), holding the 10 day EMA. Super money flow and a relative strength breakout on the move.
Volume: 322.2K Avg Volume: 341.545K
BUY POINT: New: $52.75 (orig. $51.88) Volume=500K Target=$57 Stop=$50.87
POSITION: BER GJ - July $50c (69 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ber.html
Play Date: 02/26/2005
GGG (Graco--$38.35; -0.31; optionable): Machines for lottery systems.
BACKGROUND: GGG splits its stock a lot. It keeps going up and up when it does. This is one you want to hold for a long time because it rewards you with free shares that you can sell calls against when it makes the peaks in its runs. Last split was a 3:2 on 2-20-04 at $41.70. Before that in 2002. Before that in 2001. Before that 1998; 1996, 1994.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/ggg.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. Tuesday GGG was making a test of the breakout from Friday, falling back modestly, still holding easily over the 10 day EMA (38.03). Volume was up and above average, not the best action. It is still holding up in the breakout, however, so we will watch for volume to remains strong as it resumes the upside move. To recap: Making the breakout from a 13 week cup with handle of sorts that formed using the 50 day EMA (36.86) as support. Good level to hold because the big money steps in, etc. That big money is most likely not lotto players. This base follows a long, steady climb up the past 1.5 years, giving it a much needed rest. Accumulation in the pattern is a solid 4 to 2 as buyers continue to move into the stock when given the opportunity. Volume was up as it broke higher Friday, but it was still below average. Excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout.
Volume: 349.1K Avg Volume: 289.181K
BUY POINT: $38.78 Volume=400K Target=$44 Stop=$37.64
POSITION: GGG HG - Aug. $35c (92 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ggg.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all positions but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
APPX: No split 2-16-05. Researching the next date as we wait for another entry point. Managed to hold up over the 10 day EMA.
CDIS: No split after hours. CDIS coming back to test the 10 day EMA.
CMTL: Forecast early March and still trying to nail down an exact date.
CTSH: Early March. Working on pinpointing an exact date.
CVH: No split 2-22 but strong earnings. Still working higher as we research next announcement date.
FDX: Forecast mid-March.
GPN: Tentatively forecast 3-21-05. Rallying up to the 50 day EMA on rising, average trade. This is where it needs to make the breakthrough or it is in real trouble.
IHP: No split announced 2-24-05. Working laterally over the 10 day EMA, trying to set up the next move.
IR: Researching to pinpoint the exact date. Still running higher after the breakout last week.
LAUR: Looking for an announcement Monday, 2-28-05. No announcement and had to bail out as it sold toward the 50 day EMA.
LEH: Tentatively forecast 3-24-05. Still no volume yet as it tries to move over the 50 day EMA. Again, a break through 92.50 on continued strong volume is an entry point to start some positions.
NBL: No split 2-22 but beat earnings by 14 cents. Testing the breakout and the 10 day EMA on lower volume. Being patient and waiting for the next rebound for additional positions.
OMC: No split 2-22-05 before the open. Taking a breather after a nice move higher.
ORLY: No split 2-23-05. And still rallying on volume.
SIE: researching to pinpoint the exact date.
STR: Early May.
TBL: Researching next date as no announcement 1-20. Researching the next date. Nice bounce off the 18 day EMA.
TOL: No announcement 2-23-05. Surprising non-announcement. Still holding the move higher, one of the stronger homebuilders the past week.
TTC: No split 2-22-05. Still holding the move higher but on very low volume.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
Some potential announcements this week but not in the best buy point right now.
AZO: 3-2-05 before the open.
SUN: 3-1-05 before the open. No announcement.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 03/01/2005
CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange--$220; +13.38; optionable): Commodities, securities, currency, etc. trading. Looking for an announcement possible in April with earnings.
BACKGROUND: CME has never split its stock. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cme.html
After Hours: $217
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. CME blasted higher Tuesday on a strong shot of above average volume. It is making the breakout from an 8 week base that worked to consolidate the huge September to December run. When it gets the wind in its sails it can fly. Down a bit after hours so if it opens softer and starts back up we will move in.
Volume: 1.293M Avg Volume: 793.818K
BUY POINT: On a softer open near 217, 218 on the rebound; from the closing price if it does not fade: $221.05 Volume=1M Target=$235 Stop=$218.25
POSITION: CMJ FD - June $220c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cme.html
Play Date: 03/01/2005
ESRX (Express Scripts--$77.28; +1.99; optionable): Mail order prescription plans. Did not announce in early February when it last announced. Looking for an announcement 3-2-05 after the close with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split in February 2001 at $88.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
After Hours: $77.27
STATUS: Flat base. ESRX is working on an 11 week flat base formed over the 50 day EMA (75.23), a key institutional support level. This is part of a 11 month pattern something resembling a reverse head and shoulders or double bottom with handle. In any event, accumulation in the latter portion, the flat part of the base, is excellent at 5 to 1 (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume). That shows lopsided buying as it moved laterally on lower volume. Volume spiked higher Tuesday as ESRX bounced off the 50 day EMA. Looking for a break over the recent resistance on continued rising volume.
Volume: 844.246K Avg Volume: 738.636K
BUY POINT: $78.05 Volume=1.1M Target=$86 Stop=$75.78
POSITION: XTQ HP - Aug. $80c (48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/esrx.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Buy not yet hit:
Play Date: 02/26/2005
STR (Questar--$52.61; -0.41; optionable): Gas utilities. Looking tentatively at early May, but with this pattern we did not want to wait.
BACKGROUND: Last split 2:1 6-16-98 at $40. It did not announce with earnings on 2-9-05, and it may wait until May to announce again, but it is a darn nice pattern.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/str.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. STR moved higher Friday on average volume. It has spent the past two sessions moving laterally on lower, below average volume in a short test. Still looks ready to make the break higher. To recap: Nice 12 week base formed mostly over the 50 day EMA (50.44), using that level as support. Strong 3 to 1 accumulation in the pattern has set up the breakout, and Friday STR was moving higher on rising, average volume. It is following money flow higher, and relative strength is making the breakout as well, a very good confirmation that the move is for real. Utilities are another sector performing well, and STR is breaking out to a new high. Want to see that volume run higher as it continues the breakout.
Volume: 282.7K Avg Volume: 416.454K
BUY POINT: $53.25 Volume=500K Target=$59 Stop=$51.24
POSITION: STR GJ - July $50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/str.html
Play Date: 02/26/2005
CDIS (Cal Dive--$49.76; -1.02; optionable): Oil and gas equipment and services. Forecast to announce a split 3-1-05 after the close. No announcement after the close.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 10-18-00 at $54.50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cdis.html
After Hours: $50.14
STATUS: Breakout test. Continuing the breakout test. Gapped higher Monday but sold back most of the session. It was selling further Tuesday with the rest of the energy sector stocks. Volume was lower but still above average volume. Looking to get in after this test is over. To recap: Friday CDIS broke higher once more, moving on stronger, above average volume as it cleared a week long lateral move. This is its second jump higher after breaking out from an 8 week cup base that formed at the 50 day EMA (44.26). Strong stocks make four to five bounces up off the short term MA after a breakout before they need a bit deeper test toward the 50 day EMA. Looking for a full test of the 10 day EMA (49) and then a rebound. CDIS was a bit below prior split prices, but it could still give us a split announcement this week.
Volume: 632.925K Avg Volume: 423.681K
BUY POINT: Test 49, then $50.15 on the way back up. Volume=450K Target=$58 Stop=$44.45
POSITION: KPQ FJ - June $50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cdis.html
Play Date: 02/15/2005
FDX (Federal Express--$98.1; +0.32; optionable): Air and freight delivery. Forecast mid-March. Still pinpointing the date.
BACKGROUND: Two splits in the past, one 1996 at $75. The more recent was announced 3-18-99 at $92. It is right there.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Really tempting as it works laterally over the 10 day EMA (97.45) on very low, below average volume. It is forming a further handle to its base, and we just need to see the break higher on strong volume. To recap: FDX is moving up off the 50 day EMA, the level that acted as support in its two week handle to the 10 week base. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the pattern (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buying and sets up the breakout ahead. Need to see the volume come back in as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 1.134M Avg Volume: 1.843M
BUY POINT: New: $98.88 (orig. $98.15) Volume=2.8M Target=$108 Stop=$95.78
POSITION: FDX GS - July $95c (72 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fdx.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/23/2005
FLIR (Flir Systems--$31.77; +0.52; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flir.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Starting to move up off the 50 day EMA (30.52) but volume is not following. Continues to look very goods in its pattern, but it is going to need to show us the volume as it makes the move. Nice higher low here over the 50 day EMA is a good sign of the breakout to come. To recap: The 50 day EMA, the important support level, is acting as support for the handle to the 7 month base. Kind of a jagged pattern, but it has nonetheless formed up well, using the 200 day SMA (28.94) as support on each low. That is where the big money steps in if they want to continue holding the stock. They have, and that has built this base. Solid 7 to 4 accumulation (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume) is an indication of that support as it shows net buying.
Volume: 412.477K Avg Volume: 573.818K
BUY POINT: $32.15 Volume=843K Target=$37 Stop=$30.89
POSITION: FFQ GX - July $32.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/flir.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
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