us stock market, stock watch

Begin Part 3 of 3

Best Plays, Part 3
1) IMNX: Looking for a 50 day MVA bounce.
2) MSCC: Broke resistance on rising volume.
3) AOT: Still holding support at the trendline, as volume declines.

Trading Play: Short term target only

ROIL (Remington Oil & Gas--$12.70; -0.82; optionable): Oil & Gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/roil.html
STATUS: In a rolling pattern that is ranging between 17 and 13, generally. The stock tapped a low of 12.58 on Friday and bounced back up, closing strongly, but then dropped back down on decreasing volume Monday (100,700; avg. 190,000). The lower volume points to a hold at the low, and if so, we will look for the roll back up in the pattern from here or that level. On a roll back up we will look at purchasing stock and/or options for the purpose of either selling those when and if the stock peaks at 17 and turns back down, or selling covered calls on those stock purchases. ROIL shows strong money flow.
BUY POINT: Over 13.60 (intraday high) on rising continued rising volume. Stop: 12.33 (below Friday's low).
POSITION: Stock and/or November $10 (RQF KB; 35 open interests).

CAT (Caterpillar--$46.12; +2.07; optionable): Manufacturing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cat.html
STATUS: Gapped higher on the open Monday after Friday's strong move, then headed up to a high of 47.41 before closing back down just below the 10 day MVA (46.22). The lower volume of 2.8 million (avg. 2.1 million) pulled the stock back down, so we will look for a surge to take it back up. If not, look for support at the 45 range until the stock can rally back. The 18 day MVA is at 47.87, the 200 day MVA, 48.28 (initial target).
BUY POINT: On a move back up from a pullback to the 45 range, in a strong rally.
POSITION: Stock and/or November $40 calls to buy (CAT KI).

IMNX (Immunex--$17.00; -0.59; optionable); Drugs - Biotech.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/imnx.html
STATUS: After Thursday's move up on huge volume (IMNX was added to the S&P 500 that day), the stock pulled back to a doji Friday, then Monday as volume fell back further (to 12.1 million; avg. 5.8 million) so did the stock, moving back through the 18 day MVA (17.15). We are looking for a hold at the 50 day MVA (16.64) on a volume surge in a rally. IMNX is deep in 14-month base; our initial target is the 200 day MVA at the 22 range.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: a move over 18 on continued strong volume. Stop: 17. Breakout: 18.74 on continued strong volume. Stop: 17.50.
POSITION: Both buy points: stock and/or December $15 calls to buy (IUU LC).

A group of stocks that are not necessarily in good patterns but in a rally can give stronger moves if the market gives us at least an oversold rally this week:

KLAC (Kla-Tencor--$34.39; +0.48; optionable): Semiconductor.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/klac.html
STATUS: Popped up to close with a doji on the slight gain as volume dropped back to 11.6 million (avg. 7.2 million). The low of 33.30 tapped near potential support (another low hit Thursday), so we look for a hold at least that that level for the upside move in a rally. Our target: Initially, 40. Above that, 42-43. The stock made a good bounce Friday, from a new September low at 30.46. Today's high was 35.49.
BUY POINT: From here: 35.50 (KLAC hit our previous buy point of 34.86), on rising volume in a rally. Stop: 32.50. On a bounce from the low: 31, on rising volume. Stop: 28.80
POSITION: Stock and/or December $30 calls to buy (KCQ LF). Deltas unavailable at the time of this writing.

EBAY (Ebay--$46.78; +2.99; optionable): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ebay.html
STATUS: Got a nice bounce but volume was lower at 8.9 million (avg. 6 million). We may get that move up to the 200 day MVA (50), so look at holding positions for the move up; if the market surges on strong volume, EBAY can even break back over the 200 day MVA. For now we will look for a continued move up to the 200 day; look for support at the 44 range (today's opening price was 43.99), or near Friday's low of 41.50.
We are looking for a recovery for EBAY, from the downtrend it's suffered since July.
BUY POINT: Aggressive only: Over the intraday high of 47.05 (43.80). We are holding positions here.
POSITION: Stock and/or November $40 calls to buy (QXB KH; 0 open interests), or January $40 calls to buy (QXB AH).

MSCC (Microsemi--$28.68; +3.16; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mscc.html
STATUS: MSCC did not test the 200 day MVA, instead the stock gapped above the 18 day MVA (26.85) then moved up to break resistance of the 50 day MVA (28.37), a nice move. Volume was supportive as well, rising to 1.7 million (avg. 894,000). This stock is performing as expected, so we continue to look for a run to the target at 35. If MSCC does pull back, support is likely at the 50 day MVA as long as the market doesn't start selling off. MSCC is off a June high of 36.62.
BUY POINT: From here: Over 29.60 on continued rising volume. Stop: 27.53. From the 50 day MVA: 28.70 on volume in the range of 1 million. Stop: 26.70
POSITION: Stock and/or November or December $25 calls to buy (QMS KE or LE).

INDEXES: They bounced, but on lower volume. We are looking for the possibility of a continued move up, but if on lower volume these will set up for potential downside plays.

SOX (Phili Semi--$401.98; +20.97; optionable):
STATUS: Bounced as expected. We are looking for the run up to potential initial resistance at 435.17; above that, the 10 day MVA (447.46), but if the market cannot rally on stronger volume, we may get a pullback instead. In that case potential support is at the opening price of 381.01, same price hit on Friday's close, or at the September low of 363.52. Otherwise, if the index continues to move up on decreasing volume, it will be set up for a move back down once it hits resistance.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 408 (over the intraday high of 407.50) in a chip rally on strong volume.
POSITION: October $400 calls to buy (SOY JT).

OEX (Standard & Poors--$513.03; +21.33; optionable):
STATUS: Another bounce from an index, and volume was lower, falling to 1.7 million (avg. 1.15 million). The OEX is close to upper resistance (the 10 day MVA at 529.48) and closer to our initial target of 526.80. Unless the market surges back in tomorrow with rising volume, the index is likely to drop back to test the 500 range, if it does not pull back to the September low at 480.07. Otherwise, any move up on decreasing volume will likely contribute to a move back down once the OEX hits the 10 day MVA; setting it up for downside plays. At that point upside positions can be closed.

DJX (1/100 Dj Indu--$86.04; +3.68; optionable):
STATUS: Bounced as well for a nice gain; volume was lower at 1.7 million (avg. 1.2 million). Our target (initial) is at the 10 day MVA (90.50 range), and the index may rally to that level even on lower volume. That move would be likely to fail, however, and at that point we can look at playing the index back down, closing positions once the DJX hits the resistance. Not getting in on new positions here, however.

CONTINUED PLAYS:

Semiconductors: Removed LSCC, which lost the rolling/trading range as of Tuesday. SMTL has sold off pretty hard since losing its pattern as of Monday; removed as well.

RFMD (Rf Micro--$20.70; +0.81; optionable): Integrated Circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rfmd.html
STATUS: Bounced slightly to close with another doji as volume dropped back to 11.85 million (avg. 8 million). RFMD can again test 20, but if it can hold that support level, we will continue to watch it for a strong move back up in a chip sector rally. Lower support is also at the July low of 18.65. Our target is 32.53, the August high.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 23, on continued strong volume. Stop: 21.39
POSITION: Stock and/or November $20 calls to buy (RFZ KD). Deltas unavailable at the time of this writing.

BREAKOUTS:

SZA (Suiza Foods--$61.11; +1.11; optionable): Food & Beverage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sza.html
STATUS: Continued higher as the stock gapped up on the opening price then ran to a high of 62.35. Volume was stronger at 1.15 million (avg. 316,000), so the failure to hold the high indicates possible topping action. Look for a pullback to the 59 range (10 day MVA, 58.49). SZA used the 50 day MVA (currently at 56.25) for this run up, just as it did in June-July and in August. Great money flow and buying. New target on a move over 62.35: 67
BUY POINT: On a move back up after a pullback to the 10 day MVA. Stop: 55.34
POSITION: Stock and/or November $55, 0 open interests, or December $55 calls to buy, 50 open interests (SZA KK or LK). Deltas unavailable at the time of this writing.

SZA pullback to the 10 day MVA
|mkttt|Pivot=59.50 Bounce from support Tgt vol=580K Tgt $=67 Stop=55.34

WEDGES, PENNANTS, and FLYING PLATEAUS (AND FLAGS): These are some of our favorite patterns as the moves can be explosive. In this market, however, we need to see the move on the breakout on strong volume.

None yet for this week.

BASING/TRADING RANGES:

PBG (Pepsi Bottling Group--$43.95; -0.95; optionable): Food & Beverage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pbg.html
STATUS: Pulled back down below the 10 and 18 day MVAs as volume decreased slightly, still strongly above average at 880,000 (avg. 565,000). Look for a test and bounce from the 50 day MVA (43.40). We are looking for a breakout from a 4-month cup base. Shows strong money flow, and high relative strength. September high is 45.90, and our target is 53-55.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 45.85, on rising volume. Stop: 44 (just below the 18 day MVA).
POSITION: Stock and/or December $45 calls to buy (PBG LI).

AOT (Apogent Tech--$23.25; +0.03; optionable): Health Services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aot.html
STATUS: Holding support at the level of Friday's doji, and volume dropped back to 461,500 (avg. 344,318). AOT is in a flat-type base with July and September lows in the pattern sitting on an up trendline that connects March, April, July and September lows. The stock sold back below the 50 day MVA last week, and is currently holding support at the trendline. Looking for a strong move back up after a hold here. Good buying. Target: 30.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 24 (just above the 50 day) on continued strong volume. Stop: 22.30 Breakout: 25.93, on continued strong volume (minimum breakout volume is 500,000). Stop: 24.
POSITION: Stock and/or January $22.50 calls to buy (AOT AX). Breakout: Stock and/or January $22.50 or $25 calls to buy (AOT AX). Deltas unavailable at the time of this writing.

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

us stock market
stock watch