|
|
us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Thursday: ACL; CENT; COH; ESRX; JCOM; NBL; XTO; STR
NEW PLAYS: New pre-announcement plays are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 03/03/2005
VMSI (Ventana Medical Sys.--$67.61; +0.39; optionable): Medical instruments and supplies. Splits 2:1 on 3-15-05.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vmsi.html
After Hours: $67.59
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Got a bit rocky Monday with a volume thud down to the 50 day EMA (66.24), but it held that level and has bounced modestly. This is the second test of the 50 day after breaking out from a 15 week base in late October. Strong stocks make periodic tests of the 50 day, and VMSI has held thus far. It is a market leader, but we still want to see it break back through the 10 and 18 day EMA (68.56) on above average volume before we move in.
Volume: 141.832K Avg Volume: 159.681K
BUY POINT: $68.78 Volume=275K Target=$76 Stop=$67.32
POSITION: UMI FN - June $70c (45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vmsi.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 03/03/2005
APPB (Applebees Intl.--$28.44; -0.33; optionable): Fern bar restaurants
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/appb.html
After Hours: $28.49
STATUS: Breakout test. APPB blasted out of a 10 month double bottom with handle base in late January on some excellent earnings news. It made a test of the move in late February and shot higher again on another good volume surge. It has eased back the past two sessions to test the 10 day EMA (28.33), holding right over the top of the high on the initial breakout run. Strong money flow is leading higher, and after this test we expect APPB to continue the breakout move. Solid and at an all-time high.
Volume: 423.828K Avg Volume: 714.727K
BUY POINT: $28.75 Volume=900K Target=$33 Stop=$27.94
POSITION: AQB HE - Aug. $25c (97 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/appb.html
Play Date: 03/03/2005
LCAV (LCA-Vision--$29.72; +1.65; optionable): Medical practitioners
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lcav.html
After Hours: $29.70
STATUS: Breakout test. Excellent breakout in late February from a flat base netted us a nice gain. It has come back to test that move, holding above the 18 day EMA (27.95) Thursday on the low and then rallying for a nice gain on rising, above average volume. Strong money flow and relative strength broke out on the first move and looks ready to do it again. Ready to move in on another nice decent volume move higher.
Volume: 479.522K Avg Volume: 333.818K
BUY POINT: $29.88 Volume=501K Target=$34.75 Stop=$28.55
POSITION: JVQ FF - June $30c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lcav.html
Play Date: 03/03/2005
PTEN (Patterson-Uti Energy--$25.21; +0.92; optionable): Oil and gas drilling/exploration.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pten.html
After Hours: $25.21
STATUS: Breakout test. Split in July, rallied, then formed a 17 week flat base over the 200 day SMA (18.43). It broke out in early February and surged up the 10 day EMA (24.17). It is making its second test of that level. Nice tight doji Wednesday on strong volume, and then a solid price bounce Thursday. Looks ready to continue the move. Strong money flow is leading higher and relative strength is making the next breakout, a very good sign for the stock to follow it.
Volume: 2.963M Avg Volume: 2.556M
BUY POINT: $25.42 Volume=3.1M Target=$29 Stop=$24.08
POSITION: NZQ EE - May $25c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pten.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all positions but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
APPX: Researching the next date as we wait for another entry point. Nice doji over the 18 day EMA.
CDIS: No split announced but a nice leader.
CMTL: Forecast early March and still trying to nail down an exact date.
CTSH: Early March. Working on pinpointing an exact date.
CVH: Still working higher as we research next announcement date.
FDX: Forecast mid-March.
GPN: Tentatively forecast 3-21-05. Has been unable to clear the 50 day EMA.
IHP: Nice flat move over the 10 day EMA on very low volume.
IR: Researching to pinpoint the exact date. Still running higher after the breakout last week.
LEH: Tentatively forecast 3-24-05. Holding over the 50 day EMA, easing back on lower volume. A good test could set up the break higher. Again, a break through 92.50 on continued strong volume is an entry point to start some positions.
NBL: Starting back up off the 10 day EMA after testing the breakout.
OMC: Researching the next date. Nice move and still taking a breather after a nice move higher.
ORLY: No split 2-23-05. Taking a breather but holding its gains..
SIE: After a low volume slide higher it finally got a shot of volume well above our buy point. Will look for the test of the move as an entry point.
STR: Early May. Started higher on some better volume.
TBL: Announced the split after hours.
TOL: No announcement 2-23-05. Working laterally over the 10 day EMA, trying to set up for the next move.
TTC: No split 2-22-05. Another leader working laterally over the 10 day EMA as the market decides what it is going to do.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
Some potential announcements this week but not in the best buy point right now.
SUN: 3-1-05 before the open. It boosted its dividend and announced share buybacks.
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Buy not yet hit: Here are two that still look good and ready to make a break higher.
Play Date: 02/26/2005
CDIS (Cal Dive--$50.17; +0.48; optionable): Oil and gas equipment and services. Forecast to announce a split 3-1-05 after the close. No announcement after the close.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 10-18-00 at $54.50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cdis.html
After Hours: $49.60
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped lower, tapped the 18 day EMA (48.15) and then rebounded for a gain on strong, rising volume. This test looks to have set the move for the next run. This is the first test of the 18 day since the breakout, so plenty of room to run. To recap: Last Friday CDIS broke higher once more, moving on stronger, above average volume as it cleared a week long lateral move. This is its second jump higher after breaking out from an 8 week cup base that formed at the 50 day EMA (44.70). Strong stocks make four to five bounces up off the short term MA after a breakout before they need a bit deeper test toward the 50 day EMA. CDIS was a bit below prior split prices, but it could still give us a split announcement.
Volume: 739.287K Avg Volume: 430.272K
BUY POINT: $50.25 Volume=450K Target=$58 Stop=$44.45
POSITION: KPQ FJ - June $50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cdis.html
Play Date: 02/15/2005
FDX (Federal Express--$97.93; +0.77; optionable): Air and freight delivery. Forecast mid-March. Still pinpointing the date.
BACKGROUND: Two splits in the past, one 1996 at $75. The more recent was announced 3-18-99 at $92. It is right there.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume started back up Thursday as FDX moved off the 18 day EMA (97.10). Still below average so no great move, but it is showing good action in the handle to its base. Just needs some volume. To recap: FDX is moving up off the 50 day EMA (96.09) , the level that acted as support in its two week handle to the 10 week base. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the pattern (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buying and sets up the breakout ahead.
Volume: 1.348M Avg Volume: 1.797M
BUY POINT: New: $98.88 (orig. $98.15) Volume=2.8M Target=$108 Stop=$95.78
POSITION: FDX GS - July $95c (72 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fdx.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/01/2005
MCO (Moodys Corp.--$85.82; +0.2; optionable): Corporate rankings, etc. Splits 2:1 on 5-19-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mco.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Working up off the 50 day EMA (84.20) but not attracting any volume the past two sessions, coming in with below average trade. It has recovered and is setting up the move off the 50 day. Needs to show some volume as it does. To recap: MCO was in a decent pattern in January and February. It gapped higher but then reversed and sold off through the 50 day EMA. It managed to recover that level and has been moving laterally. Looking to move in as it continues its bounce off the 50 day EMA.
Volume: 539.4K Avg Volume: 532.863K
BUY POINT: $85.88 Volume=822K Target=$91 Stop=$83.89
POSITION: MCO EQ - May $85c (61 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mco.html
Play Date: 02/28/2005
OPTN (Option Care--$19.28; -0.01; optionable): Home health care. Splits 3:2 on 4-1-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/optn.html
STATUS: Breakout test. OPTN has made the test of the huge breakout last week. It gapped out of a 10 week Cup w/handle base that followed on the heels of a 20 week double bottom. A nice base on base pattern that has worked to weed out the sellers. Excellent 5 to 1 accumulation in the most recent base, showing solid buying that led to the breakout. It has made the test, moving down to the 18 day EMA (18.68) and then bouncing on lower volume. A good test and now it looks ready. Just need to see the volume move back up as it continues the rebound.
Volume: 296.724K Avg Volume: 217.59K
BUY POINT: $19.45 Volume=335K Target=$23 Stop=$18.88
POSITION: UOC GD - July $20c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/optn.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/23/2005
FLIR (Flir Systems--$31.82; +0.4; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flir.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume was up and above average Thursday as FLIR moved off its test of the 18 day EMA (31.23) that is part of its larger base. Looks ready with this rising trade. To recap: The 50 day EMA, the important support level, is acting as support for the handle to the 7 month base. Kind of a jagged pattern, but it has nonetheless formed up well, using the 200 day SMA (29.02) as support on each low. That is where the big money steps in if they want to continue holding the stock. They have, and that has built this base. Solid 7 to 4 accumulation (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume) is an indication of that support as it shows net buying.
Volume: 688.661K Avg Volume: 526.681K
BUY POINT: $32.15 Volume=843K Target=$37 Stop=$30.89
POSITION: FFQ GX - July $32.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/flir.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
stock split
|
