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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: CBI; PIXR; VLO; VMSI; AN; MHP
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 04/02/2005
BCR (C.R. Bard--$68.14; +0.06; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcr.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. One of the stocks that is not showing any wear and tear in a selling market. BCR broke out of a 6.5 month base in mid-December, rallying up the 18 day EMA (67.36) up to 71. It has spent the past 8 weeks pulling back to test the move and moving back down to the 50 day EMA (66.61). It bounced sharply off that level 5 sessions back on above average volume and has since made a nice, orderly test of the 18 day. Nice pullback with money flow still moving higher ahead of the price even as the stop eases back. Big volume spike Wednesday as BCR held steady indicates a lot of buying activity. A strong leader with 3 to 1 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows more buyers than sellers in this nice consolidation. Looking for volume to jump again as it makes the move out of this nice pullback.
Volume: 639.1K Avg Volume: 588.04K
BUY POINT: $68.88 Volume=882K Target=$76 Stop=$67.12
POSITION: BCR GM - July $65c (76 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcr.html
Play Date: 04/02/2005
ANSS (Ansys--$35.29; +1.08; optionable): Technical and system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anss.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. ANSS broke out in mid-February, moving out of a 10 week base and hitting 38 on the move. The past six weeks it has made an orderly test of the move as the market sold, holding the key 50 day EMA (34.13). Friday the stock rebounded off the 50 day on a good shot of rising, above average volume. Solid money flow and relative strength strong as well as ANSS is a market leader that showed its strength by using the recent market selling as a rest period. Excellent action and ready to break higher to a new all-time high.
Volume: 279.933K Avg Volume: 249.25K
BUY POINT: $36.11 Volume=374K Target=$42 Stop=$34.72
POSITION: QUS GG - July $35c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anss.html
Downside:
Play Date: 04/02/2005
AH (Armor Holdings--$36.02; -1.07; optionable): Body armor, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ah.html
STATUS: Put. This stock was all the rage in 2004 with the Iraq issues, but now that the crisis is over or at least is perceived to be over, the stock has peaked and is trending lower this year. It gapped sharply lower in February on projections for 2005, cutting through the 200 day SMA (39.88). It rebounded and recovered that level, but rolled over in mid-March, plunging back through tat level the past week. It tried to hold at 36 the past four sessions, right at the late October low. Friday volume jumped as it started to crack through that level. Looking to move in on a continued drop and pick up a nice 45%ish gain on a move to the target.
Volume: 989.2K Avg Volume: 794.574K
BUY POINT: $35.95 Volume=850K Target=$33.89 Stop=$36.45
POSITION: AH QG - May $35p (-35 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ah.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all positions but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
AHC: Forecast 4-26-05
APPX: Forecast 4-20-05
ARO: No split announcement 3-10-05. Needs to hold up here at the 50 day EMA as it tried to set up for the breakout move.
BOL: Forecast 4-19-05 before the open.
CNMD: Forecast 5-17-05
CTSH: Forecast 4-11-05 or 4-19-05.
CVH: Tentatively forecast 5-3-05 before the open.
ESRX: Forecast 4-26-05.
GPN: No split announced 3-21-05. Still waiting for a pullback to test the break higher and give us an entry point.
GVA: Forecast 4-27-05
IEX: Forecast to announce on or about 4-21-05
IHP: Forecast 4-8-05 in conjunction with a board meeting. Now at the 50 day EMA. Needs a volume bounce off of this level.
IMDC: Forecast in early May. Researching to pinpoint the date.
IR: Forecast 4-6-05 with a board meeting or 4-9-05 with earnings. Unable to recover the 50 day EMA yet, something we want to see before we move into positions.
MON: Forecast 4-6-05
OMC: Forecast 4-26.05 in conjunction with earnings or 5-24-05 with a board meeting.
ORLY: Forecast 4-26-05. Still looking for volume off of this test.
PD: Forecast in late April. Still jumping all over the map, but a good jump to end the week, gapping back above the 50 day EMA.
PII: Forecast 4-14-05.
PSUN: Forecast early May.
SIE: Forecast 4-25-05
STR: Early May. Breaking higher off the 18 day EMA. Looking solid.
UNH: Forecast 4-14-05 before the open or 5-12-05 with a board meeting.
VLO: Forecast 4-27-05.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 04/02/2005
GYI (Getty Images--$72.99; +1.88; optionable): Visual content products. Forecast 4-20-05.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gyi.html
BACKGROUND: No splits in Getty's history, but at a favored split level after the 2000 crash.
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Volume surged Friday as GYI jumped off the 50 day EMA (70.20) on an upgrade. This is the second test of the 50 day following a December breakout from a sweet little 4.5 month cup with handle base. Love picking up stocks off of early breakout tests, and the fact that GYI is holding the key 50 day EMA level and continuing its breakout run when the rest of the market is selling is a testament to its leadership. Excellent money flow is leading higher and relative strength made the breakout Friday ahead of the price, a very bullish indication. Looking to start a position on a continued move higher on this move.
Volume: 511.2K Avg Volume: 401.213K
BUY POINT: $73.25 Volume=602K Target=$83 Stop=$71.32
POSITION: GYI GN - July $70c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gyi.html
Play Date: 04/02/2005
STZ (Constellation Brands--$53.18; +0.31; optionable): Wineries and distilleries. Forecast to announce a split 4-7-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 4-10-02 at $55. Before that it announced a 2:1 split 4-12-01 at $68.50. Finally back in range at the right time.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stz.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Broke out in November from a 15 week base and rallied sharply up to mid-February. It needed a deeper test after that strong move, and the past 6 weeks it has come back to test the 50 day EMA (51.68), holding price support at 50 from a January lateral consolidation. Volume jumped Friday as STZ moved above the 50 day SMA (52.71). It showed a doji, however, and may want to test back some or rest a bit before continuing higher. A good rest for the stock ahead of earnings. Looking to move in if it continues from here on strong trade and then again on a test, but may not get the second entry before the forecast date.
Volume: 757.8K Avg Volume: 601.288K
BUY POINT: $53.78 Volume=850K Target=$61 Stop=$52.19
POSITION: STZ GJ - July $50c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/stz.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Buy not yet hit:
Play Date: 03/29/2005
APPX (American Pharmaceutical--$52.23; +0.49; optionable): Drugs. Forecast to announce a split on in May and working to pinpoint a date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 3-4-02 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $52. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/appx.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still moving laterally on very low, below average volume, holding over the 10 day EMA (51.41). It is setting up for the next move, but have to be patient here and let it show the volume break higher. To recap: APPX is moving laterally over the 18 day EMA in a 10 week lateral test of its huge gap higher in January on the approval of its breast cancer drug. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the lateral move shows buyers still using the consolidation as an opportunity to move into the stock. Strong money flow is leading higher and relative strength is ready to breakout; a solid stock in a weak market. Volume has been predominantly well below average volume on this move, showing very little selling after the big move. Volume jumped last week as the stock jumped off the 18 day EMA.
Volume: 304.558K Avg Volume: 775.804K
BUY POINT: $53.35 Volume=975K Target=$61.45 Stop=$49.78
POSITION: AQO GK - July $55c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/appx.html
Play Date: 03/31/2005
PII (Polaris--$70.72; +0.49; optionable): ATV's, personal watercraft. Forecast to announce a split 4-14-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 1-22-04 at $86.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pii.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Volume spiked Thursday as PII showed a nice doji at the 50 day EMA (70.05). Friday volume backed off as the stock edged up off the 50 day. A good, orderly test of the move higher, and looking for volume to return as it moves up off this important support level. To recap: A short double bottom in January set up a breakout and run from 65 to 75, and this pullback the past three weeks is testing that move. Money flow remains strong, and we are looking for continued strong volume as it moves up through the 18 day EMA. That is our initial entry point.
Volume: 269.1K Avg Volume: 335.902K
BUY POINT: $71.55 Volume=481K Target=$79.65 Stop=$69.89
POSITION: PII FN - June $70c (56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pii.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/12/2005
CHD (Church & Dwight--$35.59; +0.12; optionable): Cleaning products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chd.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Still working laterally over the 50 day EMA (34.88), but volume jumped Friday close to average as CHD posted a modest gain. It has been biding its time, holding up well as the market sold, and it looks very close to making its move. To recap: A strong move higher from late January to early February took CHD higher from its last test of the 50 day. CHD split in early September during the formation of its base. Now it is setting up to continue the breakout run. Money flow is strong and volume has spiked higher the past two weeks when CHD made jumps off the 50 day EMA in the face of the market selling.
Volume: 234.7K Avg Volume: 273.932K
BUY POINT: $36.05 Volume=393K Target=$42.45 Stop=$34.96
POSITION: CHD GG - July $35c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chd.html
Play Date: 03/30/2005
MATR (Matria Healthcare--$30.78; +0.07; optionable): Home health care
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/matr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume backed off Friday to microscopic levels, as the stock posted a very modest gain. Still in a nice pattern but is moving higher the past two sessions without any volume. Want to see the volume kick in this week. To recap: A short but nice 8 week base has formed over key support at the 50 day EMA (28.61) as it sets up for a breakout to a new all-time high. Excellent 4 to 0 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume) shows all buying as it sets up for the move. Strong money flow is leading higher and relative strength is ready to make a breakout as well, a good corroboration of any breakout move. It formed this base right after it split, not atypical action. We like to look at post split plays after their first base following the split as that resets the clock so to speak and they make the next move higher.
Volume: 62.608K Avg Volume: 192.022K
BUY POINT: $30.89 Volume=353K Target=$36.85 Stop=$29.11
POSITION: PQT FF - June $30c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/matr.html
Play Date: 03/28/2005
URBN (Urban Outfitters--$47; -0.97; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urbn.html
After Hours: $47
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Retail came under some pressure Friday, but URBN weathered the selling fairly well. It gave up ground, but it did so on significantly lower, below average volume as it works laterally to consolidate a solid early March move. Managed to rebound Friday to hold the 18 day EMA (46.75) on the close. Want it to hold in this 46 range and then give us the strong volume move through the buy point. To recap: It just split last July so we may be a bit early. Broke out from a 16 week cup with handle base of sorts and rallied as the market sold. The past two weeks it took a lower volume breather, coming back toward the 50 day EMA (45.08) but holding easily above that level. Just needs more volume as it is jumping off the 50 day. Solid leader that is starting the next move.
Volume: 922.66K Avg Volume: 1.181M
BUY POINT: $47.87 Volume=1.2M Target=$53.95 Stop=$45.55
POSITION: URQ FI - June $45c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/urbn.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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