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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: TKTX; AN; ATYT; EMR; EP; EPIC; FSH; JNPR; LOW
Thursday night play results:
HYTM: Held up well, high volume, ready to roll.
HLEX: Ignored the selling, still simply working laterally in its base.
MSCC: Sold to the 200 day SMA where it held. Now set to rebound.
New Plays:
Downside:
Play Date: 04/16/2005
BR (Burlington Resources--$48.25; -1.65; optionable): Oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/br.html
After Hours: $48.21
STATUS: Double top. BR broke below the 50 day EMA (48.83) Friday on a huge volume surge. This move follows its recent double top in March and early April. The second top was on very low volume, showing no real conviction in the move higher. The stock simply runs out of buyers on the second try and the sellers take over. It came up off the low (47.46) to close, and it may try to test the 50 day before it continues lower. It is weak, however, and on a further move through 48 we will look to start a position. Money flow is diving ahead of the stock and we anticipate BR is going to follow. A move to the target gives us a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 5.892M Avg Volume: 2.958M
BUY POINT: $47.95 Volume=3.5M Target=$46 Stop=$48.38
POSITION: BR QJ - May $50p (-61 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/br.html
Upside:
Play Date: 04/16/2005
GENZ (Genzyme--$59.12; -0.06; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/genz.html
After Hours: $59.12
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice 12 week base has formed with GENZ rallying the past two weeks as opposed to selling through support along with the rest of the market. It has faded back the past few sessions, holding the 18 day EMA (58.27) on the Friday low. Solid 5 to 3 accumulation in the base shows net buyers. Relative strength broke out late last week even as the stock faded some to form the handle. Expecting GENZ to hold here and then make the breakout move. Want to see the volume remains strong as it makes its move.
Volume: 3.358M Avg Volume: 2.204M
BUY POINT: $60.38 Volume=3.3M Target=$67.44 Stop=$58.62
POSITION: GZQ GL - July $60c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/genz.html
Play Date: 04/16/2005
AVL (Aviall--$29.18; +0.38; optionable): Distribution and supply of aviation parts to aerospace market.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume surged Friday as AVL posted a gain off the 18 day EMA (28.65) in the handle of its 10 week base. AVL exploded higher in late January on word of a $5B GE contract. During the subsequent market selling AVL has gone about its business, forming the current nice base using the key 50 day EMA (27.60) as support on the lows of the pattern. Strong money flow is leading higher, and relative strength is making the breakout once more ahead of the stock; that is a bullish indication for the stock as it will likely follow. Strong 3 to 1 accumulation in the base (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows the buyers have been there, accumulating shares and building the base. During the selling to end the week AVL dipped to the 18 day EMA on very low trade and then showed that upside price move Friday on very solid volume. Looks ready to make the breakout this week.
Volume: 446.1K Avg Volume: 266.136K
BUY POINT: $30.25 Volume=425K Target=$35 Stop=$28.79
POSITION: AVL IF - Sept. $30c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/avl.html
Play Date: 04/16/2005
HAE (Haemonetics--$41.86; -0.74; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hae.html
STATUS: Flat base. HAE is working through a 5 week flat base that has basically held the 18 day EMA (42.24) as the stock worked laterally and the 50 day EMA (41.18) rose up to meet it. Nice 2 to 0 accumulation in the base (2 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume) shows all buyers as it consolidates and sets up for the next breakout move that will send it to a new all-time high. Excellent lateral move as the market sold off shows the stock's strength, and leaves it in good position to lead when the selling dissipates. A good sector for a defensive market; frankly for any market as the stock was leading up to this point anyway. Sold a bit Friday, but that last shakeout will set up the breakout even better.
Volume: 188.6K Avg Volume: 256K
BUY POINT: $42.44 Volume=384K Target=$48.45 Stop=$41.05
POSITION: HAE IH - Sept. $40c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/hae.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, BLUD, BR, COH, HW, STN, TSRA
BLUD: Nice tight doji on the 50 day EMA. A bit of a shakeout from a strong stock in a good sector for this market. A break over 32 on above average volume is a clear buy signal.
BR: See downside play above.
HW: Materials stocks are suddenly out of favor as the prospect of a weaker economy takes its toll.
TSRA: More than a test of the 50 day EMA. That is a nasty gap lower.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Upside:
WSTL: Knifing lower through the 200 day SMA on the third day of its decline. A good move lower but for the next entry point it will need to come back and tap at the 200 day (5.65) and stall to set up the next downside move.
GTI: Big volume Friday as GTI fell from the 10 day EMA (5.39). Given that move it might be prudent to wait for a rebound to enter a play.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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