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us stock market, top stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Monday: COGN; FFIV; PMTI; URBN; WYNN; XXIA
Best Plays:
1) ORBK: Volume is up as the stock starts the breakout move.
2) CMCSA: Another volume break higher.
3) ATHR: Showing excellent money flow.
4) JAS: Making the move on volume.
5) PLLL: The spring is coiling for the next move.
6) CAKE: Breaking to a new high.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/07/2005
ATHR (Atheros Communications--$13.25; +0.26; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/athr.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. A new issue in February 2004, ATHR proceeded to fall from 18 to 6 (18 up price weeks on rising volume to 6 down price weeks on rising volume). That was the bottom back last summer and it rallied back up through December. It peaked there and then formed a 10 week cup with handle base. It broke out in late February, rallied to 14, and as come back on low volume to test the move, landing at the 18 day EMA (12.79). It has held and looks ready to rebound; just needs some volume. Accumulation is a excellent at 4 to 1 (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows solid buying in this first real base. Strong money flow is surging higher ahead of price. Looking for ATHR to follow it back up.
Volume: 425.919K Avg Volume: 567.909K
BUY POINT: $13.66 Volume=700K Target=$16.45 Stop=$13.05
POSITION: QRA FV - June $12.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/athr.html
Play Date: 03/07/2005
CHRW (C.H. Robinson Worldwide--$55.40; +1.14; optionable): Air delivery and freight
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chrw.html
After Hours: $55.38
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice 10 week base has formed around the 50 day EMA (53.21), ready to move to another all-time high. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation shows net buying during the base. A solid market leader, all CHRW has to do is deliver the volume on the move through the buy point. Wow. That was a really weak joke attempt. But this is not a weak stock. And yet another one.
Volume: 424.563K Avg Volume: 546.409K
BUY POINT: $55.65 Volume=800K Target=$63 Stop=$54.09
POSITION: CJQ HK - Aug. $55c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/chrw.html
Play Date: 03/07/2005
CMCSA (Comcast--$33.43; +0.64; optionable): Cable TV
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmcsa.html
After Hours: $33.42
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CMCSA has formed a big 14 month base, one that is very easy to pick out with its smooth cup and 10 week handle formed over the 50 day EMA (32.20). Monday it made the jump higher on some rising, slightly above average volume, moving up close to the buy point. A stronger volume push through the top of the handle (the lateral move where the last sellers get frustrated and exit) is where we step in. Strong 17 to 9 accumulation in the base shows plenty of net buyers. Looks ready.
Volume: 8.641M Avg Volume: 7.43M
BUY POINT: $33.72 Volume=10M Target=$38 Stop=$32.48
POSITION: CCQ GZ - July $32.50c (68 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cmcsa.html
Play Date: 03/07/2005
ORBK (Orbotech--$23.58; +1.18; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/orbk.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Big volume Monday as ORBK started the breakout move from its 14 month base. It gave back almost half the move by the close. Accumulation in the pattern is excellent at 18 to 9 (18 up price weeks on rising volume to 9 down price weeks on rising volume), showing a lot of buyers as it consolidated. Money flow is strong and leading higher ahead of the stock. ORBK is showing every intention of following that money flow higher.
Volume: 442.471K Avg Volume: 152.772K
BUY POINT: $23.75 Volume=229K Target=$27.95 Stop=$22.55
POSITION: OKQ GX - July $22.50c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/orbk.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Not yet entered:
Play Date: 02/26/2005
CAKE (Cheesecake Factory--$34.80; +0.76; optionable): Restaurants
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cake.html
After Hours: $34.75
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. After a gap lower Friday and solid rebound when there was an issue about lease accounting. The stock seems to have recovered quite nicely, breaking to a new all-time high Monday on lower though still slightly above average volume. Cannot argue with the buyers, so looking to move in on a further move that continues to show some good volume.
Volume: 682.497K Avg Volume: 604.727K
BUY POINT: New: $34.98 (orig. $34.32) Volume=650K Target=$39 Stop=$33.11
POSITION: CZK GX - July $33.38c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cake.html
Play Date: 02/26/2005
COHR (Coherent--$30.78; +0.32; optionable): Lasers, laser based systems, precision optics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cohr.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume was up a bit but still below average as COHR again banged into 31 on the high and backed off. Money flow continues to rise as it makes this lateral move, and it looks as if it is going to keep banging away until it makes the breakout. To recap: COHR is working on its second base after coming off the bottom of a long, long 5 year correction. The current 13 month pattern is nicely formed with the right leg dipping below the left and the handle holding the 50 day EMA (29.70). The 50 day EMA is a good point to hold as it is a key institutional level; now that COHR has recovered it in the base it is holding it. Good low volume in the handle is the action you want to see as it shows very few sellers as the stock fades slightly. Strong 13 to 7 accumulation in the base shows solid net buying during the base and is setting the foundation for the breakout. Money flow is excellent, continuing to rise higher even as the stock has moved laterally and lower in this handle. That positive divergence makes us look for a breakout ahead.
Volume: 122.985K Avg Volume: 152.636K
BUY POINT: $31.05 Volume=238K Target=$36.88 Stop=$29.55
POSITION: HRQ HF - Aug. $30c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cohr.html
Play Date: 03/05/2005
JAS (Jo-Ann Stores--$30.60; +0.52; optionable): Specialty retail. Earnings 3-7-05 after the close
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jas.html
After Hours: $30
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume was up and JAS was moving toward the breakout Monday when the bell rang. Looks ready to make the move and we will be moving in on a further move on continued decent trade. To recap: JAS is working on the handle to an 11 month base that formed roughly using the 200 day SMA (27.18) as support. That is a key support level as that is where the institutions either step in to buy or start selling. The fact that it held there and rallied to form the rest of the base is a good sign. Accumulation is a solid 12 to 7 (12 up price weeks on rising volume to 7 down price weeks on rising volume), setting up the breakout.
Volume: 141K Avg Volume: 66.045K
BUY POINT: $30.78 Volume=109K Target=$36 Stop=$29.38
POSITION: JAS GF - July $30c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jas.html
Play Date: 02/26/2005
OTIV (On Track Innovations--$12.70; +0.23; no options): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/otiv.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume moved up from next to nothing levels as OTIV pushed off the 18 day EMA (12.35). Getting ready for the break higher to follow that money flow higher. To recap: OTIV has formed this nice 8 week pattern over the 50 day EMA (11.75), an important institutional support level. This short base is acting as the right shoulder to a much larger 14 month reverse head and shoulders base. Outstanding 16 to 6 accumulation in the larger base, showing a lot of buying as the stock consolidated and weeded out the weaker holders. Excellent money flow is leading higher even as the stock moves laterally the past two months. Volume dried up the past three weeks as it formed the handle, another sign that there are few sellers, and it often is the quiet before the storm.
Volume: 74.617K Avg Volume: 109.09K
BUY POINT: $13.05 Volume=174K Target=$15.65 Stop=$12.14
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/otiv.html
Play Date: 03/05/2005
PLLL (Parallel Petroleum--$7.07; -0.02; no options): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plll.html
After Hours: $7.01
STATUS: Breakout test. Very nice doji Monday on very low volume as PLLL continues its very nice pullback to test its very nice breakout and run. Getting ready for the next leg. To recap: PLLL basted out of a 7.5 month flat base to start February, rallying from 5.50 to 7.50 on some solid volume. Accumulation in the base was a solid 9 to 6, setting up the breakout. It has spent the past week testing the move on lower, average volume, holding the 10 day EMA (6.98). Looking for this test of the 10 day to hold and send the stock on its next run. The first test of the breakout is one of our favorite entry points. Strong money flow and relative strength near a breakout point again. Looking to move in as it bounces higher and volume jumps as well.
Volume: 175.088K Avg Volume: 183.045K
BUY POINT: $7.32 Volume=288K Target=$8.78 Stop=$6.89
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/plll.html
Play Date: 03/05/2005
STMP (Stamps.com--$17.56; +0.06; optionable): Internet based postage solutions.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stmp.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Another very nice doji over the 10 day EMA (17.37) on low volume is setting up the breakout move. Just being patient and waiting for the volume to break higher along with the stock. To recap: A far cry from its old 1999 high near $200, STMP is finally getting it back together. At one-tenth of the price mind you, but forming a nice 6 month base. Good rally up in February to form the right side of the base with volume swelling as it made the move. Now a good three week lateral move down to the 10 day EMA on lower volume as it forms the handle where the last sellers are shaken out. Then we look for a high volume run through the buy point. Accumulation in the base is a solid 7 to 4 (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buying. Used the 200 day SMA (13.62) as support for the base, an important institutional level. Strong money flow is leading higher. Relative strength is solid.
Volume: 260.118K Avg Volume: 248.363K
BUY POINT: $18.38 Volume=385K Target=$21.98 Stop=$17.27
POSITION: JXQ HW - Aug. $17.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/stmp.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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