stock ticker, stock recommendation

Begin part 3 of 3

THE PLAYS

Monday night play results:
ENWV: Moved higher but no volume.
SCHL: Still a very nice low volume test of the breakout, holding the 18 day EMA.
JNPR: Held steady after gapping higher but failed at the 18 day EMA and volume started higher as it rolled back over. Looks ready.

New Plays:

Downside:

Play Date: 03/29/2005
AN (Autonation--$18.82; -0.20; optionable): Auto dealerships
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/an.html
STATUS: Put. Double topped in February and March at 20 then crashed through the 50 day EMA (19.14) last week. A low volume rebound has carried back up to test that level, doing so Monday on the intraday high. Tuesday it rolled over on stronger, above average volume. Failed test, the old kiss goodbye and ready to follow the money flow lower. A move to the target nets us a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 1.752M Avg Volume: 1.165M
BUY POINT: $18.75 Volume=1.1M Target=$17.73 Stop=$19.15
POSITION: AN QD - May $20p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/an.html

Play Date: 03/29/2005
ESV (Ensco Intl.--$36.03; -0.87; optionable): Oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esv.html
STATUS: Put. Familiar pattern in the energy stocks, a double top in late February and early March then fading to the 50 day EMA 36.76) on mostly above average volume. It has struggled to hold that level the past four sessions, just as the major indices did before they broke lower. Tried to rally Tuesday, moving up to the 18 day EMA (37.67) on the intraday high and then rolling over on rising, above average volume. Money flow is leading lower ahead of price, and we are looking for ESV to follow it on down. A move to the target gets us a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 2.409M Avg Volume: 2.275M
BUY POINT: $35.88 Volume=2.3M Target=$33.84 Stop=$36.44
POSITION: ESV QG - May $35p (-36 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/esv.html

Upside:

Play Date: 03/29/2005
SMRT (Stein Mart--$21.36; +0.36; no options): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smrt.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA (20.46). SMRT broke out in early February, moving out of a 22 week ascending base and rallying to 22. It has spent the past 7 weeks moving laterally between 20 and 22 as the 50 day EMA rose to meet it. Volume has spiked on several occasions the past two weeks as SMRT tightened up its range. Accumulation in the lateral consolidation is an excellent 4 to 1 (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume) shows a lot of buyers still. Looks ready for the breakout move as volume was up again Tuesday as it moved off the 50 day.
Volume: 345K Avg Volume: 270K
BUY POINT: $21.78 Volume=405K Target=$25 Stop=$21.05
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/smrt.html

SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.

BR, COH, EASI, GTRC, HDWR, MSTR, STN, TSRA, UPL

GTRC: Has rallied back from the butt kicking it got two weeks back. Tapped the 18 day EMA on the Tuesday high but then rolled back down on rising, above average volume. Could be its last bounce higher here before testing lower.

UPL: Fighting to hold the 200 day SMA, showing a doji as volume moved even higher above average.

SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST

We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.

Downside:

VECO: Turning down after a rebound to test the 10 and 18 day EMA. Looks ready to continue its downtrend that started back in January 2004. That is one long downtrend.

FHRX: Tapped resistance at the 18 day EMA and is turning back down once more in its strong downtrend that started with a lower high in December.

MTSN: Turning lower from the 10 day EMA on rising volume after its lower high in late February/early March.

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

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