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trade stock, stock ticker
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: AYE; INFA; NUVA; EMR
Thursday night play results:
HANS: Slid a bit lower on lower, below average volume.
CRYP: Held the 18 day EMA as it continues to prepare for the next break higher.
NUVA: Big breakout on strong volume.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/23/2005
BOOM (Dynamic Materials--$27.14; -1.65; no options): Explosive metalworking (e.g. cladding)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/boom.html
After Hours: $27.40
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. BOOM enjoyed an explosive breakout and run in March, moving out of a 13 week cup with handle base. It rallied from 15 to 37 on a great breakout and run, and now it is testing that move, giving back just over 50% of the move, a typical pullback on such a strong rally. It undercut that support (25.87) two weeks back, but immediately rebounded on a return to strong, above average volume. It has worked laterally the last three sessions, holding the 50 day as it does and moving just below the 18 day EMA (28.52). Looking for a strong volume move over the 18 day EMA on strong trade to move in.
Volume: 2.878M Avg Volume: 2.245M
BUY POINT: $28.78 Volume=3.2M Target=$35 Stop=$26.77
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/boom.html
Play Date: 04/23/2005
GME (Gamestop--$23.65; -0.27; optionable): Retailer of computer game and PC entertainment software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gme.html
STATUS: Breakout test. GME is back on. It formed a 21 week reverse head and shoulders base sporting excellent 7 to 3 accumulation (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume). There were plenty of buyers during the base, setting up the breakout. It made the breakout 5 sessions back when it announced the acquisition of ELBO. After that big move it has eased back in a narrow range the past four sessions, holding the breakout over the March closing high (23.42). Being stingy with a gain is a very good sign of strength and will likely yield a bounce from here before going much lower. Super money flow and a relative strength breakout; it has a lot going for it. Looking for a break higher from here on the same strong volume seen Friday as GME held steady.
Volume: 1.306M Avg Volume: 488.727K
BUY POINT: $24.15 Volume=1.2M Target=$28 Stop=$22.92
POSITION: GME JX - Oct. $22.50c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/gme.html
Downside:
Play Date: 04/23/2005
BLL (Ball Corp.--$40.27; -0.21; optionable): Packaging and containers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bll.html
STATUS: Put. A strong run from 2001 to March 2005 is running into trouble. BLL fell through the 200 day SMA (40.59), a key support level where institutions step in to buy or sell, in early April. It rebounded last week to test that move, tapping that level Thursday and Friday on much lower, below average volume. The lack of volume on the attempted break through that level show few buyers stepping up to drive it back through what is now resistance. Friday BLL showed a tight doji below the 200 day; after a low volume test of a breakdown through that level, that doji often indicates another fall is coming. A move to the target lands us a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 497.7K Avg Volume: 585.181K
BUY POINT: $40.05 Volume=700K Target=$38.29 Stop=$40.64
POSITION: BLL RH - June $40p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/bll.html
Play Date: 04/23/2005
ETN (Eaton Corp.--$60.31; -0.35; optionable): Auto parts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/etn.html
STATUS: Put. ETN enjoyed a strong late 2004 run with the market, but it too peaked. It tried to form a reverse head and shoulders base, even attempted the breakout, but failed. It started the current downtrend, breached the 200 day SMA (65.50), and then really imploded on the GM troubles 7 sessions back. It has struggled back up, but on lower volume. Moreover, it could only make the 10 day EMA (60.64). If it fails here, that is a sign of real weakness. Friday the stock showed a doji below the 10 day EMA on the candlestick chart. After a run higher on lower and lower volume, that indicates the bounce is out of gas. Looking for it to turn back over and fall back to the prior lows. A move to the target lands us a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 1.548M Avg Volume: 1.191M
BUY POINT: $60.08 Volume=1.5M Target=$57.83 Stop=$60.75
POSITION: ETN RL - June $60p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/etn.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, BLUD, BR, COH, HW, STN, TSRA
Roughed up to say the least. Need some new suggestions to rebuild the group.
AAPL: after testing the breakdown, it has been unable to clear the 10 day EMA. Looks ready to roll back over.
COH: Ready to head to the 200 day SMA (24.62) once more.
STN: Still trying to hold the 50 day EMA. Quite a struggle the past week.
TSRA: The 200 day SMA is all that stopped its massive tank lower.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Upside:
MTX: Chemicals. Trying to build a 5 month reverse head and shoulders base and make the breakout. Formed using the 50 day EMA as support.
Downside:
COG: Double topped in March and April and fell through the 50 day EMA two weeks back. A very low volume, week rebound to the 10 day EMA last week shows it has little support on the upside rebound.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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