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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: JAH; STZ; BEBE; SHLD
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 04/09/2005
PIXR (Pixar--$98.95; +0.22; optionable): Multimedia movies. Splits 2:1 on 4-19-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pixr.html
After Hours: $99.06
STATUS: Test breakout. PIXR made us a decent gain on the last run and we said we would take a look at it again at the 10 day EMA (97.67) if it held. Well it did on Friday, not even reaching the 10 day before bouncing modestly. Volume was much lower, however, and thus we expect PIXR to go ahead and complete the test. We are looking for the stock to hot and hold the 10 day on the close and then start back up. That is where we move in once more for another move into the upcoming split. We don't mind playing pre-splits over and over as they make their moves up and down. We will take a few 15% gains on our options, or if it gets a head of steam under it and hits the target we can bank in the neighborhood of 55%.
Volume: 445.401K Avg Volume: 562.227K
BUY POINT: $99.35 Volume=600K Target=$107 Stop=$97.55
POSITION: PQJ GT - July $100c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pixr.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 04/09/2005
AAPL (Apple Computer--$43.74; +0.18; optionable): Ipods and Imacs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aapl.html
After Hours: $43.77
STATUS: Ascending triangle. AAPL split in late February as it started to fall into the current base following a strong run early in the year. It is moving toward the breakout of this 7 week base that formed using the 50 day EMA (40.68). Positive 2 to 1 accumulation in the base (2 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows buyers moving into the stock during the lateral consolidation. Friday it tried to make a break higher over the mid-March high with volume moving up above average, but it faded on the close for a modest gain. Given the overall market was in the dumpster Friday, that is not bad action. That shows solid strength, and we are looking to move into that strength as the stock moves back above 44 on stronger trade.
Volume: 23.231M Avg Volume: 33.345M
BUY POINT: $44.05 Volume=36M Target=$50 Stop=$42.35
POSITION: QAA GV - July $42.50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aapl.html
New Downside Plays:
Play Date: 04/09/2005
SYK (Stryker--$45.57; -0.49; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syk.html
STATUS: Put. SYK formed a broad top from January to early March and then broke lower below the 200 day SMA (47.51) later that month. It tested the 18 day EMA (46.25) as it tried to rebound to the 200 day, but it could not make it that high before gapping lower on heavy trade. It ahs spent the past week recovering, moving back up to fill the gap and once more test the 18 day EMA. Friday it started to roll back over from that resistance. Stocks that are starting a downtrend find the 10 or 18 day EMA as near resistance. With money flow diving lower we anticipate SYK is going to continue this downtrend. A move to the target lands us a 41% gain.
Volume: 1.11M Avg Volume: 1.961M
BUY POINT: $45.45 Volume=1.1M Target=$42.89 Stop=$45.84
POSITION: SYK QH - May $45p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/syk.html
Continuing downside play:
Play Date: 04/04/2005
SSI (Spectrasite--$58.28; -0.46; optionable): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssi.html
STATUS: Put. After a high volume tap at the 50 day EMA (59.32) Thursday that faded, SSI slipped lower Friday but on very low volume. Looks ready to make the drop from the test of this support level. To recap: After a long run higher SSI peaked in early March and fell through the 50 day EMA as volume ramped higher. Volume stayed high as the stock fell and then dropped as it rebounded back up to test resistance. Money flow is heading lower and it has been under distribution the past month. Want to see volume increase as it starts lower.
Volume: 243.8K Avg Volume: 468.409K
BUY POINT: $57.85 Volume=720K Target=$55.61 Stop=$58.72
POSITION: SSI QL - May $60p (-71 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ssi.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all positions but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
AHC: Forecast 4-26-05
APPX: Forecast 4-20-05
BOL: Forecast 4-19-05 before the open.
CNMD: Forecast 5-17-05
CTSH: Forecast 4-11-05 or 4-19-05.
CVH: Tentatively forecast 5-3-05 before the open.
DIOD: Forecast 4-28-05
ESRX: Forecast 4-26-05.
GPN: No split announced 3-21-05. Continues the lateral move over the 10 day EMA after the big breakout.
GVA: Forecast 4-27-05
GYI: Forecast 4-20-05
IEX: Forecast to announce on or about 4-21-05
IHP: No split announced with the board meeting on 4-8-05.
JAH: Forecast 4-28-05
OMC: Forecast 4-26-05 in conjunction with earnings or 5-24-05 with a board meeting.
ORLY: Forecast 4-26-05. Unable to continue the move off the 50 day EMA, but still consolidating.
PD: Forecast in late April. Volume was up Friday as PD moved back to the 50 day EMA. Not the best pattern to move into at this juncture.
PSUN: Forecast early May. Unable to rebound back above the 50 day.
SHLD: Forecast 4-21-05
SIE: Forecast 4-25-05. Turned over on a downgrade and we exited with a decent gain. Will see if it can form back up, but a nasty turn.
STR: Early May. Still waiting for some more volume.
STZ: Forecast 4-7-05. Gapped higher so we took the gain. Will look for new positions after it tests the gap.
UNH: Forecast 4-14-05 before the open or 5-12-05 with a board meeting.
VLO: Forecast 4-27-05.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 04/09/2005
DVA (Davita--$43.26; 0; optionable): Specialized healthcare. Forecast 5-18-05 after the close in conjunction with a board meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 5-17-04 at $46.20. Prior to that split 5:3 10-21-97 at $45.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dva.html
STATUS: Flat base. Volume started higher to end last week as DVA moved toward the top end of its 12 wee flat base that has formed using the 50 day EMA (41.66) as support. Key support level for stocks as it shows the big money willing to accumulate shares of their favorite stocks at a lower price. Solid money flow is leading higher, and relative strength has already moved to a breakout ahead of the price; that is a bullish indication that the stocks will follow. Friday DVA showed a doji after a strong session Thursday. Willing to start a partial position on a move higher if volume is strong and then add to the position on a breakout over 44. A move over that level puts this leader at a new all-time high.
Volume: 723.2K Avg Volume: 739.272K
BUY POINT: $43.57 Volume=1.1M Target=$49 Stop=$42.12
POSITION: DVA GH - July $40c (78 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dva.html
Play Date: 04/09/2005
POT (Potash--$88.39; -0.11; optionable): Fertilizer ingredients. Forecast to announce a 2:1 split on 4-27-05 or in conjunction with its shareholder meeting on 5-5-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 7-21-04 at $91.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pot.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle/Run to $100. A neat little double bottom with handle base has formed over the 50 day EMA (85.27) the past 6 weeks. This base follows a strong July to February run; it needed a breather, and this pattern is giving it a chance to catch its breath. POT spent the last part of last week pulling back to the 10 day EMA (87.74), forming the handle to its short base. Friday it showed a doji at the 10 day, and we are looking at that as a get ready signal for a positive bounce higher to the breakout. We want to see volume surge higher with that move to start positions. The first buy point is aggressive as it is below the recent highs near 90. That is why we want to see volume moving higher or we will wait until it makes the clean breakout move. Strong stocks that clear 90 tend to run toward 100. Thus POT has a few things going for it here.
Volume: 410.3K Avg Volume: 443.181K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $89.45; Breakout: $90.97 Volume=525K Target=$98 Stop=$87.15
POSITION: POT FR - June $90c (44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pot.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
New buy points on current plays:
Play Date: 04/09/2005
IEX (Idex--$40.83; +0.71; optionable): Engineered industrial products. Forecast to announce a split on or about 4-21-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 4-22-04 at $44.80.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iex.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. IEX jumped off the 50 day EMA (39.93) Friday with a good volume surge with trade moving back up to average. This follows a 4 week test of the early March breakout from a 9 week base. Strong money flow is leading higher ahead of the price, and IEX is starting to follow it. Looks ready for the next move.
Volume: 218.3K Avg Volume: 223.227K
BUY POINT: $40.95 Volume=348K Target=$46 Stop=$38.78
POSITION: IEX GH - July $40c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/iex.html
Buy not yet hit:
Play Date: 03/23/2005
BOL (Bausch & Lomb--$74.42; -0.18; optionable): Medical instruments (contact lenses, etc.). Forecast to announce a split on 4-19-05 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUD: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-30-91 at a stock price of $80. Prior to that announced a 2 for 1 split on 10-5-83.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bol.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Still knocking at the breakout door though volume faded way off pace Friday as BOL held steady. Very nice pattern still ready to show us the breakout. To recap: BOL has used the 50 day EMA (72.08) as it makes a series of higher lows below the high near 75. Building pressure from below for the breakout, and the rising volume indicates the break higher is nearing. Moves from these bases can be explosive so we want to be ready to step in.
Volume: 168.1K Avg Volume: 486.818K
BUY POINT: $75.05 Volume=700K Target=$82 Stop=$73.22
POSITION: BOL GO - July $75c (51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bol.html
Play Date: 04/05/2005
DGX (Quest Diagnostics--$105.41; -0.4; optionable): Medical Laboratories. Forecast 4-21-04 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND. Announced a 2:1 split on 2-22-01 at a price of $101.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dgx.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Very low volume Friday as DGX gave back some of its Thursday move, both sessions on that low trade. Need to see that volume spike as it makes the break from this flying plateau. Very strong leader. To recap: DGX exploded higher last week on an upgrade and comments at a healthcare conference. That broke it out of a 6 week flat base that formed over the 18 day EMA (102.99), and now it is moving laterally, holding 104 on the lows as the 10 day EMA (104.20) rises to meet it. Money flow is outstanding and surging ahead of the stock. Relative strength is strong as well, ready to breakout once more. It may take a couple more sessions before it is finished this lateral consolidation, and when it blows higher again on strong volume we are ready to start a position in the stock.
Volume: 251.5K Avg Volume: 574.181K
BUY POINT: New: $106.11 (orig. $105.65) Volume=875K Target=$115 Stop=$103.05
POSITION: DGX QA - May $105c (60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dgx.html
Play Date: 04/07/2005
DIOD (Diodes--$27.81; -0.44; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits. Forecast to announce a split 4-28-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Last split its stock 3:2 on 11-26-03 at 28.50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/diod.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Strong move on solid volume Thursday, and then a nice ease back Friday on low volume. That is setting up the move even better. To recap: DIOD announced its earnings date and upped its guidance last Thursday, propelling it to start the breakout from its 5.5 month base. Strong 5 to 3 accumulation in the pattern shows net buyers, and money flow is surging higher ahead of price, plowing the field for DIOD to follow. After this little test it will be in great shape to resume the move and for us to enter.
Volume: 125.469K Avg Volume: 141.272K
BUY POINT: $28.44 Volume=214K Target=$33.35 Stop=$27.32
POSITION: DUH IE - Sept. $25c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/diod.html
Play Date: 04/05/2005
ESRX (Express Scripts--$85.95; -1.87; optionable): Mail order prescription plans. Forecast 4-26-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split in February 2001 at $88.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
After Hours: $85.95
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still right at the next breakout, but faded Friday on very low volume along with the market. It still closed above the 18 day EMA (85.18), and this move only works to set up the breakout even better as it works through the last sellers. To recap: ESRX has formed a short, neat 5 week base that is working to consolidate the strong gap higher in early March on a very strong earnings report and outlook. This sideways base is working to set up the next buy point and Tuesday it was up off the 10 day EMA on rising, above average volume. Money flow remains strong and is leading higher ahead of the stock. Looking for the price and volume to follow it higher and give us another good entry point.
Volume: 623.698K Avg Volume: 814.727K
BUY POINT: $87.81 Volume=1.2M Target=$94 Stop=$84.38
POSITION: XTQ HQ - Aug. $85c (62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/esrx.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/07/2005
TTC (Toro--$90.06; -0.43; optionable): Mowers, etc. Splits 2:1 on 4-13-05.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ttc.html
STATUS: Flat/Run to 100. Continues its lateral move just over 90 as the 10 day EMA (89.52) pushes on it from below. Looking for that strong volume shown Thursday to return and push it on through the buy point. To recap: TTC is making a lateral move over the 10 day EMA the past three weeks, setting up for the run into the split next week. Looking for a quick move, but it is also a run to $100; stocks that have good momentum and move past 90 often continue on to 100. Again, want to see more volume as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 106.1K Avg Volume: 166.363K
BUY POINT: $90.82 Volume=263K Target=$99.55 Stop=$88.92
POSITION: TTC FR - June $90c (58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ttc.html
Play Date: 04/07/2005
TTWO (Take-Two Intera--$39.78; -0.05; optionable): Interactive software games. Splits 3:2 on 4-12-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ttwo.html
After Hours: $39.70
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Took the day off Friday on extremely low volume, holding steady and surveying the breakout ahead. Has set up very well with this nice test of the 50 day EMA (38.38) just ahead of the split date. Looking for a run into and through the actual split early next week. To recap: After a nice surge to start March TTWO fell back the rest of the month in a 50 day EMA test. This is actually forming a handle to a much larger 18 month cup with handle base. After this test TTWO moved back up through the 18 and 10 day EMA Thursday. Volume has yet to move with it. Money flow is solid, however, and we are looking for that money flow to lead it higher into the split.
Volume: 315.487K Avg Volume: 1.108M
BUY POINT: $40.28 Volume=1.3M Target=$45 Stop=$38.92
POSITION: TUO FH - June $40c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ttwo.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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