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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: MHP
New Downside Plays:
Play Date: 03/29/2005
AN (Autonation--$18.82; -0.20; optionable): Auto dealerships
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/an.html
STATUS: Put. Double topped in February and March at 20 then crashed through the 50 day EMA (19.14) last week. A low volume rebound has carried back up to test that level, doing so Monday on the intraday high. Tuesday it rolled over on stronger, above average volume. Failed test, the old kiss goodbye and ready to follow the money flow lower. A move to the target nets us a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 1.752M Avg Volume: 1.165M
BUY POINT: $18.75 Volume=1.1M Target=$17.73 Stop=$19.15
POSITION: AN QD - May $20p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/an.html
Play Date: 03/29/2005
RRC (Range Resources--$22.85; -0.84; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rrc.html
STATUS: Put. After a double top to end February and in mid-March and RRC is breaking through the 50 day EMA (23.14) on rising, above average volume. As with many energy stocks it is under pressure, but they have the ability to turn right back up after a hard fall. Looking to step in on a further move lower on continued solid downside trade. A move to the targets nets us a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 750.5K Avg Volume: 700K
BUY POINT: $22.74 Volume=700K Target=$21.22 Stop=$23.34
POSITION: RRC QX - May $22.50p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rrc.html
New Leaders:
Play Date: 03/29/2005
RRGB (Red Robin Gourmet--$50.42; +0.19; optionable): Restaurants
BACKGROUND: A new issue in 2003 with no split history, but the way it is moving ti will have one. Researching the possible announcement date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rrgb.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. As with many restaurants and retailers, there were some lease accounting issues announced Tuesday, but as we have seen with other strong retailers, that is not slowing them down. Indeed, RRGB managed a modest gain on strong volume Tuesday in the midst of this news as well as a selling market. Nice 12 week base formed around the 50 day EMA (47.70), a level that the indices have been unable to hold. That shows the stock's relative strength. Accumulation is positive in the pattern, setting up the breakout. Want to see that volume strong again as it continues its move to the breakout.
Volume: 485.2K Avg Volume: 210K
BUY POINT: $51.05 Volume=300K Target=$60 Stop=$48.55
POSITION: QZR IJ - Sept. $50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rrgb.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all positions but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
AHC: Forecast 4-26-05
APPX: Forecast 4-20-05
ARO: No split announcement 3-10-05. Was a bit early for ARO to announce another split, but with the pattern we wanted to be ready to move in on a breakout. Trying to hold up but volume was up as it sold.
BOL: Forecast 4-19-05 before the open.
CTSH: Forecast 4-11-05 or 4-19-05.
CVH: Tentatively forecast 5-3-05 before the open.
ESRX: Forecast 4-26-05.
GPN: No split announced 3-21-05. Still holding onto the gain after the big gap up on the strong earnings.
GVA: Forecast 4-27-05
IEX: Forecast to announce on or about 4-21-05
IHP: Forecast 4-8-05 in conjunction with a board meeting. Struggling as it moves through the 18 day EMA on rising trade.
IR: Forecast 4-6-05 with a board meeting or 4-9-05 with earnings. Did not hold at the 50 day EMA. Will need to form back up.
JEC: Forecast in early May. Had some employees killed at the BP plant in Texas. Breaking through the 50 day EMA.
LEH: Tentatively forecast 3-24-05. No split announcement. Still holding at the 50 day EMA and keeping its uptrend.
MON: Forecast 4-6-05
OMC: Forecast 4-26.05 in conjunction with earnings or 5-24-05 with a board meeting. Another nice doji at the 50 day EMA.
ORLY: Forecast 4-26-05. Still holding the low volume test of the 50 day EMA. Want to see a move over the 18 day EMA at 49.69 on an above average volume session to move in.
PD: Forecast in late April. Diving on heavy volume.
PSUN: Forecast early May. Still in the full test of the breakout, coming back to the 50 day EMA.
SFD: Forecast early May. Not getting it together. Going to drop until it does.
SIE: Forecast 4-25-05
STR: Early May. Still holding the 18 day EMA in a test of the strong breakout.
TRMB: Forecast 4-25-05. So much for the nice pattern as it dives to the 200 day SMA on strong volume. Dropping for now.
UNH: Forecast 4-14-05 before the open or 5-12-05 with a board meeting.
VLO: Forecast mid-April. Selling through the 18 day EMA on rising, above average volume.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 03/29/2005
APPX (American Pharmaceutical--$51.34; -1.31; optionable): Drugs. Forecast to announce a split on in May and working to pinpoint a date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 3-4-02 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $52. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/appx.html
STATUS: Breakout test. APPX is moving laterally over the 18 day EMA (50.65) in a 10 week lateral test of its huge gap higher in January on the approval of its breast cancer drug. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the lateral move shows buyers still using the consolidation as an opportunity to move into the stock. Strong money flow is leading higher and relative strength is ready to breakout; a solid stock in a weak market. Volume has been predominantly well below average volume on this move, showing very little selling after the big move. Volume jumped last week as the stock jumped off the 18 day EMA. It has tested back the past two sessions, holding near support on very low volume. Looking for a high volume jump off this level to enter.
Volume: 401.3K Avg Volume: 650K
BUY POINT: $53.35 Volume=975K Target=$61.45 Stop=$49.78
POSITION: AQO GK - July $55c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/appx.html
Play Date: 03/29/2005
CNMD (Conmed--$30.16; +0.33; optionable): Medical appliances and equipment. Forecast to announce a in early May in conjunction with earnings or on May 17 with its annual shareholder meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 8-9-01 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $32. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-17-05 at 3:30 ET. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnmd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Excellent volume Tuesday as CNMD tried to make the breakout move from its 16 week base. It was unable to hold the move into the close, but looks very good. Excellent 6 to 2 accumulation in the pattern shows a lot of buying during the consolidation. Relative strength has made the breakout already, a bullish sign for the stock to follow.
Volume: 564.7K Avg Volume: 212K
BUY POINT: $30.55 Volume=300K Target=$34.75 Stop=$29.44
POSITION: KQD HF - Aug. $30c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cnmd.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Buy not yet hit:
Play Date: 03/25/2005
MON (Monsanto--$60.94; +0.84; optionable): Specialty chemicals. Forecast to announce a split 4-6-05.
BACKGROUND: Somewhat of a wildcard as it has no splits in its history.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mon.html
STATUS: Breakout test. MON came out early and pre-announced it will announce strong results. That indicates that it will have something else to announce when earnings are released. Volume surged as MON gapped higher and ran to 63.93 on the high. Given the market we decided to hold off, and sure enough, MON gave back a lot of its $3+ gain. Still like the pattern very much, and this breakout and test all in one has prepared the path. WE just wait for it to rebound from here on solid trade. To recap: MON jumped out of its 9 week ascending base in early March with a strong volume surge. As the market sold back, it has done the same, but very light, below average volume shows few sellers as the stock holds at the 18 day EMA (57.48). Strong 4 to 1 accumulation in the pattern set up the move, and this is one nice pullback. Chemicals are a strong leadership group right now.
Volume: 1.12M Avg Volume: 2.25M
BUY POINT: $61.25 Volume=2.5M Target=$73 Stop=$59.65
POSITION: MON GL - July $60c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mon.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/22/2005
CHE (Chemed--$75.80; -0.45; optionable): Consumer services. Splits 2:1 on 5-12-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/che.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Good move Monday on rising but just average volume was tested Tuesday as CHE tapped the 18 day EMA (75.15) on the low and rebounded slightly to cut its losses. Volume was stronger, but with the rebound not that egregious. Relative strength has broken out ahead of the stock, and we are looking for another solid volume move to enter.
Volume: 102.2K Avg Volume: 76.681K
BUY POINT: New: $76.32 Volume=114K Target=$82 Stop=$74.65
POSITION: CHE FO - June $75c (56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/che.html
Play Date: 03/23/2005
PIXR (Pixar--$92.92; -0.84; optionable): Computer animated movies.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pixr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Continues to hold up well even as the market sells, holding near support at the 10 day EMA (92.39). Volume moved up to average and the stock was moving to the breakout early, but it could not hold the move. Still looks very good in its 16 week base that formed using the 50 day EMA (89.90) as support. Good strength in a weak market. Just being patient and letting it show us the break higher on solid volume that holds the move.
Volume: 537.9K Avg Volume: 526.09K
BUY POINT: $94.05 Volume=770K Target=$104 Stop=$91.22
POSITION: PQJ GS - July $95c (45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pixr.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/12/2005
CHD (Church & Dwight--$35.13; -0.38; optionable): Cleaning products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chd.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Fell back to the 50 day EMA (34.81) Tuesday, but volume was extremely low once more, indicating few sellers. It continues its test of the strong February surge, and it is showing excellent relative strength in a weak market. Another stock that just requires us to be patient, let it finish its pullback, and then move in when it spikes higher. To recap: A strong move higher from late January to early February took CHD higher from its last test of the 50 day. CHD split in early September during the formation of its base. Now it is setting up to continue the breakout run. Money flow is strong and volume has spiked higher the past two weeks when CHD made jumps off the 50 day EMA in the face of the market selling.
Volume: 141.1K Avg Volume: 267.363K
BUY POINT: $36.05 Volume=393K Target=$42.45 Stop=$34.96
POSITION: CHD GG - July $35c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chd.html
Play Date: 03/28/2005
URBN (Urban Outfitters--$46.29; -1.21; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urbn.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Could not continue the move as the market sold and URBN gave back a chunk of the Monday move. Still very solid as the pullback was on lower trade. Want to see it hold in this area once more and then show us the high volume move back up. To recap: This one will turn into another pre-announcement play, but as it split last July it may be a bit early. Never mind that, however, as the pattern is great. Broke out from a 16 week cup with handle base of sorts and rallied as the market sold. The past two weeks it took a lower volume breather, coming back toward the 50 day EMA (44.76) but holding easily above that level. Monday it started to rebound on rising though still below average volume. Looking to move in on a further volume move higher. Solid leader that is starting the next move.
Volume: 893K Avg Volume: 1.137M
BUY POINT: $47.87 Volume=1.2M Target=$53.95 Stop=$45.55
POSITION: URQ FI - June $45c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/urbn.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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