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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: AVL; MSCC; SMRT; UTHR; AYE
Monday night play results:
AYE: Nice continued move higher off the 50 day EMA.
ENDP: Gapped higher but then faded as volume was not there.
INFA: Started higher on good volume and still a buy on this move.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/19/2005
CVS (CVS Corp.--$42.28; -0.94; optionable): Drug stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvs.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. After a strong break higher in early March CVS has put together a 7 week lateral consolidation, coming back to test the 50 day EMA (51.08) and filling the early March gap higher. Accumulation is a solid 3 to 0 in the pattern (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume), showing accumulation as the stock moves laterally and sets up the next break higher. Gapped lower Tuesday, tapped the 50 day EMA and shot higher on the best volume in two weeks. Money flow has turned higher and CVS looks ready to follow it higher. Relative strength broke out on the move, another very bullish sign for the next break higher.
Volume: 1.468M Avg Volume: 1.606M
BUY POINT: $52.95 Volume=2M Target=$58 Stop=$51.08
POSITION: CVS HJ - Aug. $50c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cvs.html
Play Date: 04/19/2005
QGEN (Qiagen--$13.36; +0.34; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qgen.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. QGEN is making the first test of the breakout break out move from a nicely formed 15 month base. The breakout occurred in early March. During the recent selling QGEN faded to the 18 day EMA (12.77), held that support, and then shot higher Tuesday on a very strong shot of above average volume. Excellent money flow is leading the stock higher. Accumulation is a solid 14 to 10 (14 up price weeks on rising volume to 10 down price weeks on rising volume), setting up the breakout. Ready to step in as QGEN continues the move up off the 18 day EMA and the solid test of the breakout.
Volume: 697K Avg Volume: 340K
BUY POINT: $13.55 Volume=500K Target=$16 Stop=$12.87
POSITION: QXE HV - Aug. $12.50c (96 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/qgen.html
Downside:
Play Date: 04/19/2005
SBUX (Starbucks--$46.22; -0.78; optionable): High priced coffee
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sbux.html
After Hours: $46.35
STATUS: Put. SBUX was a nice winner for us for a long time, but it peaked in late December. It fell to the 200 day SMA (51.07), tried to hold that level, but that failed. It is now moving down the 10 day EMA (48), having failed to move pat that level following a week long lateral move. Tuesday it turned lower as the market rallied. Looking to step in on further downside. A move to the target brings us a 38%ish gain.
Volume: 4.573M Avg Volume: 4.156M
BUY POINT: $46.05 Volume=4.5M Target=$44 Stop=$46.72
POSITION: SQX RT - June $47.50p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/sbux.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, BLUD, BR, COH, HW, STN, TSRA
BLUD: Nice move off the 50 day EMA as it continues in its 11 week trading range. Breakout is over 32.
HW: Trying to recover with a move back over the 200 day SMA, but no volume. Weak sector now.
TSRA: Trying to rebound up to the 50 day EMA, but under a lot of pressure. We will see if INTC's comments about chip equipment will help.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Upside:
SVU: Huge volume as SVU reported earnings and traded in a very wide range. Decent 18 week base, but earnings did not help it.
JNPR: In a steady downtrend since a double top in November and December, JNPR is rallying up to test the 50 day EMA once more. This time, however, volume is much stronger, and it may try a breakout and run toward the 200 day SMA near 24. It will have to show the break through the 50 day EMA, however, given the downtrend.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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