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us stock market, stock ticker
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: TKTX; EMR; JNPR
Thursday night play results:
ALSK: Still working laterally over the 10 day EMA in a strong breakout test.
CYBX: Pulled back from the strong Thursday move and we decided to start a position.
MACR: Doji on continued below average volume.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/09/2005
GME (Gamestop--$21.78; -0.21; optionable): Electronic games stores.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gme.html
STATUS: Test breakout. You could call this a 19 week cup with handle base or a breakout test. Either way it is a nice base with a strong breakout and good test the past two weeks to the 18 day EMA (21.64). Solid action, using the market selling to make a low volume test of the high volume break higher in late March when it announced strong Q4 results and then guided higher for Q1. Strong 7 to 4 accumulation in the base (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume) shows a lot of buyers, setting up the breakout. Nice pullback to test the break higher, holding at the 18 day EMA last week. Looking for strong volume to propel it higher once more and continue the breakout move. That is where we step in and take positions.
Volume: 261.5K Avg Volume: 424.454K
BUY POINT: $22.22 Volume=450K Target=$25.48 Stop=$21.55
POSITION: GME GD - July $20c (79 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/gme.html
Play Date: 04/09/2005
ASPM (Aspect Medical--$22.64; +0.1; no options): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aspm.html
STATUS: Cup. ASPM made us some good money in the 2004 end of year run, and after that peak in late December it has moved into the current 14 week base, setting up once more for another breakout and another run to make us money once more. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation in the base (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows many buyers during the consolidation, laying the foundation for the next move higher. Volume has started to move back up the past two weeks, and that indicates ASPM is setting up to move higher and build the right side of its base. We are looking to move in on a high volume move through they buy point to take part in that move and then the breakout.
Volume: 58.696K Avg Volume: 104.909K
BUY POINT: $22.88 Volume=175K Target=$27.22 Stop=$21.78
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/aspm.html
Downside:
Play Date: 04/09/2005
MUSA (Metals USA--$19.82; -0.47; optionable): Processed steel, aluminum, specialty metals.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/musa.html
STATUS: Put. MUSA spiked sharply higher in late February, hitting 25 on the peak before rolling over. It broke through the 50 day EMA (20.66) to end March and then spent the past two weeks rebounding on lower volume to test that move. Wednesday it tried to make the move above that level but faded back. Friday it started lower on rising volume. Looks ready to follow tanking money flow lower, and we are looking to capture that move to bag a 40%ish gain to the target.
Volume: 337.56K Avg Volume: 407.681K
BUY POINT: $19.69 Volume=400K Target=$18.42 Stop=$19.94
POSITION: JZU QD - May $22.50p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/musa.html
Play Date: 04/09/2005
WFC (Wells Fargo--$59.56; -0.32; optionable): Big money center bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfc.html
STATUS: Put. WFC peaked in December with something of a head shoulders pattern and then rolled over and has trended down, bouncing down from the 50 day EMA (59.98) two times in this move. It has once more rallied back to the 50 day, this time having to deal with the 200 day SMA (59.85) as well after breaking through that level on the last leg lower in mid-March. The past two weeks volume has been negative, with down sessions coming on the heavier volume. After a three day lateral move below the 200 day last week, Friday WFC fell back through that level after a gap higher. Volume climbed as it gapped and sold, showing sellers using the move to enter. Looking for WFC to continue lower on a bit more volume to show sellers are staying on the stock and pushing it lower. With money flow tanking hard ahead of price, we are looking for a nice and relatively quick move to the target once the selling starts. That will land us a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 3.661M Avg Volume: 3.722M
BUY POINT: $59.46 Volume=3.8M Target=$58.05 Stop=$59.91
POSITION: WFC QL - May $60p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/wfc.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, BLUD, BR, COH, HW, STN, TSRA
New additions: BLUD, AAPL
AAPL: After splitting in late February, AAPL is attempting to set up for the next move higher, forming a 7 week ascending triangle over the 50 day EMA. A break over 45 is a clear breakout from this base.
BLUD: A big rocky last week, but recovered and held the current 10 week flat base over the 50 day EMA. A break over 32 is a clean breakout move.
TSRA: Still knocking at the breakout over 45.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Downside:
GTI: Making a very weak attempt to move through the 10 day EMA after a nasty plunge in mid-March as it fell out of a 4.5 month consolidation attempt.
Upside:
FHR: Nice 15 week cup with handle base has formed as FHR (Fairmont Hotels) sets up for another breakout to another new high. Lodging is very solid.
FLDR: Trying to break clear from some resistance just over 11.50 so it can continue its early March breakout.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
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