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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: USNA; TTEC; BEAV; PACT
Weekend play results:
CHD: Gapped higher on volume but closed near the bottom of the range. Still ready.
KRY: Still working on the handle.
PACT: Gapped higher on volume and ran, but gave much of the move back.
VLO: Sold below the 18 day EMA, not the move we wanted to see following the doji.
WIND: Another tap of the 18 day EMA. Still looks ready to try the bounce.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/14/2005
ABFS (Arkansas Best--$44.65; +0.34; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abfs.html
After Hours: $44.59
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A very nice low volume handle has formed the past two weeks, working to shake out the last sellers to its 11 week base. A strong runner from May to December 2004, ABFS needed this base to take a rest, shake out the profit takers, and set up for its next breakout and run. Strong 4 to 2 accumulation in the pattern (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buyers, setting up the breakout. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price even as it moves laterally. Looks ready for a good breakout.
Volume: 237.521K Avg Volume: 341.545K
BUY POINT: $45.28 Volume=512K Target=$51 Stop=$43.68
POSITION: FDQ FI - June $45c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/abfs.html
Play Date: 03/14/2005
MDY (S&P Mid-Cap Spdr--$123.61; +1.02; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mdy.html
After Hours: $123.63
STATUS: Breakout test. MDY broke out from an 8 week cup with handle base in late February, prompting a nice run to 125. It has come back to test the move the past week, holding the 18 day EMA (122.48). Volume surged back in Monday as the index bounced. That upside volume shows us buyers moving in. Looking to pick up positions on a continued volume move.
Volume: 2.744M Avg Volume: 1.38M
BUY POINT: $123.88 Volume=2.1M Target=$129.45 Stop=$122.42
POSITION: DIX FR - June $122c (67 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mdy.html
Play Date: 03/14/2005
NMGA (Neiman Marcus Group--$74.01; +1.15; optionable): High end department stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nmga.html
STATUS: Breakout test. NMGA reported some solid retail sales to start the month, and that news broke it out from a 10 week cup with handle base that formed over the 50 day EMA (70.75), an important institutional support level. Strong 4 to 1 accumulation in the pattern shows a lot of buying. After the breakout that was truncated when the market started to sell, it held the 18 day EMA (72.67) on the recent pullback. Volume jumped up Monday as it moved off that support level. Strong money flow is leading higher and relative strength is ready to breakout. Looks very good here.
Volume: 211.9K Avg Volume: 184.772K
BUY POINT: $74.54 Volume=277K Target=$82.45 Stop=$72.32
POSITION: NMG GO - July $75c (51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nmga.html
Play Date: 03/14/2005
ULTI (Ultimate Software--$14.10; +0.40; optionable): Payroll and workforce management systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/ulti.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume jumped Monday as ULTI started the breakout move from a 14 week base that formed using the 200 day SMA (12.22), a key institutional support level, as the bottom. Accumulation in the pattern is a solid 5 to 2, and this base formed as the end of a larger 13 month pattern. That gives plenty of time to work through the sellers and set up the next move. Looking for continued strong volume as it continues the breakout move.
Volume: 214.254K Avg Volume: 116.136K
BUY POINT: $14.22 Volume=160K Target=$16.82 Stop=$13.34
POSITION: JUL HV - Aug. $12.50c (76 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ulti.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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