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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Wednesday: AFFX; COGN; MTEX; URBN
Best Plays:
1) IVAN: Nice volume breakout underway.
2) KOMG: Another nice volume breakout underway.
3) CHT: Gapped higher and sold back but looks ready to resume the breakout.
4) DTPI: Volume is spiking again.
5) OTVI: Strong volume as it moves towards the breakout.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/02/2005
IVAN (Ivanhoe Energy--$2.85; +0.2; no options): Oil and gas drilling, exploration
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ivan.html
After Hours: $2.84
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice breakout on volume Wednesday from a 20 week base sporting excellent 6 to 1 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume). That shows a lot of buying in the base, setting up the breakout. This base is the first one that has formed off the bottom of a 16 month base. It formed over the 200 day SMA (2.16), an important institutional support. Nice volume breakout and we are looking to step in as it continues the move. Excellent money flow is leading higher.
Volume: 5.428M Avg Volume: 1.268M
BUY POINT: $2.93 Volume=1.8M Target=$3.68 Stop=$2.72
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ivan.html
Play Date: 03/02/2005
KOMG (Komag--$21.73; +0.32; optionable): PC data storage devices.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/komg.html
After Hours: $21.77
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume was up Monday and Tuesday as KOMG started the breakout move from its 12 month base. Strong 18 to 10 accumulation in the pattern shows solid net buying, setting up the breakout. It has been a long time coming, but it looks ready for a good breakout and run.
Volume: 1.028M Avg Volume: 478.681K
BUY POINT: $21.89 Volume=600K Target=$26.25 Stop=$20.44
POSITION: QKX FD - June $20c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/komg.html
Play Date: 02/16/2005
TSO (Tesoro Petroleum--$36.17; 0; optionable): Oil and gas refining and marketing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tso.html
STATUS: Breakout test. TSO made us a modest gain on the first breakout move (25% on our options) and we were trailing stopped out as we did not want to get caught in an oil and gas reversal given the strong run in the sector. It sold back but held the breakout and showed a doji Wednesday on high volume. That often means it is ready to resume the move, and we want to step back in for more upside if it does. The base was a nice 4.5 month double bottom with handle sporting outstanding 7 to 3 accumulation. That big volume Wednesday caught our interest and we are looking to step back in as it starts up once more on volume.
Volume: 1.612M Avg Volume: 981.5K
BUY POINT: $36.32 Volume=1.1M Target=$41 Stop=$35.08
POSITION: TSO EG - May $35c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tso.html
Play Date: 03/02/2005
WYNN (Wynn Resorts--$72.95; +0.99; optionable): Gaming in Las Vegas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wynn.html
After Hours: $72.98
STATUS: Test breakout. WYNN is moving laterally over the 18 day EMA (70.95) after a mid-February breakout from an 8 week cup with handle base sporting 2 to 1 accumulation. Low volume pretty much on everything but the breakout session. Very low trade the past week as it sets up for the next move. Solid money flow and relative strength ready to make the breakout. This one made us money on a prior run, and if it gives us the volume we will be ready to move in as it continues the breakout run.
Volume: 595.19K Avg Volume: 1.321M
BUY POINT: $73.45 Volume=1.5M Target=$83 Stop=$71.67
POSITION: UWY FO - June $75c (47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wynn.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Not yet entered:
Play Date: 02/26/2005
CAKE (Cheesecake Factory--$34.46; +0.03; optionable): Restaurants
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cake.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Trying to muster a further move but not getting any traction as volume has remained below average the past two sessions. On the verge of a new high on this move, and if some volume comes in that will be the signal the big money is ready for more shares. To recap: CAKE broke out from a 12 month cup with handle base three weeks back in an explosive gap higher. It has spent the past two weeks testing that move and filling the gap, easing back on very low volume. It ended last week rebounding back up on rising though still below average volume. The handle to the base is a nice pattern of its own sporting 3 to 1 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume). A leader, CAKE is ready to break to another new all-time high as it rebounds from the test of that blast higher. Restaurants are enjoying a nice surge in traffic, a very good sign of the overall economy.
Volume: 373.306K Avg Volume: 603.863K
BUY POINT: New: $34.75 Volume=650K Target=$39 Stop=$33.11
POSITION: CZK GX - July $33.38c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cake.html
Play Date: 02/26/2005
CHT (Chunghwa Telecom--$22.04; +0.24; optionable): Chinese wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cht.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Gapped higher Wednesday on strong volume but was unable to hold much of the move. Decided to hold off and let it show us it is going to continue the move from here. To recap: CHT is moving to another new high (a new issue in 2003) as it forms a 7 week ascending base. It is using the 50 day EMA (21.24) as support, showing continued institutional interest in the stock. Accumulation is a strong 3 to 0 during this recent more or less lateral move. Volume expanded last week as it moved toward the high.
Volume: 846.9K Avg Volume: 321.272K
BUY POINT: $22.32 Volume=400K Target=$26.75 Stop=$21.55
POSITION: CHT FX - June $22.50c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cht.html
Play Date: 02/28/2005
DTPI (Diamondcluster Intl.--$16.99; -0.01; no options): Global management consulting firm.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dtpi.html
After Hours: $16.99
STATUS: Flying plateau. Fell back into the lateral pattern, but showing signs it is not going to stay there. Volume was up again Wednesday as DTPI showed a nice tight doji on the 10 day EMA (16.76). Looks ready to run and follow that money flow higher. To recap: A 4 week lateral move over the 18 day EMA (16.52), continuing its run from the early December breakout. This is the second lateral test since the breakout and strong stocks tend to make 4 or 5 bounces from the 10 and 18 day EMA before testing deeper. That gives DTPI plenty of upside to make us some money. Nice 2 to 0 accumulation in the plateau shows no sellers.
Volume: 353.328K Avg Volume: 241.318K
BUY POINT: $17.36 Volume=265K Target=$20.75 Stop=$16.45
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dtpi.html
Play Date: 02/26/2005
OTIV (On Track Innovations--$12.78; +0.14; no options): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/otiv.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume jumped to above average Wednesday as OTIV reached toward the breakout. It backed off on the close, but it was a solid move and the volume is getting us ready for the breakout move. Want to see the volume continue as it pushes back through the buy point. To recap: OTIV has formed this nice 8 week pattern over the 50 day EMA (11.64), an important institutional support level. This short base is acting as the right shoulder to a much larger 14 month reverse head and shoulders base. Outstanding 16 to 6 accumulation in the larger base, showing a lot of buying as the stock consolidated and weeded out the weaker holders. Excellent money flow is leading higher even as the stock moves laterally the past two months. Volume dried up the past three weeks as it formed the handle, another sign that there are few sellers, and it often is the quiet before the storm.
Volume: 128.54K Avg Volume: 117.841K
BUY POINT: $13.05 Volume=174K Target=$15.65 Stop=$12.14
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/otiv.html
Play Date: 03/01/2005
STLD (Steel Dynamics--$42.27; -1.26; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stld.html
After Hours: $42.19
STATUS: Breakout test. Big doji Wednesday as STLD reached down through the 18 day EMA (41.46) and rebounded sharply on strong volume. It has dropped for three sessions, the first two on low volume and this rebound on strong volume. Looking for the rebound to carry it higher and up through the buy point. To recap: STLD broke out from an 18 week ascending triangle about a week back, rallying over 45. We jumped in on that move, but when it reversed we sold out for a modest gain. Now it has come back to test that breakout. Volume has been much lower and below average on this test, showing very few sellers. We are looking for the rebound on better volume. That is when we will make the move. Strong 7 to 3 accumulation in the base shows a lot of buying support the base and this breakout.
Volume: 2.721M Avg Volume: 1.236M
BUY POINT: New: $42.75 (orig. $43.72) Volume=1.2M Target=$50 Stop=$42.64
POSITION: RQL HH - Aug. $40c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/stld.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/23/2005
DELL (Dell Computer Corp--$40.29; -0.11; optionable): PC's, and other hardware.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dell.html
After Hours: $40.28
STATUS: Put. Showing a tombstone doji below the 50 day EMA (40.46) on lower, below average volume. This is where it needs to fail and start its fall on stronger volume. To recap: DELL gapped higher in early November and rallied to near 43 before peaking in December and January. It sold to the 50 day EMA, held, and started higher as it headed into earnings. It gapped below the 50 day on those earnings, then rallied back up to test that breach. It stalled, and then fell Wednesday on rising volume, the strongest since the gap down. We are looking to play the move down to fill the November gap higher; gaps have a habit of being filled. That move will net us a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 11.285M Avg Volume: 13.605M
BUY POINT: $39.95 Volume=20M Target=$38.15 Stop=$40.12
POSITION: DLQ PH - Apr. $40p (-46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dell.html
Play Date: 02/28/2005
VNO (Vornado Realty--$69.66; -0.14; optionable): Industrial REIT
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vno.html
STATUS: Put. Low volume lateral move the past two sessions as VNO continues to bump up against the 10 day EMA (70.04) Still under pressure, but after the high volume selling Friday this is where it needs to fail and break down through any potential double bottom. It reached this level in late January before it managed to rebound, so there is the potential for a double bottom here. Looking for it to continue lower on strong trade to move into the downside play. A move to the target grabs us a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 375.9K Avg Volume: 471.909K
BUY POINT: $68.48 Volume=500K Target=$66.39 Stop=$69.04
POSITION: VNO PN - Apr. $70c (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vno.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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