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yahoo stock, trade stock
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information.
New note for reading plays: A "prior high" refers to the high at the start of a base.
BEST PLAYS: VRSN made the move we wanted, breaking resistance, and PSSI broke out over Monday's high as volume roared higher! ROST made a great move over its short term MVAs today, after holding support at the 50 day as noted in last night's report. It looks ready to run up to the September high at 31. CTEC is topping out after showing a doji subsequent to the breakout; watch positions as it can now pull back to the 10 day MVA (14.37). Still like IMCL; it continues to hold above support with its second consecutive doji as volume drops off. VGR continues to look good, too (see below).
Stocks/Indexes from Monday's report:
HSIC: Dropped back to test the 50 day MVA; volume was huge.
PRHC: Pulled back on rising volume; a disappointing show after yesterday's strength.
DAP: Inched higher, but volume held it back (dropping below average).
VRSN: Made the desired move, breaking the 18 day MVA resistance.
Previous plays:
VGR: A small move up but on much lower volume. Holding support at the 18 day MVA and looks good.
MOVI: Holding steady above support (18 day MVA) as volume continues to decrease.
ITRI: Holding at 20 on a sharp drop in volume.
DP: Nice move up today (from the 10 day MVA) but volume was much lower and below average.
NVAX: Made a strong move and broke resistance of its 50 day MVA on good volume. Pulled back from higher resistance at the 18 day MVA.
MCO: Holding at the 50 day MVA as volume drops lower in the forming ascending wedge pattern (buy point 35.33).
GIS: Looks good; rising volume moved it off the 50 day MVA but the stock did close just under its 18 day MVA.
SMTC: Holding above the 200 day MVA.
SLNK: Another hold at support, this stock at its 50 day MVA.
AHP: Moved higher today, closing just under resistance. May drop back down if the market does the same.
Best Plays: We like them all tonight.
1) AHMH: Moving into breakout mode.
2) AJG: Looking for a strong move up in the handle after a bounce from support.
3) BLL: A solid move from support!
4) QQQ: Looking for a put play now.
5) DGX: Ditto.
New:
AHMH (American Home Mtg--$17.10; +1.95; no options): REIT: Mortgage Investment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ahmh.html
STATUS: Made a strong move off the 50 day MVA (14.71) on rising volume of 215,100 (avg. 229,000). The stock is in a flat base/pennant pattern with lower support at the moving average, and on this move looks ready to make a breakout. Pattern high is at the August top of 18.90, but stronger resistance is at 18, a price hit three times in the upper ranges of the pattern. Volume really fell off nicely over the last three days, shrinking to very low levels by Monday ahead of today's surge. AHMH shows good money flow, and relative strength is breaking out ahead of price, which is a bullish indicator. Target: 21-22
BUY POINT: Breakout: 18.13, on minimum breakout volume of 309,000. Stop: 16.50, just under resistance at 17, which the stock broke today (we like that).
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ahmh.html
AJG (Arthur J. Gallagher--$30.98; +0.48; optionable (AJG): Insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ajg.html
STATUS: In a 9-month cup with handle base. The stock has pulled back from this month's high (33) on overall decreasing volume, which still remains well above average Tuesday at 809,200 (avg. 354,000). AJG found support and moved up for a small gain today, but we may see a move down to support at the 10 day MVA (30.03) before getting a strong move back up toward a breakout. That is what we are looking for; early highs in the base are at the 34 level. AJG shows super money flow and buying. Target: 38-40
BUY POINT: 33.13, on minimum breakout volume of 531,000. Stop: 30.90 (just under support at 31).
POSITION: Stock and/or January $30 calls to buy (AJG AF).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ajg.html
Update:
BLL (Ball Corp--$55.84; +1.44; optionable (BLL): Consumer Non-durables
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bll.html
STATUS: Made a good move from support Tuesday (the 18 day MVA at 54.34) on good volume. The stock broke out from an ascending wedge in late August, a breakout which soon settled into a tight lateral test. From there BLL broke out even more strongly, running to this month's high at 58.35. It pulled back on overall decreasing but still strong volume from that high (reached at the first of the month), tested Friday near the 50 day MVA, then headed back up. Today's move was on excellent volume (566,500; avg. 186,045), and we are looking for another strong move from here. Aggressive positions can be taken on a move over the intraday high (56). Strong money flow and high relative strength. Target: initial, 59
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 56.15 on continued rising volume. Stop: 53.84 (just under the 18 day MVA, 54.34).
POSITION: Stock and/or November $50 calls to buy (BLL KJ).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/bll.html
Index:
QQQ (Nasdaq 100--$29.70; +0.09; optionable (QQQ):
STATUS: The index closed with a doji at the top of its 3-day run, with volume decreasing over the last 2 sessions, down Tuesday to 83.8 million (avg. 66 million). That is still very high volume, but we are looking for a move back down in a market pullback, and with the QQQ, are looking at the September low of 27 as a target. We think this will just be a test. The index may try to rally higher in the morning (the 10 day MVA is at 30.97), but on a failure to take out resistance at the 30 level or the 10 day (if it makes it up that far), possible puts.
BUY POINT: 29.60 in market selling (on a move down from here). On a fall from the 10 day MVA, buy point is below 30.50.
POSITION: October $34 puts to buy (QAV VH).
THE PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that look ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS: Upon confirmation of last week's reversal, we will be picking the best of the newest leading stocks for infusion into the portfolio.
New Leaders: ESRX, ACS, NVDA, DGX, FRX
Previous Leaders in which we are still interested: VRSN
ACS: Fell on news of plans to sell shares; may try to rally to 80 (50 day MVA) but watch for downside if it can't take that out. Support possible at the 75-76.
FRX: A lower volume move up to the 10 day MVA after breaking back through the 200 day (67.45). If it drops back, it may find support there or at 65 on a break of the MVA.
ESRX: Made it back over the 200 day MVA as volume rose. It closed on its 10 day MVA; the 18 day MVA is at 50.
A put play:
DGX (Quest Diagnostics--$54.25; +3.25; optionable (DGX): Health Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dgx.html
STATUS: From its September low of 48.10, DGX ran up the last 2 days but on decreasing volume (1.04 million; avg. 573,227). It may be able to run to the 10 day MVA (55.79), but if it cannot take out that potential resistance, we are looking for a move back down to 50 for an initial target.
BUY POINT: 55, on rising volume in a selling market. Stop: 58.67 (200 day MVA).
POSITION: October $60 puts to buy (DGX VL).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/dgx.html
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: THQI, KG. Upon confirmation of last week's reversal, we will be picking the best of the stronger, rising stocks for infusion into the portfolio. Needless to say, this bunch was pummeled by this market.
THQI: Closed at the 200 day on lower volume.
KG: Gapped higher again and made it over the 18 day MVA but closed back down just under it. Volume was lower on the move. May hold at the 10 day MVA (40 range), or lower at 38.
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: New portfolio as selected by the subscribers. Some of these stocks are still struggling to move higher in their bases, and will likely continue to trade in close ranges just like the market. We'll be ready to catch them when they are ready to move. The new list: BRCM, CHKP, AMAT, JNJ, MSFT, AOL, HGSI, BUD, PXLW.
Old members: BRCM, CHKP, CSCO, EMLX, IDTI, INTC, JDSU, MVSN, NT, PWER, SUNW, VTSS
None covered in this portfolio tonight.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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