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stock split, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good Movers: COHR; SIE; TLWT; ULTI
Best Plays:
1) HCR: Ready for a new high on strong volume and great accumulation
2) MATR: Sweet little pattern, great sector for this market.
3) BOL: The 50 day EMA test looks to have been a shakeout.
4) HNT: Volume getting it together.
5) SYXI: Now it is ready.
6) WIND: Volume is edging higher as it moves off the 50 day EMA.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/30/2005
EFD (Efunds--$22.36; +0.87; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/efd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume exploded higher Wednesday on no news as it bolted off the 50 day EMA (21.72) in its 16 week base. The pattern formed around the 50 day EMA, an important support level. Strong 5 to 2 accumulation in the base (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows solid buying. It is coming off the bottom of its base and still has to work on its pattern, but given the strong accumulation and money flow we are willing to take a partial position as it clears resistance and then add to that position on a breakout from the base.
Volume: 938.9K Avg Volume: 215.272K
BUY POINT: $23.65 Volume=323K Target=$27.75 Stop=$22.15
POSITION: EFD FX - June $22.50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/efd.html
Play Date: 03/30/2005
HCR (Manor Care--$36.10; +0.87; optionable): Long-term care facilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hcr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume has jumped the past two sessions, and HCR started the breakout move Wednesday, moving out of its 16 week base that is acting as the handle to a much larger 14 month cup with handle. Excellent 6 to 0 accumulation in the base (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume) shows solid buying as it set up for the breakout to take it toward a new all time high. Excellent money flow is leading higher and relative strength is making the breakout as well, a good corroboration of the breakout that is ready to happen.
Volume: 705.7K Avg Volume: 569.363K
BUY POINT: $36.24 Volume=750K Target=$41.45 Stop=$35.05
POSITION: HCR HG - Aug. $35c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hcr.html
Play Date: 03/30/2005
MATR (Matria Healthcare--$30.26; +0.69; optionable): Home health care
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/matr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A short but nice 8 week base has formed over key support at the 50 day EMA (28.43) as it sets up for a breakout to a new all-time high. Excellent 4 to 0 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume) shows all buying as it sets up for the move. Strong money flow is leading higher and relative strength is ready to make a breakout as well, a good corroboration of any breakout move. It formed this base right after it split, not atypical action. We like to look at post split plays after their first base following the split as that resets the clock so to speak and they make the next move higher.
Volume: 64.915K Avg Volume: 235.409K
BUY POINT: $30.64 Volume=353K Target=$36.85 Stop=$29.11
POSITION: PQT FF - June $30c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/matr.html
New Downside Plays:
Letting them set up better with a further market rebound.
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Not yet entered:
Play Date: 03/23/2005
BOL (Bausch & Lomb--$74.70; +2.26; optionable): Contact lens supplies, etc. Forecast to announce a 2:1 split in late April
BACKGROUND: It has been a long time since BOL split (1991).
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bol.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. After a quick test of the 50 day EMA (71.58) Tuesday, BOL rebounded Wednesday with a strong gain on lower though still average volume. Good recovery and ready to make the breakout move. To recap: Nice 7 week base is forming over the 50 day EMA. This base followed an 18 week cup with handle breakout. When a triangle follows a breakout it typically leads to even stronger upside gains. Positive 3 to 2 accumulation in the base (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buyers in the current pattern, setting up the next move. Strong money flow is leading higher ahead of price and relative strength is making the breakout ahead of the stock. Super.
Volume: 522K Avg Volume: 474.59K
BUY POINT: $75.05 Volume=700K Target=$82 Stop=$73.22
POSITION: BOL GO - July $75c (51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bol.html
Play Date: 03/28/2005
CNTY (Century Casinos--$9.16; +0.09; no options): Resorts and casinos
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnty.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still holding tight in the handle of its base, right at the breakout point. Volume has backed off after the strong Monday move, but it is holding its gain. To recap: Still holding the 18 day EMA (8.83), at the high in its 4 week handle of the 17 week base. It formed using the 50 day EMA (8.49) as support, a key level. Strong money flow is leading higher, a good combination with the solid 4 to 2 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume). Relative strength is making the breakout ahead of the stock, a very solid indication that the stock is going to make the breakout as well. Looking to move in on a continued volume move higher.
Volume: 81.602K Avg Volume: 101.545K
BUY POINT: $9.41 Volume=156K Target=$11.29 Stop=$8.75
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cnty.html
Play Date: 03/21/2005
HNT (Healthnet--$32.28; +0.54; optionable): Health care plans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hnt.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Getting the momentum going now with a solid price move off the 18 day EMA (31.56) Wednesday. Volume was not there yet, but it has moved close to average the past two sessions; another good volume session as it continues higher will be sufficient. Looks ready to follow that money flow that has turned higher once more. To recap: HNT blasted higher to start the month on a Bear Stearns upgrade. That news gapped it out of an 11 week flat base that was part of a larger 13 month cup with handle. Accumulation in the recent smaller base was a solid 3:1 and 15:10 in the larger base. That shows solid buying as the stock consolidated. It has spent the last three weeks of market selling testing back on lower, below average volume, and now volume is starting to pick up as it holds key support. It has come back to fill part of the gap, holding the 18 day EMA, an important near term support point. Strong money flow has already turned higher ahead of the stock on this pullback, ready to lead higher.
Volume: 688.2K Avg Volume: 726.09K
BUY POINT: $32.45 Volume=1M Target=$36.95 Stop=$31.21
POSITION: HNT GZ - July $32.50c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hnt.html
Play Date: 03/25/2005
RMD (Resmed--$56.41; -0.29; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rmd.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Gapped down to the 50 day EMA (56.06) to start the session, but volume remained low and it managed to cuts its losses. It looks to have gone dormant here over the 50 day, but it is holding key support and money flow is still leading. Just being patient and waiting for the volume to kick in on the upside move. To recap: RMD exploded higher in early February as it announced huge earnings, gapping out of an 8 month base. It rallied to 61 and has sold back to the 50 day EMA during the market selling. It bounced off that level two weeks back but could not hold the move, coming back late last week for another test. This short double bottom test of the 50 day coupled with strong money flow looks ready to send RMD back up in a continuation of the breakout. Strong 9 to 6 accumulation in the base showed net buyers and set up the move.
Volume: 134.9K Avg Volume: 232.363K
BUY POINT: $57.21 Volume=300K Target=$64.35 Stop=$55.75
POSITION: RMD GK - July $55c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rmd.html
Play Date: 03/14/2005
SYXI (Ixys Corp.--$11.22; +0.38; optionable): Semiconductor memory chips
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syxi.html
After Hours: $11.23
STATUS: Breakout test. SYXI looks to have it in gear, moving off the 18 day EMA (10.88) Wednesday after a quick test to that level Tuesday. A good hold at near support after the breakout from its 12 week flat base. Money flow remains strong and relative strength is making the breakout move. Looks ready but want to see more volume as it continues the move.
Volume: 174.491K Avg Volume: 168.772K
BUY POINT: New: 11.32 (orig. $11.05) Volume=378K Target=$13.25 Stop=$10.49
POSITION: USX GB - July $10c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/syxi.html
Play Date: 03/17/2005
TDY (Teledyne Technologies--$31.99; +1.24; optionable): Technical services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tdy.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA (30.80). After a week of falling back to the 50 day EMA for a test of the breakout, TDY may have finally found its legs. Gapped below that level Wednesday and then reversed for a solid gain. Volume was not solid, however, remaining below average as it has done for the past week. Good on a test, not what you want when it starts its move upside. Strong money flow and relative strength ready to breakout as well. Need to see that surge in volume as it continues and moves through the buy point. Looking for the stock to clear recent resistance.
Volume: 119.1K Avg Volume: 200.909K
BUY POINT: New: $32.38 (orig. $31.65) Volume=290K Target=$38 Stop=$30.61
POSITION: TDY GF - July $30c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tdy.html
Play Date: 03/12/2005
WIND (Wind River Systems--$15.03; +0.5; optionable): Business software.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wind.html
After Hours: $14.95
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. As with many stocks, WIND took a dip to the 50 day EMA (14.19) Tuesday. It was a quick dip, however, and it regain the move and more Wednesday. Volume was still below average, but it was better as WIND recovered. Money flow is strong and we are looking for WIND to go ahead and blow through the buy point Thursday or Friday. To recap: WIND blasted higher to start the month, moving out of a 3.5 month reverse head and shoulders base 3.5 month reverse head and shoulders base sporting strong accumulation. Money flow has paid no attention to the selling, continuing to move higher.
Volume: 750.008K Avg Volume: 791.863K
BUY POINT: $15.32 Volume=900K Target=$18 Stop=$14.55
POSITION: QWV HC - Aug. $15c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wind.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock split
stock recommendation
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