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stock split, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: CNX; FFIV; JCOM; MDRX; STLD; URBN; VPI; ALVR; HE
Thursday night play results:
IEX: Another nice doji at the 10 day EMA
NSM: Gapped higher but could not hold the move w/chips struggling.
RBK: Rallied through the buy point but volume was not there and it faded back. Still looks ready.
STK: Held the 10 day EMA on low volume, still ready to make its move.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/12/2005
CHD (Church & Dwight--$35.37; -0.02; optionable): Cleaning products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chd.html
STATUS: Test breakout. CHD split in September in the middle of a double bottom with handle base. It broke out in December, and is now making its second test of the 50 day EMA (34.51) since the breakout move, holding some price support at 35 instead of falling down to the 50 day EMA last week. Indeed, volume jumped Thursday as it held that level and bounced. Nice pullback on mostly lower volume, and CHD tends to blast off after 4 to 5 weeks of testing. It is right at that point now, and with strong money flow still leading it could be ready to make its next move this week.
Volume: 226.3K Avg Volume: 262.272K
BUY POINT: $36.05 Volume=393K Target=$42.45 Stop=$34.96
POSITION: CHD GG - July $35c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/chd.html
Play Date: 03/12/2005
KRY (Crystellex Intl.--$3.93; +0.13; no options): Gold
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kry.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume jumped back above average Friday as KRY moved off of its 10 day EMA (3.74) test, part of the handle to its 16 week base. It has shown very good volume this month as it moved up to finish the right side of the pattern and then started the test last week to form the handle and shake out the last sellers. Positive accumulation in the base and strong money flow is leading higher even as it made this slightly pullback. Good action as it used the 200 day SMA (3.10) as the very bottom of the base and bounced smartly off that level, touching it intraday just one session. May take a couple more sessions to complete the handle, but with the Friday volume we want to be ready.
Volume: 691.3K Avg Volume: 501.09K
BUY POINT: $4.05 Volume=715K Target=$5.06 Stop=$3.84
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/kry.html
Play Date: 03/12/2005
PACT (Pacificnet--$10.06; +0.67; no options): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pact.html
After Hours: $10.06
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume was up last week as PACT tries the breakout move from its 18 week base. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying as it formed the base. That is setting up the breakout, and the swelling volume is a signal the move is coming. Excellent money flow is surging higher ahead of the stock, clearing the way for the breakout.
Volume: 1.356M Avg Volume: 644.136K
BUY POINT: $10.48 Volume=966K Target=$12.55 Stop=$9.75
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pact.html
Play Date: 03/12/2005
VLO (Valero Energy--$68.93; -0.06; optionable): Oil and gas refining. Looking at mid April. Want to be ready for a rebound move while we pinpoint the date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 0n 7-15-04 at $76.60. Last week the CEO said VLO was considering another split in the future.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vlo.html
After Hours: $69
STATUS: After a screaming run from January to early March VLO is finally taking a breather. Not much of one thus far, however. it has sold to the 18 day EMA (68.29), tapping that level on the intraday lows the past two sessions and showing a nice tight doji Friday. Volume was up as it rolled back down from 75; there may be more selling ahead for this stock, but it is in a unique position among the many energy stocks as it operates refineries and the main problem with energy is the lack of refining capacity. It may take more time to base, but this stock can reverse right back up. If we see a good volume move off the 18 day EMA and the energy stocks continue to improve as they did Friday we will look at a partial position and then add more at the next good entry point.
Volume: 8.413M Avg Volume: 3.698M
BUY POINT: $70.38 Volume=5.5M Target=$81 Stop=$68.05
POSITION: VLO FN - June $70c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/vlo.html
Play Date: 03/12/2005
WIND (Wind River Systems--$14.98; -0.17; optionable): Business software integration
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wind.html
STATUS: Breakout test. WIND surged to start march, blasting out of a 14 week double bottom with handle base, showing some tremendous volume as it made the move. it rallied from 14 to 16 in short order on continued solid trade. Last week in the market selling it started testing that move, coming back to tap intraday at the 18 day EMA (14.68) on the Friday low and snapping back. Volume was very low on the test, indicating very little selling of positions taken on the breakout move. The first test of a breakout is one of our favorite entry points, and we are ready to move in on an above average volume rebound through the buy point. Accumulation in the base is a solid 4 to 2, and money flow is surging ahead of price. Relative strength broke out on the breakout move, a good corroboration. Looks nice.
Volume: 648.693K Avg Volume: 724.318K
BUY POINT: $15.32 Volume=900K Target=$18 Stop=$14.55
POSITION: QWV HC - Aug. $15c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wind.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock split
stock recommendation
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