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us stock market, trading system
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: AYE; BCR; GOOG; MCK
New Pre-Split Play:
Play Date: 04/23/2005
SWN (Southwestern Energy--$59.99; -1.01; optionable): Gas utilities. Splits 2:1 on a date to be announced
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/swn.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. SWN came right back, rebounding from a drop through the 50 day EMA (57.10) a week back. That move actually formed the right shoulder to an 8 week accumulation base sporting 2 to 0 accumulation (2 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume), setting up a breakout to come. It has other good characteristics such as using the 50 day EMA (57.10) as support for the base, and relative strength breaking out ahead of the stock. Took a breather Friday, and may take another day or so to set up, but it is getting ready for the break higher.
Volume: 489.6K Avg Volume: 572K
BUY POINT: $60.75 Volume=650K Target=$65 Stop=$58.35
POSITION: SWN FL - June $60c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/swn.html
New Post-Split Plays:
A new buy point on a current play:
Play Date: 04/02/2005
BCR (C.R. Bard--$70.49; +2.02; optionable): Medical instruments and supplies.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. BCR finally got the volume Friday after it announced solid results and a dividend. That sent the stock higher on stronger volume, breaking it out of its 11 week base that formed using the 50 day EMA as support (67.80). Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout shows its strength. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) has set the stage for this move. Looking to pick up more shares on a continued breakout move.
Volume: 844.1K Avg Volume: 570.045K
BUY POINT: New positions: $70.68 (orig. positions $69.45) Volume=882K Target=$77 Stop=$69.05
POSITION: BCR GM - July $65c (76 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcr.html
Play Date: 04/23/2005
HSY (Hershey Foods--$63.19; +2.37; optionable): Food & beverages (candies)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hsy.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Taking another look at HSY. It has moved along the 50 day EMA (60.67) the past 5 weeks as part of an 8 week double bottom with handle after the solid run from January to March. It dipped below the 50 day Wednesday, and when it closed below that level we put it on hold. Friday it reported great results and blasted higher to 64.95. It spent much of the session fading back, however, giving back almost half the move as the market sold off in the afternoon. That leaves an opening to move in as HSY starts its next run. Seems boring, but HSY split last June and has been running. This pullback is a good test, holding the breakout over the mid-April high (62.69). Expecting a bit more of a test of that high and then a resumption of the move.
Volume: 2.253M Avg Volume: 968.394K
BUY POINT: $63.35 Volume=1.1M Target=$70.55 Stop=$61.97
POSITION: HSY HL - Aug. $60c (80 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hsy.html
Play Date: 04/23/2005
MCRS (Micros System--$36.56; -1.31; optionable): Technical and system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mcrs.html
After Hours: $36.49
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Split in early February as it was starting the formation of the current 16 week base. Big move up to end March and then the current pullback on low volume is textbook action. The pullback forms the handle where the last sellers are shaken out. Positive accumulation in the pattern is setting up the breakout. Money flow is strong and leading higher. Looks super, and just waiting for the break higher to move into the play.
Volume: 262.61K Avg Volume: 312.444K
BUY POINT: $38.04 Volume=469K Target=$44 Stop=$37.11
POSITION: MFK IU - Sept. $37.50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mcrs.html
New Downside Plays:
Play Date: 04/23/2005
JCI (Johnson Controls--$54.86; -0.89; optionable): Auto controllers (car brains)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jci.html
STATUS: Put. The auto industry is suffering and you can look at JCI's pattern and see the problem. A strong run to end last year (ran with the market), JCI peaked and has slid lower in a downtrend since, using the 10 and 18 day EMA (54.90, 55.15) as resistance on most rebounds and the 50 day EMA (56.54) as a periodic higher test. This past week it made its test, gapping higher as the company raised its guidance. That did not break the downtrend, however, and it is coming back now on rising volume. Looking for a further run lower to enter the play. Looking for a move back down to the prior low and landing a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 2.122M Avg Volume: 935K
BUY POINT: $54.75 Volume=950K Target=$52.72 Stop=$55.21
POSITION: JCU RK - June $55p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jci.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all positions but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
AHC: Forecast 4-26-05
AMHC: Researching date. Nice move continues.
APPX: Forecast 5-4-05
CHTT: Researching the date.
CI: Forecast 5-4-05
CNMD: Forecast 5-17-05
CTSH: New information. Forecast 4-27-05. Still not showing any upside after the tank lower.
CVH: Tentatively forecast 5-3-05 before the open.
DADE: Forecast 4-28-05 after the close or 5-23-05.
DGX: Forecast 4-21-05. Moving laterally at the 18 day EMA on low volume.
DIOD: Forecast 4-28-05
DVA: Forecast 5-18-05.
ESRX: Forecast 4-26-05.
FO: Forecast 4-22-05. No split announcement but a good move on the earnings.
GOOG: Forecast 4-21-05. No split yet but a strong move on the earnings.
GPN: Researching new date.
GPRO: Forecast 5-4-05
JAH: Forecast 4-28-05. Needs to show us a bounce off the 50 day EMA on volume.
KSWS: Forecast 4-28-05.
OMC: Forecast 4-26-05 in conjunction with earnings or 5-24-05 with a board meeting.
ORLY: Forecast 4-26-05
PFCB: Forecast 4-27-05
SIE: Forecast 4-25-05. Still trying to get through the 50 day EMA.
UNH: Forecast 5-12-05 with a board meeting.
VLO: Forecast 4-27-05
XRAY: Forecast 4-25-05 after the close.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays: These are in the right sectors for the current market.
Play Date: 04/23/2005
DIOD (Diodes--$26.88; -0.15; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits. Forecast to announce a split 4-28-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Last split its stock 3:2 on 11-26-03 at 28.50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/diod.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After getting a bit rocky on us at the 50 day EMA (25.87) recently, DIOD rallied right back and continued forming the handle to the 6 month base. Strong 6 to 3 accumulation in the base (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buyers in the pattern. Holding over the 50 day EMA (25.87) as it works on the handle. Strong money flow is leading higher. Need to be patient and let it show us the move this week as it moves into earnings.
Volume: 210.824K Avg Volume: 134.454K
BUY POINT: $27.48 Volume=214K Target=$33.35 Stop=$26
POSITION: DUH IE - Sept. $25c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/diod.html
Play Date: 04/23/2005
NMGA (Neiman Marcus Group--$94.34; -0.32; optionable): High end department stores. Forecast in early June.
BACKGROUND: NMGA has never announced a split. It is trading at an all-time high, and setting up for a further move.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nmga.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. NMGA has enjoyed a major run, and it broke out again in March with some stellar earnings. It continued higher to 95 on the run, and now it is moving laterally in a tight, narrow range, holding the 10 day EMA (93.59) as volume backs off. It is refusing to give back its gains in a selling market, a very good indication. Looking for a volume break higher to move in, grab a nice gain, take some profit, and let the rest run for us. Might not last until the forecast split date, but we will be happy to make some good gain in the interim.
Volume: 546.5K Avg Volume: 472.636K
BUY POINT: $95.12 Volume=709K Target=$105 Stop=$93.47
POSITION: NMG GS - July $95c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nmga.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Buy not yet hit:
Play Date: 04/23/2005
CVH (Coventry Health Care--$66.78; +0.75; optionable): Health care plans. Forecast to announce a split 5-3-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split 12-23-03 at $63.30.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvh.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. After a strong run up the 18 day EMA (67.20) following a late January breakout, CVH is making on of the periodic tests of the 50 day EMA (64.68) that a stock on a strong run makes. It bounces 4 to 5 times up the 18 day and then takes a deeper rest before starting back up. As the market sold Friday, volume edged higher as CVH started off the 50 day EMA. It cleared the 18 day EMA intraday, but could not hold the move. Still, it looks supper and just waiting for more volume as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 731.5K Avg Volume: 1.041M
BUY POINT: $67.32 Volume=1.2M Target=$75 Stop=$65.05
POSITION: CVH GM - July $65c (62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cvh.html
Play Date: 04/21/2005
DADE (Dade Behring Holdings--$59.30; -0.17; optionable): Diagnostic substances. Forecast to announce a split 4-28-05 after the close or 5-23-05 in conjunction with a shareholder meeting where additional shares will be authorized.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dade.html
After Hours: $59.36
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. DADE jumped again Friday but volume fell off the table and it could not hold the move. Still very solid in its pattern, and it is ready to break higher and follow the strong money flow. To recap: A very low profile double bottom; you could call it a cup still forming, but the pattern is there. Strong volume Thursday as DADE jumped to 60.50, but it could not hold the move. A nice 7 week pattern following the mid-February breakout. Money flow is moving higher ahead of price. It is set up to make the move. Just want to see it clear the 50 day SMA (60.17) on some continued strong volume.
Volume: 83.621K Avg Volume: 214.5K
BUY POINT: $60.25 Volume=319K Target=$66.45 Stop=$58.89
POSITION: JDQ HL - Aug. $60c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dade.html
Play Date: 04/12/2005
PFCB (PF Changs--$59.15; -0.09; optionable): Restaurants. Forecast to announce a split 4-27-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 4-3-02 at $64.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfcb.html
After Hours: $59.05
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice test of the 50 day EMA (57.73) continues as volume jumped back above average Friday. It has shown some good volume spikes off the 50 day the past week, and that is telling us to get ready. To recap: PFCB broke higher to start the month, gapping higher off the 50 day EMA and rallying to 62. It has now tested the move, holding support at the 50 day EMA. Strong 4 to 2 accumulation in the pattern set up the breakout. Money flow is strong and relative strength broke out as well. It used the recent pullback to test its breakout and now is ready to continue the move.
Volume: 576.642K Avg Volume: 399.59K
BUY POINT: New: $59.89 (orig. $58.88) Volume=582K Target=$67.45 Stop=$57.64
POSITION: HUO GL - July $60c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pfcb.html
New Buy Points on Current Plays:
We often like to add to current positions on strong, leadership stocks when the opportunity arises. There is nothing like a proven winner.
Play Date: 03/29/2005
APPX (American Pharmaceutical--$55.56; -0.79; optionable): Drugs. Forecast to announce a split 5-4-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 3-4-02 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $52. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/appx.html
After Hours: $55.50
STATUS: Breakout test. We are being patient with APPX, letting it set up for the next break higher. Nice tight range over the 18 day EMA on lower volume. To recap: APPX has come back to test the early April break higher from its 11 week ascending triangle base. The base formed above the 50 day EMA (52.05), a key support level. Strong money flow and relative strength ready for the next breakout.
Volume: 392.273K Avg Volume: 588.09K
BUY POINT: New positions: $56.89 (orig. positions: $54.91) Volume=975K Target=$62.45 Stop=$54.38
POSITION: AQO GK - July $55c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/appx.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/21/2005
STZ (Constellation Brands--$55.95; -0.63; optionable): Wineries and distilleries. Splits 2:1 on 5-16-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stz.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Testing back to the 18 day EMA (55.79) Friday on lower though still above average volume. It is testing the big gap higher two weeks back, filling most of the gap. The breakout took it out of a 6 week base. Being patient and letting it complete the test and show us the rebound move on strong trade. A strong leader.
Volume: 1.028M Avg Volume: 680.5K
BUY POINT: $56.95 Volume=1M Target=$63.75 Stop=$55.65
POSITION: STZ GK - July $55c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/stz.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
trading system
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