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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ABRX; AYE; ENER; HMX; LMT; UBET; ATYT
Monday night play results:
GR: Tried to run again but closed flat on lower, below average volume trade.
ATYT: Nice move lower.
EP: Set up nicely for the fall.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/05/2005
CLHB (Clean Harbors--$19.77; +0.60; optionable): Waste management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clhb.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Sweet little 10 week base has formed using the 50 day EMA (18.04) as support, showing the buyers stepping up to support it as it formed the pattern over that key support level. Volume was up Tuesday as CLHB continued the move up off the 50 day, heading for the breakout. Excellent money flow is surging higher ahead of price and relative strength is ready to breakout as well. Very nice and looking for volume to continue as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 214.001K Avg Volume: 154.681K
BUY POINT: $20.05 Volume=235K Target=$23.97 Stop=$18.88
POSITION: QPB GD - July $20c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/clhb.html
Play Date: 04/05/2005
GRU (Gurunet--$21.3; +2.22; no options): Information gathering on the web
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gru.html
STATUS: Double bottom. GURU was a new issue in October, and it surged from 7.50 to 28 from January to February. After that surge it has formed the current 8 week base using the 50 day EMA (17.41) as support for the two legs of the double bottom. Tuesday it was up from a test after the move off the 50 day last week. This is a decent pattern with solid 3 to 1 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) showing buyers in control during the base. It is also a momentum play; it can run like the wind. Looking to move in on a further solid volume bounce.
Volume: 624.3K Avg Volume: 883.772K
BUY POINT: $21.48 Volume=1.1M Target=$25.65 Stop=$20.55
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/gru.html
Downside:
Play Date: 04/05/2005
EPIC (Epicor Software--$12.55; -0.28; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/epic.html
After Hours: $12.55
STATUS: Put. Not a great day for software as two companies warned. When one warns it is expected that a bevy of warnings will follow as software runs in packs. If it is a bad quarter for one it typically means businesses are not in the buying mood. EPIC was already selling, having peaked in February and rolling over and through the 200 day SMA (13.41). It rebounded the past week, tapping that level Friday on the high. It has how turned over and is heading lower. Looking to move in and ride it toward the late September 2004 low. That move will land us a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 347.965K Avg Volume: 530.636K
BUY POINT: $12.42 Volume=530K Target=$11.38 Stop=$12.88
POSITION: EUE QV - May $12.50p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/epic.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
BR, COH, EASI, GTRC, HDWR, MSTR, STN, TSRA, UPL
Still looking for a few good stocks to replace GTRC, MSTR, EASI, and possibly UPL.
COH: Split Tuesday and posted a decent gain as it tries its move off the 50 day EMA.
HDWR: Sold through the 50 day EMA on rising though still above average volume. Needs to give us a quick recovery.
STN: Still in a very nice, low volume test of the strong mid-March breakout.
TSRA: Volume jumped well above average volume as TSRA broke higher off the 18 day EMA. A break over 45 on strong trade sends it to a new high and opens the door for more upside.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Downside:
ARIA: Moving down the 10 day EMA. Looking for another rebound toward that level to set up the next move lower.
NIKU: After a test of the 10 day EMA it looks ready to turn lower and start the selling again.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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