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stock split, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: BEAV; MDRX; URBN; ISSX
Monday night play results:
ABFS: Still in the handle, testing the 10 day EMA on lower volume.
MDY: Gapped higher but sold back toward the 18 day EMA.
NMGA: Volume was strong as it moved higher off the 18 day EMA.
ULTI: Gapped higher but volume was not there and it faded. Still solid.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/15/2005
HLEX (Healthextras--$16.80; -0.08; optionable): Pharmacy benefit management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hlex.html
After Hours: $16.80
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Low volume the past week as HLEX holds over the 18 day EMA (16.59), forming a higher low in its 10 week base. Solid 3 to 0 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buyers in this consolidation. It is pinching between the 18 day and 17, the flat top of the pattern. This has formed after a 7 month cup with handle; this combination can produce big breakouts and runs higher. Looking for volume to surge back in as HLEX moves through the buy point. Strong money flow is leading higher, and we are watching for the price move to follow it.
Volume: 123.25K Avg Volume: 315.363K
BUY POINT: $17.12 Volume=473K Target=$20.55 Stop=$16.64
POSITION: HUE FW - June $17.50c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hlex.html
Play Date: 03/15/2005
LLL (L-3 Communications--$75.23; -0.49; optionable): L-3 Communications. Somewhat of a wildcard as it is a bit early, but a nice pattern. Looking for a split announcement in April if it gives us a run.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 4-32-02 at $125.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lll.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A nice 11 week base has formed along the 50 day EMA (71.85), an important support level where the big money steps in to buy or sells. They supported the stock, and it has finished its base. It is working laterally on lower, below average volume as it has formed the handle to the base, the lateral and lower move where the stock shakes out the last sellers. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation in the base has set up the breakout. Relative strength is ready to make the breakout, a good sign for the stock. Looking for a solid volume jump as it makes the breakout move.
Volume: 388.5K Avg Volume: 801.909K
BUY POINT: $77.02 Volume=1.2M Target=$83.95 Stop=$74.48
POSITION: LLL GO - July $75c (59 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/lll.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/15/2005
MHP (McGraw-Hill--$88.40; -0.85; optionable): Publishing books
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mhp.html
STATUS: Put. After a strong trend up the 50 day EMA (91.48) through the start of this month MHP imploded through the 50 day last week as it reduced its growth forecast based on its acquisitions. Massive volume as it fell. It rebounded Friday and Monday on lower and lower trade, then tapped at the 10 day EMA on the Tuesday high (90.18) and rolled over for a loss. Looking to move in for a test of the recent low near 86 as it continues lower. A move to the targets grabs us a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 965.6K Avg Volume: 762.846K
BUY POINT: $88.24 Volume=1.1M Target=$86.05 Stop=$88.67
POSITION: MHP PR - Apr. $90p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mhp.html
Play Date: 03/15/2005
UPS (United Parcel Service--$75.38; -1.16; optionable): Air delivery and freight.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/ups.html
After Hours: $75.38
STATUS: Put. Brown is looking a bit brown right now. After peaking in mid-December it gapped lower in mid-January on a profit warning. It sold to the 200 day SMA (76.92) and has spent the past 2 months trying to recover that level and move higher. It looks as if it has failed. Money flow is diving ahead of the stock, and after lower, below average volume the past several weeks as it tried to recover it has turned lower on a strong surge of volume. Looking to move in on further strong volume. A move to the target gets us a 55%ish gain.
Volume: 5.343M Avg Volume: 3.388M
BUY POINT: $75.05 Volume=4M Target=$73 Stop=$75.66
POSITION: UPS PO - Apr. $75p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ups.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock split
stock recommendation
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