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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: BCR; JAH; STZ; BEBE; UNH
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 04/07/2005
TTC (Toro--$90.49; +0.89; optionable): Mowers, etc. Splits 2:1 on 4-13-05.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ttc.html
STATUS: Flat. TTC is making a lateral move along the 18 day EMA (88.89) the past three weeks, setting up for the run into the split next week. Looking for a quick move, but it is also a run to $100; stocks that have good momentum and move past 90 often continue on to 100. Volume was up Thursday, indicating it is ready to make the move. Looking for continued volume start the run.
Volume: 177.4K Avg Volume: 175.09K
BUY POINT: $90.82 Volume=263K Target=$99.55 Stop=$88.92
POSITION: TTC FR - June $90c (58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ttc.html
Play Date: 04/07/2005
TTWO (Take-Two Interactive--$39.83; +0.72; optionable): Interactive software games. Splits 3:2 on 4-12-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ttwo.html
After Hours: $39.81
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. After a nice surge to start March TTWO fell back the rest of the month in a 50 day EMA (38.33) test. This is actually forming a handle to a much larger 18 month cup with handle base. After this test TTWO moved back up through the 18 and 10 day EMA (39.52, 39.54) Thursday. Volume has yet to move with it. Money flow is solid, however, and if the amrekt and TTWO get some trade it looks ready to start the next leg.
Volume: 662.53K Avg Volume: 1.161M
BUY POINT: $40.28 Volume=1.3M Target=$45 Stop=$38.92
POSITION: TUO FH - June $40c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ttwo.html
Continuing downside play:
Play Date: 04/04/2005
SSI (Spectrasite--$58.74; +0.2; optionable): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssi.html
STATUS: Put. Still struggling below the 50 day EMA (59.36), tapping that level Thursday on the intraday high and then fading for a modest gain on rising though still below average volume. Second doji below this support, and the higher volume often indicates churn, high volume turnover, when a stock is below key resistance. To recap: After a long run higher SSI peaked in early March and fell through the 50 day EMA as volume ramped higher. Volume stayed high as the stock fell and then dropped as it rebounded back up to test resistance. Money flow is heading lower and it has been under distribution the past month. Want to see volume increase as it starts lower.
Volume: 509.1K Avg Volume: 476.636K
BUY POINT: $57.85 Volume=720K Target=$55.61 Stop=$58.72
POSITION: SSI QL - May $60p (-71 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ssi.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all positions but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
AHC: Forecast 4-26-05
APPX: Forecast 4-20-05
BOL: Forecast 4-19-05 before the open.
CNMD: Forecast 5-17-05
CTSH: Forecast 4-11-05 or 4-19-05.
CVH: Tentatively forecast 5-3-05 before the open.
ESRX: Forecast 4-26-05.
GPN: No split announced 3-21-05. Still in a lateral move over the 10 day EMA after the big breakout move.
GVA: Forecast 4-27-05
GYI: Forecast 4-20-05
IEX: Forecast to announce on or about 4-21-05
IHP: Forecast 4-8-05 in conjunction with a board meeting.
IMDC: Forecast in early May. Had to bail Wednesday as it reversed its move.
IR: Forecast 4-6-05 with a board meeting or 4-9-05 with earnings. No announcement with the Wednesday board meeting, and it is simply not giving us any entry point with this pattern now below the 50 day EMA.
JAH: Forecast 4-28-05
MON: Forecast 4-6-05. No split but good earnings. Did not blast the stock higher, at least not for the entire session.
OMC: Forecast 4-26-05 in conjunction with earnings or 5-24-05 with a board meeting.
ORLY: Forecast 4-26-05. Volume is getting even better as it starts off the 18 day EMA.
PD: Forecast in late April. Trying to settle down with a doji at the 50 day EMA.
PSUN: Forecast early May. Retail sales were disappointing and PSUN gapped to the 50 day EMA and then rebounded to hold that level. Will see if it can rebound.
SIE: Forecast 4-25-05
STR: Early May. Now it just needs to show more volume as it moves through 60.
STZ: Forecast 4-7-05. Announced the split after the close and was up solidly.
UNH: Forecast 4-14-05 before the open or 5-12-05 with a board meeting.
VLO: Forecast 4-27-05.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 04/07/2005
DIOD (Diodes--$28.25; +1.20; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits. Forecast to announce a split 4-28-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Last split its stock 3:2 on 11-26-03 at 28.50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/diod.html
After Hours: $28.20
STATUS: Cup w/handle. DIOD announced its earnings date and upped its guidance Thursday, propelling it to start the breakout from its 5.5 month base. Strong 5 to 3 accumulation in the pattern shows net buyers, and money flow is surging higher ahead of price, plowing the field for DIOD to follow. Ready to start a position on a continued breakout move.
Volume: 466.995K Avg Volume: 143K
BUY POINT: $28.44 Volume=214K Target=$33.35 Stop=$27.32
POSITION: DUH IE - Sept. $25c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/diod.html
Play Date: 04/07/2005
SHLD (Sears Holding Corp.--$138.73; +0.31; optionable): Retail. Forecast to announce a split 4-21-05.
BACKGROUND: No split history for S, KMRT or the new entity, but at $140 it is ripe.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/shld.html
After Hours: $139.50
STATUS: Breakout test. Sears/Kmart broke higher in March, gapping up on volume as the retail deal was closed. It has rallied higher since with another big burst Monday. It has come back to test that move on lower volume, showing a nice doji right on top of the 10 day EMA (135.74). Looks ready to make the rebound and we are going to step in anc catch some momentum.
Volume: 5.418M Avg Volume: 1.196M
BUY POINT: $140.12 Volume=6M Target=$150 Stop=$135.55
POSITION: KTQ FW - June $140c (53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/shld.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
New buy points on current plays:
Play Date: 04/05/2005
CTSH (Cognizant Technology--$47.54; +0.04; optionable): Custom IT services for Fortune 1,000 companies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctsh.html
After Hours: $47.50
STATUS: Cup. Forming a small handle to the short 6 week cup formed during the March selling. This action on lower volume is setting up the next move higher. To recap: CTSH in true leadership fashion, held up very well, using the selling to consolidate its early February breakout. It formed the new base over the 50 day EMA (44.42), an indication that the owners were ready to support the stock as it tested back. It has reset and we are looking to pick up some more positions as it moves through the buy point on solid trade.
Volume: 1.028M Avg Volume: 1.86M
BUY POINT: $48.25 Volume=2.2M Target=$55 Stop=$45.84
POSITION: UPU GI - July $45c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ctsh.html
Buy not yet hit:
Play Date: 03/23/2005
BOL (Bausch & Lomb--$74.6; +0.26; optionable): Medical instruments (contact lenses, etc.). Forecast to announce a split on 4-19-05 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUD: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-30-91 at a stock price of $80. Prior to that announced a 2 for 1 split on 10-5-83.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bol.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Volume has moved higher the past two sessions as BOL moves up to knock at the breakout. It has used the 50 day EMA (71.99) as it makes a series of higher lows below the high near 75. Building pressure from below for the breakout, and the rising volume indicates the break higher is nearing. Moves from these bases can be explosive so we want to be ready to step in.
Volume: 480.1K Avg Volume: 496.681K
BUY POINT: $75.05 Volume=700K Target=$82 Stop=$73.22
POSITION: BOL GO - July $75c (51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bol.html
Play Date: 04/05/2005
DGX (Quest Diagnostics--$105.81; +0.85; optionable): Medical Laboratories. Forecast 4-21-04 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND. Announced a 2:1 split on 2-22-01 at a price of $101.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dgx.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Posted a gain Thursday, but volume was still low and well below average. DGX continues in its lateral flying plateau, and we just need to see more trade as it makes the break higher to move in. To recap: DGX exploded higher last week on an upgrade and comments at a healthcare conference. That broke it out of a 6 week flat base that formed over the 18 day EMA (102), and now it is moving laterally, holding 104 on the lows as the 10 day EMA (103.93) rises to meet it. Money flow is outstanding and surging ahead of the stock. Relative strength is strong as well, ready to breakout once more. It may take a couple more sessions before it is finished this lateral consolidation, and when it blows higher again on strong volume we are ready to start a position in the stock.
Volume: 371.9K Avg Volume: 584.181K
BUY POINT: New: $106.11 (orig. $105.65) Volume=875K Target=$115 Stop=$103.05
POSITION: DGX QA - May $105c (60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dgx.html
Play Date: 04/05/2005
ESRX (Express Scripts--$87.82; +0.92; optionable): Mail order prescription plans. Forecast 4-26-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split in February 2001 at $88.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
After Hours: $87.82
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. ESRX is knocking on the door of the breakout, but volume slipped Thursday as it tapped the 10 day EMA (86.14) and rebounded for a nice gain. Still ready. To recap: ESRX has formed a short, neat 5 week base that is working to consolidate the strong gap higher in early March on a very strong earnings report and outlook. This sideways base is working to set up the next buy point and Tuesday it was up off the 10 day EMA on rising, above average volume. Money flow remains strong and is leading higher ahead of the stock. Looking for the price and volume to follow it higher and give us another good entry point.
Volume: 613.361K Avg Volume: 819.227K
BUY POINT: New: $87.95 (orig. $87.81) Volume=1.2M Target=$94 Stop=$84.38
POSITION: XTQ HQ - Aug. $85c (62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/esrx.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/02/2005
ANSS (Ansys--$35.26; -0.34; optionable): Technical and system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anss.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. After the strong volume off the 50 day EMA (34.36) ANSS has spent the past three sessions easing back to the 18 day EMA (35.11) on lower, below average volume. This is a good test, setting up the next move higher as it continues to build its current base. To recap: To recap: ANSS broke out in mid-February, moving out of a 10 week base and hitting 38 on the move. The past six weeks it has made an orderly test of the move as the market sold, holding the key 50 day EMA. Last Friday the stock rebounded off the 50 day on a good shot of rising, above average volume. Solid money flow and relative strength strong as well as ANSS is a market leader that showed its strength by using the recent market selling as a rest period. Excellent action and ready to break higher to a new all-time high.
Volume: 123.813K Avg Volume: 246.272K
BUY POINT: $36.11 Volume=374K Target=$42 Stop=$34.72
POSITION: QUS GG - July $35c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anss.html
Play Date: 03/12/2005
CHD (Church & Dwight--$36.63; +0.67; optionable): Cleaning products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chd.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Volume was up and the move was good enough to enter but we held off. Nice break over resistance on volume that was above average but not quite to the target. If you got in, good for you. It is, however, still a buy on this move, and we are looking to open a position as it continues higher and then look at adding to the play when it makes the test of the breakout move. To recap: A strong move higher from late January to early February took CHD higher from its last test of the 50 day. CHD split in early September during the formation of its base. Now it is setting up to continue the breakout run. Money flow is strong and volume has spiked higher the past two weeks when CHD made jumps off the 50 day EMA in the face of the market selling.
Volume: 267.6K Avg Volume: 270.636K
BUY POINT: New: $36.78 (orig. $36.05) Volume=393K Target=$42.45 Stop=$34.96
POSITION: CHD GG - July $35c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chd.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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