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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: AAPX; CNMD; CTSH; ESRX; PIXR; SIE; UNH; URBN
New Post-Split Plays:
New buy point on a continuing play.
Play Date: 04/05/2005
INFY (Infosys Technologies--$73.90; +0.33; optionable): Technical & system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/infy.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. INFY has spent the past 5 weeks easing back to test this key support level on low, below average volume. While the market sold off, INFY used the selling to test the breakout from the breakout from a 10 week base. Excellent money flow is still moving higher ahead of the stock, and after this pullback INFY will be ready to move again. A leader that is setting up for the next run higher.
Volume: 204.33K Avg Volume: 443.272K
BUY POINT: $75.12 Volume=665K Target=$85 Stop=$74.05
POSITION: IUN GO - July $75c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/infy.html
Continuing downside play:
Play Date: 04/04/2005
SSI (Spectrasite--$58.52; +0.53; optionable): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssi.html
STATUS: Put. SSI made one more last gasp attempt to recover from the nasty drop to end March, but volume was very low on the move, and it stalled out when it tried to move back through that level (58.49). Ready to roll over. To recap: After a long run higher SSI peaked in early March and fell through the 50 day EMA (59.42) as volume ramped higher. Volume stayed high as the stock fell and then dropped as it rebounded back up to test resistance. It tapped resistance at 60 on the Friday high and faded back. It started to roll over Monday but volume was low. Money flow is heading lower and it has been under distribution the past month. Want to see volume increase as it starts lower.
Volume: 293.3K Avg Volume: 476.636K
BUY POINT: $57.85 Volume=720K Target=$55.61 Stop=$58.72
POSITION: SSI QL - May $60p (-71 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ssi.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all positions but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
AHC: Forecast 4-26-05
APPX: Forecast 4-20-05
BOL: Forecast 4-19-05 before the open.
CNMD: Forecast 5-17-05
CTSH: Forecast 4-11-05 or 4-19-05.
CVH: Tentatively forecast 5-3-05 before the open.
ESRX: Forecast 4-26-05.
GPN: No split announced 3-21-05. Holding the 10 day EMA after the big breakout move.
GVA: Forecast 4-27-05
GYI: Forecast 4-20-05
IEX: Forecast to announce on or about 4-21-05
IHP: Forecast 4-8-05 in conjunction with a board meeting. Coming off the 50 day EMA on good volume.
IMDC: Forecast in early May. Nice doji on high volume at the 50 day EMA.
IR: Forecast 4-6-05 with a board meeting or 4-9-05 with earnings. Still unable to move back through the 50 day EMA and give us a buy point.
MON: Forecast 4-6-05. Holding the 18 day EMA ahead of tomorrow morning's earnings.
OMC: Forecast 4-26.05 in conjunction with earnings or 5-24-05 with a board meeting.
ORLY: Forecast 4-26-05. Starting to pick up the volume as it moves off the 50 day EMA.
PD: Forecast in late April. Trying to settle down with a doji at the 50 day EMA.
PII: Forecast 4-14-05. Disappointing sell off through the 50 day EMA Monday.
PSUN: Forecast early May.
SIE: Forecast 4-25-05
STR: Early May. Now it just needs to show more volume as it moves through 60.
STZ: Forecast 4-7-05
UNH: Forecast 4-14-05 before the open or 5-12-05 with a board meeting.
VLO: Forecast 4-27-05.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 04/05/2005
DGX (Quest Diagnostics--$105.11; +1.03; optionable): Medical Laboratories. Forecast 4-21-04 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND. Announced a 2:1 split on 2-22-01 at a price of $101.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dgx.html
STATUS: Test breakout. DGX exploded higher last week on an upgrade and comments at a healthcare conference. That broke it out of a 6 week flat base that formed over the 18 day EMA (102), and now it is moving laterally, holding 104 on the lows as the 10 day EMA (103.18) rises to meet it. Money flow is outstanding and surging ahead of the stock. Relative strength is strong as well, ready to breakout once more. It may take a couple more sessions before it is finished this lateral consolidation, and when it blows higher again on strong volume we are ready to start a position in the stock.
Volume: 567.7K Avg Volume: 584.09K
BUY POINT: $105.65 Volume=875K Target=$115 Stop=$103.05
POSITION: DGX QA - May $105c (60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dgx.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
New buy points on current plays:
Play Date: 04/05/2005
CTSH (Cognizant Technology--$47.96; +1.50; optionable): Custom IT services for Fortune 1,000 companies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctsh.html
After Hours: $48
STATUS: Cup. CTSH was up off the 18 day EMA (45.97) Tuesday as volume moved back toward average. It is looking at the breakout of a short 6 week cup that formed during the March selling. CTSH in true leadership fashion, held up very well, using the selling to consolidate its early February breakout. It has reset and we are looking to pick up some more positions as it moves through the buy point on solid trade.
Volume: 1.595M Avg Volume: 1.86M
BUY POINT: $48.25 Volume=2.2M Target=$55 Stop=$45.84
POSITION: UPU GI - July $45c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ctsh.html
Play Date: 04/05/2005
ESRX (Express Scripts--$86.99; +1.39; optionable): Mail order prescription plans. Forecast 4-26-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split in February 2001 at $88.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
After Hours: $86.92
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. ESRX has formed a short, neat 5 week base that is working to consolidate the strong gap higher in early March on a very strong earnings report and outlook. This sideways base is working to set up the next buy point and Tuesday it was up off the 10 day EMA (85.51) on rising, above average volume. Money flow remains strong and is leading higher ahead of the stock. Looking for the price and volume to follow it higher and give us another good entry point.
Volume: 1.019M Avg Volume: 819.227K
BUY POINT: $87.81 Volume=1.2M Target=$94 Stop=$84.38
POSITION: XTQ HQ - Aug. $85c (62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/esrx.html
Buy not yet hit:
Play Date: 04/02/2005
STZ (Constellation Brands--$53.45; +0.44; optionable): Wineries and distilleries. Forecast to announce a split 4-7-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 4-10-02 at $55. Before that it announced a 2:1 split 4-12-01 at $68.50. Finally back in range at the right time.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stz.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Modest gain Tuesday as STZ continued to hold the move up off the 50 day EMA (51.80). It is setting up well for the move higher. Want to see more volume Wednesday, but will look at a few positions before the close if it holds the move, and then some more on a breakout move. To recap: Broke out in November from a 15 week base and rallied sharply up to mid-February. It needed a deeper test after that strong move, and the past 6 weeks it has come back to test the 50 day EMA, holding price support at 50 from a January lateral consolidation. Volume jumped Friday as STZ moved above the 50 day SMA. It showed a doji, however, and may want to test back some or rest a bit before continuing higher. A good rest for the stock ahead of earnings. Looking to move in if it continues from here on strong trade and then again on a test, but may not get the second entry before the forecast date.
Volume: 347.9K Avg Volume: 602.863K
BUY POINT: $53.78 Volume=850K Target=$61 Stop=$52.19
POSITION: STZ GJ - July $50c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/stz.html
Play Date: 03/25/2005
AHC (Amerada Hess--$98.15; -0.06; optionable): Oil and gas refining and marketing. Oil and gas refining. Forecast to announce a split 4-26-05
BACKGROUND: No split in its past, but it is near that 100 level and the refiners are in great shape.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ahc.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. AHC jumped off the 50 day EMA (94.29) last week but volume did not follow. Monday volume did finally show up but the stock gave back the move and closed flat. Tuesday it held the move higher on continued strong volume, showing a nice tight doji. Seems Greenspan's comments about refining capacity being 'worrisome' did not hurt the refiners as much as some of the other energy stocks. Looking for a continued volume move higher. Moved up the buy point to clear the recent resistance.
Volume: 2.532M Avg Volume: 1.393M
BUY POINT: $98.75 Volume=2M Target=$112 Stop=$96.25
POSITION: AHC HS - Aug. $95c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ahc.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/02/2005
ANSS (Ansys--$35.81; -0.2; optionable): Technical and system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anss.html
After Hours: $35.53
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. After the prior two sessions ANSS took a day off Tuesday, fading on low, below average volume. Still holding up well and looking for it to turn back up Wednesday or Thursday on volume and deliver the buy point. To recap: ANSS broke out in mid-February, moving out of a 10 week base and hitting 38 on the move. The past six weeks it has made an orderly test of the move as the market sold, holding the key 50 day EMA (34.27). Friday the stock rebounded off the 50 day on a good shot of rising, above average volume. Solid money flow and relative strength strong as well as ANSS is a market leader that showed its strength by using the recent market selling as a rest period. Excellent action and ready to break higher to a new all-time high.
Volume: 168.11K Avg Volume: 246.272K
BUY POINT: $36.11 Volume=374K Target=$42 Stop=$34.72
POSITION: QUS GG - July $35c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anss.html
Play Date: 04/02/2005
BCR (C.R. Bard--$68.75; +0.07; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcr.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. BCR tried to make the move Tuesday but volume was not strong enough to hold the move. Still looks super and ready to give us the breakout move. To recap: One of the stocks that is not showing any wear and tear in a selling market. BCR broke out of a 6.5 month base in mid-December, rallying up the 18 day EMA (67.63) up to 71. It has spent the past 8 weeks pulling back to test the move and moving back down to the 50 day EMA (66.77). It bounced sharply off that level 5 sessions back on above average volume and has since made a nice, orderly test of the 18 day. Nice pullback with money flow still moving higher ahead of the price even as the stop eases back. Big volume spike Wednesday as BCR held steady indicates a lot of buying activity. A strong leader with 3 to 1 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows more buyers than sellers in this nice consolidation. Looking for volume to jump again as it makes the move out of this nice pullback.
Volume: 563.3K Avg Volume: 586.181K
BUY POINT: $68.88 Volume=882K Target=$76 Stop=$67.12
POSITION: BCR GM - July $65c (76 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcr.html
Play Date: 03/12/2005
CHD (Church & Dwight--$35.65; +0.23; optionable): Cleaning products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chd.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Up off the 50 day EMA (34.93) Tuesday but volume was not. CHD is continuing its lateral move in a nice flat base above that support. Very nice pullback that used the market selling to test its prior run. Just being patient and waiting for the breakout move. To recap: A strong move higher from late January to early February took CHD higher from its last test of the 50 day. CHD split in early September during the formation of its base. Now it is setting up to continue the breakout run. Money flow is strong and volume has spiked higher the past two weeks when CHD made jumps off the 50 day EMA in the face of the market selling.
Volume: 123.5K Avg Volume: 270.636K
BUY POINT: $36.05 Volume=393K Target=$42.45 Stop=$34.96
POSITION: CHD GG - July $35c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chd.html
Play Date: 03/30/2005
MATR (Matria Healthcare--$30.73; +0.4; optionable): Home health care
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/matr.html
After Hours: $30.71
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Forming a very nice handle to its short base, holding over the 10 day EMA (30.08) Tuesday and bouncing to recoup some of the low volume losses Monday. Forming up very nicely and just being patient and waiting for the breakout move. To recap: To recap: A short but nice 8 week base has formed over key support at the 50 day EMA (28.75) as it sets up for a breakout to a new all-time high. Excellent 4 to 0 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume) shows all buying as it sets up for the move. Strong money flow is leading higher and relative strength is ready to make a breakout as well, a good corroboration of any breakout move. It formed this base right after it split, not atypical action. We like to look at post split plays after their first base following the split as that resets the clock so to speak and they make the next move higher.
Volume: 92.136K Avg Volume: 236.909K
BUY POINT: $30.89 Volume=353K Target=$36.85 Stop=$29.11
POSITION: PQT FF - June $30c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/matr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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