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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ABRX; ENER; NGPS; EMR
Weekend play results:
PUMP: Still testing the 50 day EMA, showing a tight doji on rising volume.
DJO: Nice doji at the 18 day EMA as it continues the test.
EMR: Continued the move lower.
JNPR: Sold hard but then rebounded. Want it to stall at this resistance at 22.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/04/2005
GR (Goodrich--$39.15; +0.78; optionable): Aerospace/defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gr.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Not just tires but also helicopters and other high tech gear. GR started a strong volume breakout from a 5 week triangle Monday. It closed off the high, but still looks solid as it is leading in a weak market. It broke out from a 7 month trading range in early February and rallied to 40. It then moved into the current base. Solid 7 to 4 accumulation in the prior base (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume), and the current pattern sports 2 to 0 accumulation. Looking to move in on a further volume move higher. Strong money flow is moving higher head of the price.
Volume: 1.771M Avg Volume: 987.318K
BUY POINT: $39.25 Volume=1.5M Target=$45.45 Stop=$38.05
POSITION: GR HH - Aug. $40c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/gr.html
Downside:
Play Date: 04/04/2005
ATYT (ATI Technologies--$16.91; -0.41; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atyt.html
After Hours: $16.88
STATUS: Put. ATYT is falling back from the 200 day SMA (17.24) after testing the break below the 200 day in mid-March. Money flow has been tanking ahead of ATYT and we are looking for the stock to follow it back toward the recent lows. Want to see the volume kick back up to show it is committed to move lower after this 200 day breakdown. A move to the target nets us a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 2.374M Avg Volume: 3.112M
BUY POINT: $16.84 Volume=3.6M Target=$15.82 Stop=$17.12
POSITION: QFY QW - May $17.50p (-61 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/atyt.html
Play Date: 04/04/2005
EP (El Paso--$10.55; -0.10; optionable): Oil and gas pipelines
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ep.html
STATUS: Put. After a surge in mid-February on very strong volume EP peaked and rolled over. It gapped through the 50 day EMA (11.08) two weeks back, and a short test failed; volume accelerated as it moved down after that kiss of the resistance point. It has made a low volume bounce the past week, but has stalled at the 10 day EMA (10.64). Money flow is leading the stock lower and the stock remains under heavy distribution. Looking to move into positions as the stock continues the move back down and follows the money flow lower.
Volume: 3.892M Avg Volume: 5.148M
BUY POINT: $10.49 Volume=5.7M Target=$9.49 Stop=$10.77
POSITION: EP QN - May $12p (-68 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ep.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
BR, COH, EASI, GTRC, HDWR, MSTR, STN, TSRA, UPL
Still looking for a few good stocks to replace GTRC, MSTR, EASI, and possibly UPL.
GTRC: Still in that low volume test of the 50 day EMA breach. A downside play as volume rises on the turn back down.
STN: Still testing, but slipped through the 18 day EMA. May be a final shakeout as volume remains low.
UPL: Big recovery from the dump to the 200 day SMA. Still a jumbled pattern at this point.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Downside:
TECD: Gapped lower in early March and is now moving down the 10 day EMA. This is the second rebound to test that near resistance, a good place for a stock to continue lower.
Upside:
CULS: Blasted higher two weeks back out of a very tight lateral consolidation at the 18 day EMA. It ahs come back on lower volume, tapping at the 18 day EMA on the Monday low and then cutting its losses. May taken another session or two but getting ready to continue the move.
HIBB: Nice test of the early March break higher. Holding the 18 day EMA Monday, showing a nice doji.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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