us stock market, stock recommendation

Begin part 3 of 3

THE PLAYS

Good movers: LCAV; VLO; VMSI

Tuesday night play results:
COH: Tested lower, still holding near the 50 day EMA. Has to show us the upside move.
DADE: Plunging through the 50 day EMA. Next test will be of the breakdown.
GET: Low volume continues as it tries to hold the 50 day EMA.
VMSI: Good volume as it continues its strong move off the 50 day EMA.

New Plays:

Upside:

Play Date: 03/23/2005
ANTP (Phazar--$21.66; +1.61; no options): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/antp.html
After Hours: $21.67
STATUS: Test50 day EMA. ANTP screamed higher in December 2005, peaking near 50. It rolled over with the market and sold steadily to the end of February, landing near 15. Big haircut. It has spent the past four weeks working laterally on very low volume. The past two sessions volume has come back to life, moving back above average as the stock moves over the 50 day EMA (21.02). Money flow has turned up ahead of the stock and it looks as if ANTP is starting to follow. Looking to step in with an aggressive move if volume remains strong. Will look again on a move through the 50 day SMA (22.71). Showing some of that momentum and we are looking to cash in on some of it.
Volume: 1.146M Avg Volume: 991.636K
BUY POINT: $21.94 Volume=1.2M Target=$27 Stop=$20.68
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/antp.html

Play Date: 03/23/2005
BOL (Bausch & Lomb--$73.98; +0.71; optionable): Contact lens supplies, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bol.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Nice volume Wednesday as BOL held the 18 day EMA (73.34) and started higher, making a higher low in its 7 week base. This base followed an 18 week cup with handle base and breakout; when this pattern follows a breakout it typically leads to strong upside gains. Positive 3 to 2 accumulation in the base (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buyers in the current pattern, setting up the next move. Strong money flow is leading higher ahead of price and relative strength is making the breakout ahead of the stock. Super.
Volume: 573.4K Avg Volume: 468.318K
BUY POINT: $75.05 Volume=700K Target=$82 Stop=$73.22
POSITION: BOL GO - July $75c (51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bol.html

Play Date: 03/23/2005
CMVT (Comverse Technology--$25.12; +0.57; optionable): Telecom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmvt.html
After Hours: $25.16
STATUS: Breakout test. Super breakout last week on tremendous volume took CMVT out of nice 12 week cup with handle base. It rallied to 26 and has testing back to the 10 day EMA (24.61) on lower, below average volume. It held that level and started to bounce back up Wednesday. Accumulation is excellent at 4 to 1 (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume), showing a lot of buyers. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout. Looks ready to continue the breakout move.
Volume: 1.86M Avg Volume: 2.076M
BUY POINT: $25.33 Volume=3M Target=$29 Stop=$24.48
POSITION: CQV GE - July $25c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cmvt.html

Play Date: 03/23/2005
PIXR (Pixar--$92.25; +0.05; optionable): Computer generated movies. Splits 2:1 on 4-19-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pixr.html
After Hours: $93.80
STATUS: Cup w/handle. PIXR left us at the alter earlier in the month, but then came through after the close Wednesday. It was up after hours near the breakout point from its 15 week base that formed over the 50 day EMA (89.21). Accumulation is positive at 4 to 3, showing net buyers. Excellent relative strength. Looking for a strong volume move through the buy point and want to see it hold after that first surge in the morning.
Volume: 379.156K Avg Volume: 513.454K
BUY POINT: $94.05 Volume=770K Target=$104 Stop=$91.22
POSITION: PQJ GS - July $95c (45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pixr.html

Downside:

Play Date: 03/23/2005
QCOM (Qualcom--$36.31; +0.31; optionable): Telecom equipment and licensing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qcom.html
STATUS: Put. Nasty gap lower in mid-January as QCOM warned about its future earnings. It moved through the 200 day SMA (38.46) and sold to 34. The past four weeks it has recovered to test the 200 day but is failing once more. Tried to bounce off 36 early this week but rolled over Tuesday. Wednesday it showed a low volume bounce for a fractional gain. Money flow is tanking, and we are looking for QCOM to continue lower to 34 once more. A move to the target gives us a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 12.697M Avg Volume: 16.5M
BUY POINT: $35.97 Volume=17M Target=$34 Stop=$36.72
POSITION: AAO QU - May $17.50p (-55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/qcom.html

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

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