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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: COGN; CRZO; GMT; KOMG; USU; VPI; ISSX
Thursday night play results:
LNCR: Nice doji on average volume above the 10 day EMA.
PD: Gapped higher but volume dropped and it slid back. Still looks ready.
PRZ: Low volume continues as it still works on the handle.
TDY: Volume was strong but the stock eased back after the Thursday bounce.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/19/2005
HOT (Starwood Hotel & Resorts--$59.34; +0.81; optionable): Hotels and resorts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hot.html
After Hours: $59.30
STATUS: Ascending base. Volume jumped back above average Friday as HOT continued its move off the 50 day EMA test (57.91), still working on the latter part of its 12 week base. The pattern has formed above the 50 day EMA (57.91), a key support level. Accumulation is excellent at 5 to 1 (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume), showing solid buying at the 50 day EMA. Strong money flow is leading higher even as the stock moves laterally in a narrow range. Very strong and looks ready to make the break higher.
Volume: 1.8M Avg Volume: 1.531M
BUY POINT: $60.05 Volume=2.3M Target=$68 Stop=$58.11
POSITION: HOT HL - Aug. $60c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hot.html
Play Date: 03/19/2005
IJR (Ishares S&P 600 Smallcap--$161.26; -0.45; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ijr.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. After the breakout in early March the small caps have sold, but they have held the 50 day EMA (161.22) unlike the large cap indices. After two weeks of downside we are looking for a bounce. Volume was up to average Friday as IJR tapped close to the 50 day SMA (160.38) and rebounded. Want to see volume as it bounces.
Volume: 407.8K Avg Volume: 392.925K
BUY POINT: $161.88 Volume=589K Target=$167 Stop=$161.05
POSITION: IJO HE - Aug. $161c (63 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ijr.html
Play Date: 03/19/2005
IVN (Ivanhoe Mines--$8.40; +0.04; optionable): Industrial materials and minerals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ivn.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume surged in late February as IVN broke out of its 14 week flat base formed above the 50 day EMA (7.57). Strong 5 to 2 accumulation in the base shows net buyers, setting up the breakout and subsequent run. Excellent pullback to the 10 day EMA (8.36) as IVN holds most of its breakout move. That shows very few willing to sell the shares purchased during the base and breakout. Money flow leads higher, and relative strength is ready for the breakout. One of the nicer pullback we have seen in awhile. Volume was back up to average Friday as IVN showed a very tight doji. Looks ready to bounce on volume.
Volume: 307K Avg Volume: 289.636K
BUY POINT: $8.62 Volume=434K Target=$10.35 Stop=$8.32
POSITION: IVN IU - Sept. $7.50c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ivn.html
Play Date: 03/19/2005
POOL (SCP Pool--$32.63; +0.13; optionable): Wholesale distributor of swimming pool supplies.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pool.html
After Hours: $32.55
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Summer is coming and POOL is getting ready for the sun. It is testing the February breakout from a base on base pattern from July to February (a double bottom followed by a short cup with handle). It gapped higher in February and ran to 35 before the market selling. It has sold on lower, below average volume, filling the gap and tapping the 50 day EMA (32.26) on the low and bounced for a modest gain as volume shot higher Friday. Looking for it to move back through the 10 and 18 day EMA (33.02) on continued strong volume to move in after this good test.
Volume: 628.652K Avg Volume: 235.909K
BUY POINT: $33.11 Volume=354K Target=$38 Stop=$32.05
POSITION: QCL GF - July $30c (90 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pool.html
Play Date: 03/19/2005
SWN (Southwestern Energy--$58.65; +1.45; optionable): Gas utilities. Splits 2:1 on a date yet to be announced.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/swn.html
STATUS: Breakout test. SWN broke out from a short 9 week double bottom with handle base in early February, blasting higher on solid volume. It rallied easily over 60 and is now testing that move, coming back the past week to tap the 50 day EMA (55.46). It has moved laterally over that support on low trade as the market sold. Thursday and Friday volume surged above average as the stock jumped higher Friday. Looks ready to rally once more, and when SWN moves it can cover a lot of ground quickly.
Volume: 711K Avg Volume: 541.24K
BUY POINT: $58.78 Volume=550K Target=$64 Stop=$57.54
POSITION: SWN FK - June $55c (75 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/swn.html
Play Date: 03/19/2005
TRMB (Trimble Navigation--$36.35; -0.01; optionable): Guidance systems for commercial and government applications in construction, agriculture, military, etc. Forecast to announce a split 4-25-05
BACKGROUND: TRMB last announced a 3:2 split (its only one) on 2-3-04 at $38.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trmb.html
After Hours: $36.35
STATUS: Ascending base. Volume is surging as TRMB moves off the 50 day EMA (34.84) in its 7 week base formed above the 50 day. This is one of the periodic tests of the 50 day as following TRMB's September breakout from a larger 8 month base. Strong money flow and relative strength ready for another breakout have set up the move. With the constant high in the base and a series of higher lows the breakout can be strong. The surging volume indicates the pressure is building.
Volume: 833.401K Avg Volume: 313.032K
BUY POINT: $36.88 Volume=470K Target=$42.95 Stop=$34.82
POSITION: TUH HG - Aug. $35c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/trmb.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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