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stock recommendation, stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: CBI; CRZO; ENER; PIXR; WGII; AN; AV; MHP
Thursday night play results:
CBI: Nice continued bounce off 50 day MA.
IMDC: Nice volume surge as it started the move off the 10 day EMA.
NGPS: Strong volume but gave back much of the move.
WGII: Nice volume move off the 10 day EMA.
JILL: No volume on the drop.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/02/2005
BCR (C.R. Bard--$68.14; +0.06; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcr.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. BCR broke out of a 6.5 month base in mid-December, rallying up the 18 day EMA (67.36) up to 71. It has spent the past 8 weeks pulling back to test the move and moving back down to the 50 day EMA (66.61). It bounced sharply off that level 5 sessions back on above average volume and has since made a nice, orderly test of the 18 day. Nice pullback with money flow still moving higher ahead of the price even as the stop eases back. Big volume spike Wednesday as BCR held steady indicates a lot of buying activity. A strong leader with 3 to 1 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows more buyers than sellers in this nice consolidation. Looking for volume to jump again as it makes the move out of this nice pullback.
Volume: 639.1K Avg Volume: 588.04K
BUY POINT: $68.88 Volume=882K Target=$76 Stop=$67.12
POSITION: BCR GM - July $65c (76 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bcr.html
Play Date: 04/02/2005
DRS (DRS Technologies--$43.7; +1.2; optionable): Aerospace/defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drs.html
STATUS: Flat base. Volume surged well above average Friday as DRS bolted off the 50 day EMA (41.77). It is moving toward the highs of the past 8 weeks and a breakout from its 14 week pattern. Excellent 6 to 1 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows nearly all buyers and is setting the foundation for the breakout move. A breakout takes it near an all-time high. This recent base is the tail end of a much larger 3 year cup with handle. In any event, money flow is strong and relative strength is making the breakout ahead of the stock price, a very bullish signal. Looking to move in on a continued rally that takes it past the February closing high (44.14).
Volume: 671.2K Avg Volume: 300.14K
BUY POINT: $44.22 Volume=400K Target=$49.75 Stop=$43.25
POSITION: DRS II - Sept. $45c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/drs.html
Play Date: 04/03/2005
PUMP (Animas--$20.10; -0.11; no options): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pump.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. PUMP has set up for the next entry point after giving us a nice little gain following a super breakout in February. The stock was a new issue in May 2004, has set up and broken out of its first base, and is making the first test of that breakout. The first test is one of our favorite entry points, and this one held a key level at the 50 day EMA (19.64). Strong money flow is moving higher ahead of price and we are looking for PUMP to follow it. Need to see some more volume as it bounces off the 50 day and moves through the buy point.
Volume: 127.16K Avg Volume: 207.629K
BUY POINT: $21.22 Volume=311K Target=$24.75 Stop=$20.38
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pump.html
Downside:
Play Date: 04/02/2005
AH (Armor Holdings--$36.02; -1.07; optionable): Body armor, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ah.html
STATUS: Put. This stock was all the rage in 2004 with the Iraq issues, but now that the crisis is over or at least is perceived to be over, the stock has peaked and is trending lower this year. It gapped sharply lower in February on projections for 2005, cutting through the 200 day SMA (39.88). It rebounded and recovered that level, but rolled over in mid-March, plunging back through tat level the past week. It tried to hold at 36 the past four sessions, right at the late October low. Friday volume jumped as it started to crack through that level. Looking to move in on a continued drop and pick up a nice 45%ish gain on a move to the target.
Volume: 989.2K Avg Volume: 794.574K
BUY POINT: $35.95 Volume=850K Target=$33.89 Stop=$36.45
POSITION: AH QG - May $35p (-35 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ah.html
Play Date: 04/03/2005
EMR (Emerson Electric--$63.96; -0.97; optionable): Industrial, commercial and consumer electrical and electronic equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/emr.html
STATUS: Put. EMR broke out of a 10 month cup with handle base in late October and rallied to 70. It peaked there in December and rolled over, making a series of lower and lower highs this year. Last week it broke through the bottom of the 2005 base, falling through the 200 day SMA (64.83) on strong volume. A lower volume rebound Wednesday and Thursday tried to make a recovery, but Friday it rolled over on a big volume surge, closing back below that key 200 day. Diving money flow is leading lower. Looking to move in on a further decline. A move to the targets garners a nice 46%ish gain.
Volume: 2.023M Avg Volume: 1.307M
BUY POINT: $63.82 Volume=1.5M Target=$61.78 Stop=$64.48
POSITION: EMR QM - May $65p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/emr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock pick
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