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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ABRX; ENER; NGPS; EMR; FAST; LF
Weekend play results:
BCR: Moving higher off 10 day EMA but needs some more volume.
DRS: Gapped higher but closed off high as volume was not quite there.
PUMP: Testing the 50 day EMA still.
AH: Still ready to fall.
EMR: Started down further.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/04/2005
GR (Goodrich--$39.15; +0.78; optionable): Aerospace/defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gr.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Not just tires but also helicopters and other high tech gear. GR started a strong volume breakout from a 5 week triangle Monday. It closed off the high, but still looks solid as it is leading in a weak market. It broke out from a 7 month trading range in early February and rallied to 40. It then moved into the current base. Solid 7 to 4 accumulation in the prior base (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume), and the current pattern sports 2 to 0 accumulation. Looking to move in on a further volume move higher. Strong money flow is moving higher head of the price.
Volume: 1.771M Avg Volume: 987.318K
BUY POINT: $39.25 Volume=1.5M Target=$45.45 Stop=$38.05
POSITION: GR HH - Aug. $40c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gr.html
Play Date: 04/04/2005
TBL (Timberland--$71.35; +1.07; optionable): Apparel, footwear. Splits 2:1 on 5-3-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tbl.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. TBL broke higher in mid February, surging over 72 on the move. It hs spent the past 7 weeks moving in a range from 70 to 74. It came off the 50 day EMA (69.68) Monday, and though volume was not there, we are looking to move into positions if it shows us some better trade as it moves through the buy point. This is a pre-split so we are not trying to catch a massive move, just a good run in the split.
Volume: 180.7K Avg Volume: 310.909K
BUY POINT: $71.66 Volume=350K Target=$75 Stop=$69.89
POSITION: TBL HN - Aug. $70c (64 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tbl.html
Downside:
Play Date: 04/04/2005
ATYT (ATI Technologies--$16.91; -0.41; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atyt.html
After Hours: $16.88
STATUS: Put. ATYT is falling back from the 200 day SMA (17.24) after testing the break below the 200 day in mid-March. Money flow has been tanking ahead of ATYT and we are looking for the stock to follow it back toward the recent lows. Want to see the volume kick back up to show it is committed to move lower after this 200 day breakdown. A move to the target nets us a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 2.374M Avg Volume: 3.112M
BUY POINT: $16.84 Volume=3.6M Target=$15.82 Stop=$17.12
POSITION: QFY QW - May $17.50p (-61 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/atyt.html
Play Date: 04/04/2005
LRCX (Lam Research--$28.03; -0.43; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lrcx.html
After Hours: $28.12
STATUS: Put. LRCX is working on the right shoulder of a 16 week head and shoulders base. It stalled out on the right shoulder at the 50 day EMA (28.48), a natural resistance level, and fell on much stronger, above average volume Monday. It managed to rebound from the low (27.57) and recoup some losses, so we want to see a generally weak sector as it heads lower once more. A move to the target lands us a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 4.274M Avg Volume: 2.977M
BUY POINT: $27.88 Volume=3M Target=$25.85 Stop=$28.55
POSITION: LMQ QC - May $30p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/lrcx.html
Play Date: 04/04/2005
SSI (Spectrasite--$57.99; -0.55; optionable): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssi.html
STATUS: Put. After a long run higher SSI peaked in early March and fell through the 50 day EMA (59.46) as volume ramped higher. Volume stayed high as the stock fell and then dropped as it rebounded back up to test resistance. It tapped resistance at 60 on the Friday high and faded back. It started to roll over Monday but volume was low. Money flow is heading lower and it has been under distribution the past month. Want to see volume increase as it starts lower.
Volume: 538.3K Avg Volume: 476.636K
BUY POINT: $57.85 Volume=720K Target=$55.61 Stop=$58.72
POSITION: SSI QL - May $60p (-71 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ssi.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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