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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: CNTY; JAH; AV; FAST
Thursday night play results:
ANTP: Another nice, low volume doji at the 18 day EMA setting up the bounce.
CYBX: Pulled back from the strong Thursday move and we decided to start a position.
DIOD: Low volume pullback, and may tap the 10 day EMA before it is ready to go again.
SHLD: bounced up off the 10 day EMA and we started a position.
AXP Still ready to fall from the 18 day EMA.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/09/2005
AAPL (Apple Computer--$43.74; +0.18; optionable): Ipods and Imacs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aapl.html
After Hours: $43.77
STATUS: Ascending triangle. AAPL split in late February as it started to fall into the current base following a strong run early in the year. It is moving toward the breakout of this 7 week base that formed using the 50 day EMA (40.68). Positive 2 to 1 accumulation in the base (2 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows buyers moving into the stock during the lateral consolidation. Friday it tried to make a break higher over the mid-March high with volume moving up above average, but it faded on the close for a modest gain. Given the overall market was in the dumpster Friday, that is not bad action. That shows solid strength, and we are looking to move into that strength as the stock moves back above 44 on stronger trade.
Volume: 23.231M Avg Volume: 33.345M
BUY POINT: $44.05 Volume=36M Target=$50 Stop=$42.35
POSITION: QAA GV - July $42.50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aapl.html
Play Date: 04/09/2005
GME (Gamestop--$21.78; -0.21; optionable): Electronic games stores.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gme.html
STATUS: Test breakout. You could call this a 19 week cup with handle base or a breakout test. Either way it is a nice base with a strong breakout and good test the past two weeks to the 18 day EMA (21.64). Solid action, using the market selling to make a low volume test of the high volume break higher in late March when it announced strong Q4 results and then guided higher for Q1. Strong 7 to 4 accumulation in the base (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume) shows a lot of buyers, setting up the breakout. Nice pullback to test the break higher, holding at the 18 day EMA last week. Looking for strong volume to propel it higher once more and continue the breakout move. That is where we step in and take positions.
Volume: 261.5K Avg Volume: 424.454K
BUY POINT: $22.22 Volume=450K Target=$25.48 Stop=$21.55
POSITION: GME GD - July $20c (79 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gme.html
Play Date: 04/09/2005
PIXR (Pixar--$98.95; +0.22; optionable): Multimedia movies. Splits 2:1 on 4-19-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pixr.html
After Hours: $99.06
STATUS: Test breakout. PIXR made us a decent gain on the last run and we said we would take a look at it again at the 10 day EMA (97.67) if it held. Well it did on Friday, not even reaching the 10 day before bouncing modestly. Volume was much lower, however, and thus we expect PIXR to go ahead and complete the test. We are looking for the stock to hot and hold the 10 day on the close and then start back up. That is where we move in once more for another move into the upcoming split. We don't mind playing pre-splits over and over as they make their moves up and down. We will take a few 15% gains on our options, or if it gets a head of steam under it and hits the target we can bank in the neighborhood of 55%.
Volume: 445.401K Avg Volume: 562.227K
BUY POINT: $99.35 Volume=600K Target=$107 Stop=$97.55
POSITION: PQJ GT - July $100c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pixr.html
Play Date: 04/09/2005
WFR (Memc Electronic--$13.19; -0.01; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfr.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. After an explosive late February and early March move that took WFR near 15, it has spent the past 4 weeks testing back to the 50 day EMA (12.98) on low, mostly below average volume. This has fully tested the breakout from its 9 week double bottom base, a base sporting solid 4 to 2 accumulation. It sold during the market pullback and it did not rally last week on the low volume bounce. To us that shows the stock is minding its own business and will move when it is ready; those are leadership characteristics as opposed to the herd that runs up if the market does and then runs down as fast. Looking for a high volume bounce off of this level to give us the entry point.
Volume: 1.377M Avg Volume: 1.649M
BUY POINT: $13.62 Volume=2M Target=$16.35 Stop=$12.87
POSITION: WFR GV - July $12.50c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wfr.html
Downside:
Play Date: 04/09/2005
MUSA (Metals USA--$19.82; -0.47; optionable): Processed steel, aluminum, specialty metals.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/musa.html
STATUS: Put. MUSA spiked sharply higher in late February, hitting 25 on the peak before rolling over. It broke through the 50 day EMA (20.66) to end March and then spent the past two weeks rebounding on lower volume to test that move. Wednesday it tried to make the move above that level but faded back. Friday it started lower on rising volume. Looks ready to follow tanking money flow lower, and we are looking to capture that move to bag a 40%ish gain to the target.
Volume: 337.56K Avg Volume: 407.681K
BUY POINT: $19.69 Volume=400K Target=$18.42 Stop=$19.94
POSITION: JZU QD - May $22.50p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/musa.html
Play Date: 04/09/2005
SYK (Stryker--$45.57; -0.49; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syk.html
STATUS: Put. SYK formed a broad top from January to early March and then broke lower below the 200 day SMA (47.51) later that month. It tested the 18 day EMA (46.25) as it tried to rebound to the 200 day, but it could not make it that high before gapping lower on heavy trade. It ahs spent the past week recovering, moving back up to fill the gap and once more test the 18 day EMA. Friday it started to roll back over from that resistance. Stocks that are starting a downtrend find the 10 or 18 day EMA as near resistance. With money flow diving lower we anticipate SYK is going to continue this downtrend. A move to the target lands us a 41% gain.
Volume: 1.11M Avg Volume: 1.961M
BUY POINT: $45.45 Volume=1.1M Target=$42.89 Stop=$45.84
POSITION: SYK QH - May $45p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/syk.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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