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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: AYE; FTO; JOSB; MATR; STZ; VLO; USNA
New Leader Play:
Play Date: 04/19/2005
GTIV (Gentiva Health Services--$16.01; -0.13; no options): Medical practitioners
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gtiv.html
After Hours: $16.03
STATUS: Test breakout. GTIV has come back to test the 18 day EMA (17.27) and fill the gap from the early March breakout from a 12 month flat base. Solid 10 to 7 accumulation in the base (10 up price weeks on rising volume to 7 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buyers, setting up the breakout move. It made the break higher and this is the first test of that breakout, one of our favorite entry points. Tuesday it tapped the 18 day EMA on the low and rebounded to hold flat, but volume was stronger and above average. Looking for volume to continue as it moves back up and continues the breakout itself.
Volume: 96.383K Avg Volume: 198.029K
BUY POINT: $17.72 Volume=320K Target=$20.75 Stop=$17.05
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gtiv.html
New Downside Play:
Play Date: 04/19/2005
XLE (Spdr Energy Sector--$31.42; +0.32; optionable): Energy Sector Spyder
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xle.html
After Hours: $31.35
STATUS: Put. XLE made a higher low in early April on low volume and then dove through the 50 day EMA (41.58) on the strongest volume in, well, ever. It dove Friday on tremendous volume and then made a rebound with the market Monday and Tuesday. Volume was lower but still above average. Tuesday XLE tapped at the 50 day EMA on the intraday high and faded back slightly. Money flow is diving, and after this test higher to the 50 day we are looking for XLE to roll back over and move back down toward the recent low at $39.41. A move to that level gets us a 38%ish gain.
Volume: 2.204M Avg Volume: 1.859M
BUY POINT: $41.19 Volume=2M Target=$39.84 Stop=$41.64
POSITION: XLE RP - June $42p (-61 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xle.html
Continuing Leader Play:
Play Date: 04/14/2005
HYTM (Hythiam--$8.25; 0.00; no options): Specialized health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hytm.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Still waiting for HYTM to make the move. It continues to hold over the 18 day EMA (8.11), moving laterally in a very tight range. Just waiting for it to make the break higher and follow the money flow. To recap: Volume surged the past week as HYTM makes a higher low at the 18 day EMA in its 7 week base that has formed using the 50 day EMA as support. A higher low in these patterns often indicates a breakout ahead. Excellent 3 to 0 accumulation in the base shows all buyers (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume). Money flow is surging higher ahead of price and with volume working for it as well, it is ready. A breakout sends it to an all-time high for this 15 month old stock.
Volume: 118.098K Avg Volume: 112.772K
BUY POINT: $8.55 Volume=155K Target=$10.25 Stop=$8
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hytm.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all positions but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
AHC: Forecast 4-26-05
AMHC: Researching date.
APPX: New information: Forecast 5-4-05
BOL: Forecast 4-19-05 before the open. No split but blasted off on the earnings.
CI: Forecast 5-4-05
CNMD: Forecast 5-17-05
CTSH: New information. Forecast 4-27-05. Trying to rebound after the tank lower last week
CVH: Tentatively forecast 5-3-05 before the open.
DGX: Forecast 4-21-05.
DIOD: Forecast 4-28-05
DVA: Forecast 5-18-05.
ESRX: Forecast 4-26-05.
FO: Forecast 4-22-05
GOOG: Forecast 4-21-05. Exploded higher after hours on the YHOO news to 199. Looking for a test of that move to give us an entry after the breakout that is to come.
GPN: No split announced 3-21-05. Game back from the test of 62, showing strong volume as it made its rebound.
GYI: Forecast 4-20-05 after the close. Looking to see if GUY will give us a move up through the 50 day EMA tomorrow on some volume. Sold off ahead of the report so it has some room to move higher.
JAH: Forecast 4-28-05. Managing to hold the 50 day EMA and rebounding off that level Tuesday.
KSWS: Forecast 4-28-05. Picking back up, moving back over the 50 day EMA.
OMC: Forecast 4-26-05 in conjunction with earnings or 5-24-05 with a board meeting.
ORLY: Forecast 4-26-05. Not much of a rebound after the Friday dump lower.
PFCB: Forecast 4-27-05
SHLD: Forecast 4-21-05. Held the 18 day EMA and is now rebounding. Looks ready to run back up.
SIE: Forecast 4-25-05. Good move off of those dojis, recovering the 50 day EMA on rising, above average volume.
UNH: Forecast 5-12-05 with a board meeting. Undercut the 50 day but recovered it in one session.
VLO: Forecast 4-27-05.
XRAY: Forecast 4-25-05 after the close.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays: These are in the right sectors for the current market.
Play Date: 04/19/2005
GPRO (Gen Probe--$45.72; -1.50; optionable): Probe-based diagnostic products. Forecast to announce 5-4-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 9-5-03 at $59.50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gpro.html
After Hours: $45.90
STATUS: Cup w/handle. GPRO is making the breakout from a short but sweet 7 week base, ready to break to a new all-time high. Volume has started higher the past week as it came back to test the 50 day EMA (47.80) in the base. It tapped that level Monday and rebounded on rising volume. Tuesday even better volume as it moved over the recent highs. Relative strength broke out, a good confirmation of the move. Positive accumulation and solid money flow. Looking to move in as it continues the breakout move.
Volume: 437.83K Avg Volume: 724.09K
BUY POINT: $51.38 Volume=1.1M Target=$59 Stop=$49.05
POSITION: PSU HJ - Aug. $50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gpro.html
Play Date: 04/19/2005
YUM (Yum! Brands--$46.82; -0.36; optionable): KFC, Pizza Hut, etc. Forecast to announce a split in early May.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 5-7-02 at $63.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/yum.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. After a nice breakout in late February from a 10 week base YUM rallied to 54. It has come back the past 3 weeks to test that move, landing at the 50 day EMA (49.90). It has moved laterally at that level the past week, holding that support as the market sold off. Looking for it to move over the 18 day EMA (50.80) on strong volume to start a position in this leader.
Volume: 1.167M Avg Volume: 1.254M
BUY POINT: $50.92 Volume=1.9M Target=$57 Stop=$49.78
POSITION: YUM GJ - July $50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/yum.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Buy not yet hit:
Play Date: 04/12/2005
AMHC (American Healthways--$35.75; +0.73; optionable): Specialized health services. Just announced earnings in March. Researching to pinpoint date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 11-19-03 at $41.20. Prior to that a it announced a 3:2 split on 10-29-01 at $38.50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amhc.html
After Hours: $35.74
STATUS: Test breakout. Got a bit wild Monday, trying to make the next move higher but faded into the close. Tuesday was a much steadier move though volume fell back below average. Still set up beautifully for the next move. To recap: AMHC blasted higher to start the month, surging on strong volume out of an 18 week trading range between 30 and 35. AMHC formed the base along the 50 day EMA (33.83) as the big money stepped in to support the stock and accumulate shares at that point. Strong 6 to 3 accumulation in the base (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume) set up the breakout, showing plenty of buyers as the stock consolidated. Nice lower volume test is setting up the next move. Excellent money flow is leading higher and relative strength broke out on the recent move, a good corroboration of the price breakout. Nice pullback has set up the continued breakout run.
Volume: 408.556K Avg Volume: 489.954K
BUY POINT: $36.62 Volume=713K Target=$42.55 Stop=$35.22
POSITION: QMH HG - Aug. $35c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amhc.html
Play Date: 04/16/2005
FO (Fortune Brands--$85.66; -0.29; optionable): Consumer products. Forecast to announce a split 4-22-05
BACKGROUND: No splits in FO's history.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fo.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Tested all the way to the 18 day EMA (84.95) Tuesday and then rebounded for a modest loss on continued above average volume. That looks to be the final shakeout on this test. Watching for volume to continue as it moves higher from here. To recap: Volume surged the past two weeks as FO made the breakout from its 9 week double bottom base that formed using the key 50 day EMA (83.00) as support. That is where institutions will step in to buy their stocks if they still want to accumulate shares. FO shows solid 4 to 2 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) in the pattern; the institutions are indeed still buying it. After the breakout FO has held solid in the market selling. Strong money flow is leading higher and relative strength is breaking out again even as FO makes this modest pullback. Solid action.
Volume: 782.6K Avg Volume: 620.136K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 86.38; Next: $87.55 Volume=908K Target=$99 Stop=$85.65
POSITION: FO IQ - Sept. $85c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fo.html
Play Date: 04/12/2005
PFCB (PF Changs--$59.72; +1.32; optionable): Restaurants. Forecast to announce a split 4-27-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 4-3-02 at $64.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfcb.html
STATUS: Breakout test. PFCB went ahead and fully tested the 50 day EMA (58) in the market selling. It held and then rebounded Tuesday on strong volume. Looks ready for a buy if this move can keep up. To recap: PFCB broke higher to start the month, gapping higher off the 50 day EMA and rallying to 62. It has now tested the move, holding support at the 50 day EMA. Strong 4 to 2 accumulation in the pattern set up the breakout. Money flow is strong and relative strength broke out as well. It used the recent pullback to test its breakout and now is ready to continue the move.
Volume: 572.484K Avg Volume: 397.954K
BUY POINT: New: $59.89 (orig. $58.88) Volume=582K Target=$67.45 Stop=$57.64
POSITION: HUO GL - July $60c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pfcb.html
New Buy Points on Current Plays:
We often like to add to current positions on strong, leadership stocks when the opportunity arises. There is nothing like a proven winner.
Play Date: 03/29/2005
APPX (American Pharmaceutical--$56.7; +0.68; optionable): Drugs. Forecast to announce a split 5-4-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 3-4-02 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $52. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/appx.html
After Hours: $56.90
STATUS: Breakout test. Tried to make the move Tuesday as volume was up to average, but it gave back much of the move. Looking for a continued run higher on solid volume. To recap: APPX has come back to test the early April break higher from its 11 week ascending triangle base. The base formed above the 50 day EMA (51.57), a key support level. Strong money flow and relative strength ready for the next breakout.
Volume: 810.099K Avg Volume: 606.272K
BUY POINT: New positions: $56.89 (orig. positions: $54.91) Volume=975K Target=$62.45 Stop=$54.38
POSITION: AQO GK - July $55c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/appx.html
Play Date: 04/05/2005
ESRX (Express Scripts--$87.56; +2.16; optionable): Mail order prescription plans. Forecast 4-26-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split in February 2001 at $88.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
After Hours: $87.55
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. After testing the 18 day EMA (85.53) ESRX surged higher Tuesday with the market, but volume lagged, coming in well below average. Very good looking here in its 6 week lateral move and just needs some more volume as it continues higher. To recap: ESRX has formed a short, neat 6 week base that is working to consolidate the strong gap higher in early March on a very strong earnings report and outlook. This sideways base is working to set up the next buy point. Money flow remains strong and is leading higher ahead of the stock. Looking for the price and volume to follow it higher and give us another good entry point.
Volume: 742.743K Avg Volume: 845.863K
BUY POINT: Breakout: $87.81 Volume=1.2M Target=$94 Stop=$84.38
POSITION: XTQ HQ - Aug. $85c (62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/esrx.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/14/2005
HSY (Hershey Foods--$61.89; +0.89; optionable): Chocolate
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hsy.html
STATUS: Cup. HSY sold back in the market selling, but unlike many stocks it held its pattern, testing the 50 day EMA (60.58) once more on the Monday low and rebounding. Volume jumped back up toward average Tuesday as it moved up off this important support level. Relative strength broke out ahead of the stock, and we are looking for the stock to follow.
Volume: 829.8K Avg Volume: 912.59K
BUY POINT: $62.45 Volume=1.1M Target=$69.95 Stop=$61.44
POSITION: HSY HL - Aug. $60c (80 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hsy.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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