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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: AET; BZH; CTSH; DHI; FLIR; IR; JCOM; PDS; PMTI; PTEN; SCHN; TOL; UNH; VMSI
NEW PLAYS:
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all positions but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
APPX: Forecast 4-20-05. Still holding over the 18 day EMA.
CDIS: Tentatively set for 5-2-05, but could see a split this week.
CMTL: Forecast 3-9-05 before the open.
CTSH: Forecast 4-11-05 or 4-19-05.
CVH: Tentatively forecast 5-3-05 before the open.
FDX: Forecast 3-17-05 before the open.
GPN: Forecast 3-21-05 after the close.
IHP: Forecast 4-8-05 in conjunction with a board meeting.
IR: Forecast 4-6-05 with a board meeting or 4-9-05 with earnings.
LEH: Tentatively forecast 3-24-05. Volume was up as it jumped over the 18 day EMA Friday. Making the move we wanted.
NBL: Starting back up off the 10 day EMA after testing the breakout.
OMC: Forecast 4-26.05 in conjunction with earnings or 5-24-05 with a board meeting.
ORLY: Forecast 4-26-05.
SIE: Forecast 4-25-05. Letting it make a test to enter positions after that big gap higher.
STR: Early May.
TOL: Forecast 3-17-05 in conjunction with its annual shareholders meeting.
TTC: Tentatively forecast 5-24-05.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 03/05/2005
COO (Cooper Companies--$82.95; +0.11; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 3-9-05 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings or on 3-22-5 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last split 2 for 1 on 11-25-02 after announcing the split in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $57.50. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 3-22-05 at 10:00 ET at which time additional shares will be authorized.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coo.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. COO is working laterally over the 10 day EMA (82.59) after a nice break higher in late January as it moved out of a 4 month flat base that formed over the 50 day EMA (77.90). Low volume the past four weeks as COO made the lateral consolidation; shows little selling as the stock is nice and quiet before the next move higher. Looking for an above average volume breakout from this lateral move to enter positions.
Volume: 462.8K Avg Volume: 585.82K
BUY POINT: $83.95 Volume=650K Target=$99 Stop=$82.38
POSITION: COO HQ - Aug. $85c (50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coo.html
Play Date: 03/05/2005
GVA (Granite Construction--$27.46; +1.40; optionable): Nationwide public and private heavy construction. No split announced in February so looking tentatively at 4-27-05 after the close.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 2-21-01 at $31.00.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gva.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Great name for a national construction company. Strong like bull. Anyway, a nice little 11 week base has formed around the 50 day EMA (25.99), this one following a larger 8 month pattern that broke higher in November. Strong 3 to 1 accumulation in the pattern shows net buyers in the base. Money flow is strong and has turned up ahead of the price, leading toward the next up leg. Volume jumped sharply Friday, moving well above average as GVA jumped off the 50 day EMA (25.99) that set the bottom of the handle. Looks ready for a buy.
Volume: 280.5K Avg Volume: 171.716K
BUY POINT: $27.79 Volume=200K Target=$31.95 Stop=$26.48
POSITION: GVA FE - June $25c (84 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gva.html
Play Date: 03/05/2005
KWK (Quicksilver Resources--$51.64; +1.43; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Forecast to announce a split on 3-9-05 after the close in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 6-1-04 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $25.50. The annual share holder meeting was on 5-18-04 at which time no additional shares were authorized.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kwk.html
STATUS: Breakout test. KWK broke out from a nicely formed 6 month ascending triangle base. It has rallied up the 10 day EMA (48.92) since the breakout and has just made its third test of that move. Strong stocks tend to make 4 to 5 bounces off the short term moving averages before needing a deeper test. That gives KWK plenty more upside on this move. Excellent relative strength breakout already. Looking to move in on a further volume break higher.
Volume: 377.7K Avg Volume: 581.607K
BUY POINT: $51.88 Volume=600K Target=$60 Stop=$49.89
POSITION: KWK FJ - June $50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kwk.html
Play Date: 03/05/2005
MW (Mens Wearhouse--$37.40; +0.35; optionable): Office apparel. Forecast to announce a split on 3-9-05 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 6-22-98 at $28.70.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mw.html
STATUS: Test breakout. They say the suit is back (at least that is what George Zimmer says on his commercials). The stores announced some impressive sales in early February and the stock broke out of an 11 week flat base on the news. The base formed right on top of the 50 day EMA (34.42), an important institutional support level. That is where they step in to buy. MW made a solid volume run in early February, and has now come back to tap toward the 50 day and then resume the move higher. We are expecting it to come back and tap toward the 10 day EMA (36.17) before continuing the move. Very strong volume Thursday as MW tried to make a strong upside break. A test would set the move better. Looking for that test and then a bounce back up. If it shoots higher from here on volume, we will look to start a partial and then see what a test brings us.
Volume: 282.9K Avg Volume: 286.679K
BUY POINT: $36.46 Volume=400K Target=$41 Stop=$35.58
POSITION: MW HG - Aug. $35c (80 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mw.html
Play Date: 03/05/2005
SSI (Spectrasite--$63.41; +1.32; optionable): Wireless tower operator. Forecast to announce a split on 3-14-05 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: A new issue in February 2003, SSI last split its stock 2:1 on 8-22-03 at $62.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssi.html
STATUS: Breakout test. SII broke out from an 11 week ascending triangle in mid-February. It has made some modest headway then moved laterally the past week as the 10 day EMA (61.85) rose to meet it. Friday that was enough to break it higher to a new all-time high on a very strong shot of above average volume. Accumulation is a strong 4 to 2 (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buyers. Money flow is strong. Relative strength is breaking out as well, a very good indication of the stock's strength. Looking to step in on a further move on some decent continued volume.
Volume: 628K Avg Volume: 395.59K
BUY POINT: $63.88 Volume=450K Target=$71 Stop=$61.78
POSITION: SSI GM - July $65c (46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ssi.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Buy not yet hit: Here are two that still look good and ready to make a break higher.
Play Date: 02/26/2005
CDIS (Cal Dive--$50.94; +0.77; optionable): Oil and gas equipment and services. Forecast to announce a split 3-1-05 after the close. No announcement after the close.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 10-18-00 at $54.50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cdis.html
After Hours: $50.96
STATUS: Breakout test. CDIS continued the bounce off the 18 day EMA (48.44) Friday on some continued solid above average volume. Looks ready to continue the breakout move. To recap: Last Friday CDIS broke higher once more, moving on stronger, above average volume as it cleared a week long lateral move. This is its second jump higher after breaking out from an 8 week cup base that formed at the 50 day EMA (44.94). Strong stocks make four to five bounces up off the short term MA after a breakout before they need a bit deeper test toward the 50 day EMA. CDIS was a bit below prior split prices, but it could still give us a split announcement.
Volume: 617.064K Avg Volume: 461.994K
BUY POINT: $51.11 Volume=450K Target=$59 Stop=$44.45
POSITION: KPQ FJ - June $50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cdis.html
Play Date: 02/15/2005
FDX (Federal Express--$99.60; +1.67; optionable): Air and freight delivery. Forecast mid-March. Still pinpointing the date.
BACKGROUND: Two splits in the past, one 1996 at $75. The more recent was announced 3-18-99 at $92. It is right there.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdx.html
After Hours: $99.60
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Friday FDX posted a decent price move, and we were itching to move in but the volume remained very low. Thus there was no surge of buying to show the big money was breaking it higher. Still a strong pattern, and if it can show us some upside volume it is a buy. To recap: FDX is moving up off the 50 day EMA (96.23) , the level that acted as support in its two week handle to the 10 week base. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the pattern (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buying and sets up the breakout ahead.
Volume: 1.266M Avg Volume: 1.869M
BUY POINT: New: $99.85 (orig. $98.15) Volume=2.8M Target=$108 Stop=$95.78
POSITION: FDX GS - July $95c (72 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fdx.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/01/2005
CWTR (Coldwater Creek--$29.03; +0.88; optionable): Catalog and mail order. Splits 3:2 on 3-21-05.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cwtr.html
STATUS: Cup. CWTR appears to be ready to make the run off the bottom of its 9 week base that formed using the 50 day EMA (27.59) as support. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the pattern shows buyers accumulating shares. Looking for some more volume as it continues higher.
Volume: 183.69K Avg Volume: 232.302K
BUY POINT: $29.22 Volume=300K Target=$34 Stop=$27.38
POSITION: UCJ GF - July $30c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cwtr.html
Play Date: 02/28/2005
OPTN (Option Care--$19.43; +0.17; optionable): Home health care. Splits 3:2 on 4-1-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/optn.html
STATUS: Breakout test. OPTN is toying with us, edging off the 18 day EMA (18.76) but not showing the volume yet for us to move in. Still looks super, ready to jump back up off this breakout test. To recap: OPTN has made the test of the huge breakout. It gapped out of a 10 week Cup w/handle base that followed on the heels of a 20 week double bottom. A nice base on base pattern that has worked to weed out the sellers. Excellent 5 to 1 accumulation in the most recent base, showing solid buying that led to the breakout. It has made the test, moving down to the 18 day EMA. A good test and now it looks ready. Just need to see the volume move back up as it continues the rebound.
Volume: 199.008K Avg Volume: 220.318K
BUY POINT: $19.65 Volume=335K Target=$23 Stop=$18.88
POSITION: UOC GD - July $20c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/optn.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/03/2005
APPB (Applebees Intl.--$28.37; -0.07; optionable): Fern bar restaurants
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/appb.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice tight doji on the 10 day EMA (28.34) Friday as volume edged a bit higher though it remained below average. Still looks excellent and just need to see the bounce on some volume. To recap: APPB blasted out of a 10 month double bottom with handle base in late January on some excellent earnings news. It made a test of the move in late February and shot higher again on another good volume surge. It has eased back the past two sessions to test the 10 day EMA, holding right over the top of the high on the initial breakout run. Strong money flow is leading higher, and after this test we expect APPB to continue the breakout move. Solid and at an all-time high.
Volume: 510.923K Avg Volume: 728.966K
BUY POINT: $28.75 Volume=900K Target=$33 Stop=$27.94
POSITION: AQB HE - Aug. $25c (97 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/appb.html
Play Date: 03/03/2005
LCAV (LCA-Vision--$29.84; +0.12; optionable): Medical practitioners
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lcav.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Tried to continue the move Friday but volume fell back below average and it stalled out holding flat. Still looks ready to go. To recap: Excellent breakout in late February from a flat base netted us a nice gain. It has come back to test that move, holding above the 18 day EMA (28.14) Thursday on the low and then rallying for a nice gain on rising, above average volume. Strong money flow and relative strength broke out on the first move and looks ready to do it again. Ready to move in on another nice decent volume move higher.
Volume: 275.635K Avg Volume: 390.835K
BUY POINT: $29.88 Volume=501K Target=$34.75 Stop=$28.55
POSITION: JVQ FF - June $30c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lcav.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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