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stock ticker, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ASPM; AN; ATYT; MUSA
Weekend play results:
GME: Not great action, slipping below the 18 day EMA on continued low volume.
ASPM: Nice volume break higher.
MUSA: Fell on rising volume.
WFC: Recovered the 200 day SMA, but no volume.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/11/2005
DOX (Amdocs--$29.78; +0.33; optionable): Integrated customer management software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dox.html
STATUS: Cup. DOX has rallied up to the top of its 10 week base, knocking at the breakout point the past three sessions. It has not broken out but it is holding the move, ready to break on through. Strong 3 to 0 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume) shows continued buying in the pattern as it forms up using the 50 day EMA (28.49) as rough support for the base. A breakout takes it to a 2.5 year high, and it looks ready to follow money flow higher.
Volume: 951K Avg Volume: 1.236M
BUY POINT: $30.29 Volume=1.9M Target=$35 Stop=$29
POSITION: DOX GF - July $30c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/dox.html
Play Date: 04/11/2005
GLBL (Global Industries--$10.66; +0.18; optionable): Heavy construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/glbl.html
After Hours: $10.69
STATUS: Breakout test. GLBL exploded out of a base on base combination last week, and has come back to test that move. Monday it bounced higher on a strong shot of volume, tapping the 10 day EMA (10.14) on the low and surging to a gain. This is a successful test of the breakout from a 5 week cup base over the 50 day EMA (9.24) that formed immediately following a 10 week base. Excellent 3 to 0 accumulation in the recent pattern set up the breakout, and it is continuing the run. Strong money flow and a relative strength made the breakout on the recent move. Very good pattern with strong price/volume action. Love those first breakout tests as a point to move in as it 'proves up' the breakout move.
Volume: 1.545M Avg Volume: 792.818K
BUY POINT: $10.78 Volume=850K Target=$12.95 Stop=$10.47
POSITION: GQO IB - Sept. $10c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/glbl.html
Downside:
Play Date: 04/11/2005
FSH (Fisher Scientific--$57.86; +0.14; optionable): Wholesale electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fsh.html
STATUS: Put. Broke higher in December, tested and then moved to a high in early February. It has rolled over from there and after a weak bounce off the 200 day SMA (58.56) to end March it went crashing through on strong volume. The past week it rebounded to test that breakdown, and it has stalled out just below the 200 day. Looking for some more volume to come back into the stock as it fails this test and resumes the downside move. A move down to the target lands us a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 589.2K Avg Volume: 1.194M
BUY POINT: $57.62 Volume=1M Target=$55.58 Stop=$58.35
POSITION: FSH QL - May $60p (-57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/fsh.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, BLUD, BR, COH, HW, STN, TSRA
BR: Has come back to test the 18 day EMA on low volume and looks to have shaken out the last sellers in its short 6 week cup with handle.
COH: Really starting to struggle post-split. Slipped below the 50 day EMA and needs to come back and recover that level quickly.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Downside:
NAPS: A double top in January and February and then trending lower, using the 50 day EMA as resistance on the upside moves. It has rebounded to the 50 day EMA the past three sessions as volume has trailed off to below average. Money flow has turned up sharply the past week. Need to be a bit careful with this one with the strong money flow and as it is not too far over the 200 day SMA.
Upside:
AEOS: Reported tremendous same store sales last week but could not make a further move. Still, it is coming back to test the 10 day EMA on low volume as it consolidates some after rebounding off its 50 day EMA to end March.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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