|
|
us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: AYE; BCR; GOOG; MCK
New Pre-Split Play:
Play Date: 04/26/2005
PDS (Precision Drilling--$76.47; -1.47; optionable): Oil and gas services. Splits 2:1 on 5-27-05.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pds.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Short but sweet 6 week double bottom has formed roughly using the 50 day EMA (73.55) as support. It has rallied on strong volume as it moved up off of the second leg formed the past two weeks. Tuesday volume was strong as PDS fell back some, but it looks as if it is going to perhaps form a handle to its base, i.e. a lateral and slightly lower move that works to shakeout the last sellers. Going to be patient and let it show us the move.
Volume: 448.6K Avg Volume: 334.136K
BUY POINT: $78.12 Volume=501K Target=$84 Stop=$76.55
POSITION: PDS IO - Sept. $75c (65 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pds.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 04/26/2005
STN (Station Casinos--$68.25; +2.70; optionable): Resorts and casinos
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stn.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Bounced higher off the 50 day EMA (64.96) Tuesday, riding the strong BYD earnings higher. Good above average volume surge on the move as it started higher after a 6 week pullback to test the mid-March break higher. This pullback has fully tested that move, setting up the next bounce. STN held solid during the selling, though it did show some strong volume as it broke below the 50 day EMA for a session last week. Strong money flow has turned higher ahead of the stock and relative strength broke out as well, both strong indications the stock is going to continue higher.
Volume: 982.4K Avg Volume: 547.09K
BUY POINT: $68.75 Volume=800K Target=$75 Stop=$66.38
POSITION: STN GM - July $65c (76 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/stn.html
New Downside Plays:
Play Date: 04/26/2005
TTC (Toro--$41.64; -0.91; optionable): Mowers, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ttc.html
STATUS: Put. Volume jumped Tuesday as TTC started lower once more. It broke down through the 50 day EMA (43.16) on strong traded two weeks back in that selling, and then rebounded back to the 50 day up to on lower trade. It tried for a week to break through. The higher volume dump lower Tuesday indicates it has failed. Money flow is leading lower and we anticipate TTC will continue to follow it. A move to the target nets us a 37%ish gain.
Volume: 646K Avg Volume: 322.5K
BUY POINT: $41.51 Volume=400K Target=$40 Stop=$41.82
POSITION: TTC RF - June $42.50p (-59 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ttc.html
Continuing Downside Plays:
Play Date: 04/23/2005
JCI (Johnson Controls--$55.40; -0.43; optionable): Auto controllers (car brains)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jci.html
STATUS: Put. JCI is struggling at 56, unable to move through that level just below the 50 day EMA (56.47). It has trended lower below the 50 day since peaking in late 2004. Looking for JCI to roll over and fall through the 10 day EMA (55.13) to give us the entry point. To recap: A strong run to end last year (ran with the market), JCI peaked and has slid lower in a downtrend since, using the 10 and 18 day EMA (55.13, 55.24) as resistance on most rebounds and the 50 day EMA as a periodic higher test. This past week it made its test, gapping higher as the company raised its guidance. That did not break the downtrend, however, and it is coming back now on rising volume. Looking for a further run lower to enter the play. Looking for a move back down to the prior low and landing a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 996.4K Avg Volume: 934.977K
BUY POINT: $54.75 Volume=950K Target=$52.72 Stop=$55.21
POSITION: JCU RK - June $55p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jci.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all positions but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
AHC: Forecast 4-26-05. Rebounded on lower volume this past week. No announcement after the earnings release Tuesday.
AMHC: Researching date.
APPX: Forecast 5-4-05
CHTT: Researching the date.
CI: Forecast 5-4-05
CNMD: Forecast 5-17-05
CTSH: Forecast 4-27-05. Selling off ahead of the earnings.
CVH: Tentatively forecast 5-3-05 before the open.
DADE: Forecast 4-28-05 after the close or 5-23-05.
DGX: No announcement 4-21-05
DIOD: Forecast 4-28-05
DVA: Forecast 5-18-05.
ESRX: Forecast 4-26-05. No announcement but moving higher after hours.
GPN: Researching new date.
GPRO: Forecast 5-4-05
JAH: Forecast 4-28-05. Trying to hold at the 50 day EMA.
KSWS: Forecast 4-28-05.
NMGA: Forecast early June. Nice move to start the play.
OMC: No announcement 4-26-05 so looking 5-24-05 with a board meeting. Will need to recover over the 50 day EMA.
ORLY: Forecast 4-26-05. Solid earnings but was unable to move over the 50 day EMA and did not give us the entry point.
PFCB: Forecast 4-27-05.
UNH: Forecast 5-12-05 with a board meeting.
VLO: Forecast 4-27-05. Premcor deal may short circuit any split.
XRAY: Forecast 4-25-05 after the close. Down on the earnings result. Didn't give us the buy point moving into the earnings.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays: These are in the right sectors for the current market.
Play Date: 04/26/2005
ATK (Alliant Techsystems--$70.1; -0.05; optionable): Aerospace/Defense. Forecast 5-5-05.
BACKGROUND: A bit lower than prior split levels, but a nice pattern to move in.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atk.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. After a breakout in February and a run to 75, ATK is testing back during the selling, coming back to the 50 day EMA (70.40), the point of February lateral consolidation prior to the strong March run. This is working as the handle to a much larger 19 month cup with handle base. Looking for a strong move through the 50 day SMA (71.08) to start the position. Money flow is solid, leading the way higher.
Volume: 334.8K Avg Volume: 305K
BUY POINT: $71.15 Volume=458K Target=$78.35 Stop=$70.11
POSITION: ATK HN - Aug. $70c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/atk.html
Play Date: 04/26/2005
SRX (SRA Intl.--$65.51; -2.20; optionable): ITS software. A wild card as no split history. Forecast 5-2-05.
BACKGROUND: A new issue in June 2003, SRX has no splits in its history.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/srx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. While much of tech struggles, SRX has set up a nice 15 week base sporting solid 5 to 2 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume), showing a lot of accumulation as SRX formed this pattern over the 50 day EMA (61.89, an important support level. Big break higher Monday on strong volume and no real news other than completing an acquisition. Tuesday it was promptly downgraded and sold back on still strong but lower volume. Downgrades of strong stocks breaking to new highs is nothing unusual. The strong recover and continue. Thus this downgrade may give us the opening we are looking for. Looking for a move back up over the early April high (66.51) to move into positions. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout.
Volume: 334.9K Avg Volume: 176.636K
BUY POINT: $66.65 Volume=300K Target=$74 Stop=$64.22
POSITION: SRX IM - Sept. $65c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/srx.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Buy not yet hit:
Play Date: 04/23/2005
CVH (Coventry Health Care--$67.58; -0.80; optionable): Health care plans. Forecast to announce a split 5-3-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split 12-23-03 at $63.30.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvh.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Trying to make the move, but not getting any volume support. Decent bounce Monday and then a modest test back Tuesday on continued below average volume. Still looks good, just needs to show stronger trade. To recap: After a strong run up the 18 day EMA (67.35) following a late January breakout, CVH is making on of the periodic tests of the 50 day EMA (64.94) that a stock on a strong run makes. It bounces 4 to 5 times up the 18 day and then takes a deeper rest before starting back up. As the market sold Friday, volume edged higher as CVH started off the 50 day EMA. Just needs some volume.
Volume: 830.9K Avg Volume: 1.034M
BUY POINT: New: $67.89 (orig. $67.32) Volume=1.2M Target=$75 Stop=$65.05
POSITION: CVH GM - July $65c (62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cvh.html
Play Date: 04/21/2005
DADE (Dade Behring Holdings--$59.35; -0.47; optionable): Diagnostic substances. Forecast to announce a split 4-28-05 after the close or 5-23-05 in conjunction with a shareholder meeting where additional shares will be authorized.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dade.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Low volume test back to the 50 day EMA (59.27) Tuesday, unable to hold the rising, average volume move Monday. Still a nice pattern ,and showing good upside volume of late. Like the pattenr and will look at a partial positions before the close Wednesday if it does not rally ahead of that time. To recap: A very low profile double bottom; you could call it a cup still forming, but the pattern is there. Strong volume Thursday as DADE jumped to 60.50, but it could not hold the move. A nice 7 week pattern following the mid-February breakout. Money flow is moving higher ahead of price. It is set up to make the move. Just want to see it clear the 50 day SMA on some continued strong volume.
Volume: 100.228K Avg Volume: 222.131K
BUY POINT: $60.25 Volume=319K Target=$66.45 Stop=$58.89
POSITION: JDQ HL - Aug. $60c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dade.html
Play Date: 04/23/2005
DIOD (Diodes--$27.1; +0.29; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits. Forecast to announce a split 4-28-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Last split its stock 3:2 on 11-26-03 at 28.50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/diod.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working laterally over the 18 day EMA (25.68) on lower, below average volume as it continues to set up for the break higher. Very nice action. To recap: After getting a bit rocky on us at the 50 day EMA (25.95) recently, DIOD rallied right back and continued forming the handle to the 6 month base. Strong 6 to 3 accumulation in the base (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buyers in the pattern. Holding over the 50 day EMA as it works on the handle. Strong money flow is leading higher. Need to be patient and let it show us the move this week as it moves into earnings.
Volume: 66.597K Avg Volume: 137.636K
BUY POINT: $27.48 Volume=214K Target=$33.35 Stop=$26
POSITION: DUH IE - Sept. $25c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/diod.html
Play Date: 04/12/2005
PFCB (PF Changs--$57.98; -0.93; optionable): Restaurants. Forecast to announce a split 4-27-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 4-3-02 at $64.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfcb.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Back to the 50 day EMA (58.13) Tuesday but on low volume as PFCB awaited its earnings. It has set up the move, holding this important support point as the market has sold off. Looking for a bounce up through the 18 day EMA (59.11) on solid trade to move into positions. To recap: PFCB broke higher to start the month, gapping higher off the 50 day EMA and rallying to 62. It has now tested the move, holding support at the 50 day EMA. Strong 4 to 2 accumulation in the pattern set up the breakout. Money flow is strong and relative strength broke out as well. It used the recent pullback to test its breakout and now is ready to continue the move.
Volume: 284.143K Avg Volume: 408.363K
BUY POINT: New: $59.89 (orig. $58.88) Volume=582K Target=$67.45 Stop=$57.64
POSITION: HUO GL - July $60c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pfcb.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/23/2005
SWN (Southwestern Energy--$60.1; -0.94; optionable): Gas utilities. Splits 2:1 on a date to be announced
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/swn.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Low volume fade Tuesday as SWN drifts laterally on below average volume the past three sessions. Nice, easy action is setting up the breakout higher. Just being patient to let it show us a break higher on some improving volume. To recap: SWN came right back, rebounding from a drop through the 50 day EMA (57.36) a week back. That move actually formed the right shoulder to an 8 week accumulation base sporting 2 to 0 accumulation (2 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume), setting up a breakout to come. It has other good characteristics such as using the 50 day EMA as support for the base, and relative strength breaking out ahead of the stock.
Volume: 335K Avg Volume: 590.859K
BUY POINT: $60.75 Volume=650K Target=$65 Stop=$58.35
POSITION: SWN FL - June $60c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/swn.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/23/2005
MCRS (Micros System--$36.17; -0.43; optionable): Technical and system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mcrs.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Holding the 18 day EMA on slightly higher, average volume. Nice easy test back in the handle, holding this near support. Want to see that volume continue higher as it moves through the buy point. To recap: Split in early February as it was starting the formation of the current 16 week base. Big move up to end March and then the current pullback on low volume is textbook action. The pullback forms the handle where the last sellers are shaken out. Positive accumulation in the pattern is setting up the breakout. Money flow is strong and leading higher. Looks super, and just waiting for the break higher to move into the play.
Volume: 309.662K Avg Volume: 312.689K
BUY POINT: $38.04 Volume=469K Target=$44 Stop=$37.11
POSITION: MFK IU - Sept. $37.50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mcrs.html
Play Date: 04/21/2005
ORCT (Orckit Communication--$20.52; -0.43; no options): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/orct.html
STATUS: Breakout test. A continued low volume lateral move above the 18 day EMA (20.16) is good action as ORCT continues to test the strong breakout move. This lower volume shows few sellers on the test. Once they are gone it is ready to resume the move. To recap: ORCT split in early April, but never gave a pre-split run. Instead it moved in a very tight lateral move over the 18 day EMA. Last week it came to life and shot higher on volume, rallying to 25. It spent the past week easing back on lower volume to test the move, holding the 18 day EMA as it did.
Volume: 246.568K Avg Volume: 287.16K
BUY POINT: $21.98 Volume=725K Target=$26 Stop=$20.44
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/orct.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
trade stock
|
