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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: JCI; TTC; XLE
New Pre-Split Play:
Play Date: 04/28/2005
BEBE (Bebe Stores--$32.65; -0.85; optionable): Apparel stores. Splits 3:2 on 6-6-05.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bebe.html
After Hours: $33.21
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. BEBE announced a fast split, having just split in December. After a breakout in early March from a 14 week ascending base BEBE made a move up the 18 day EMA (33.83). In the recent market selling it faded back to the 50 day EMA. It is holding at the 50 day, and the split news may send it higher off of this key support. Looking for that above average volume as it makes the move over the 18 day EMA.
Volume: 597.605K Avg Volume: 689.454K
BUY POINT: $33.95 Volume=1M Target=$39.95 Stop=$32.25
POSITION: KUO IF - Sept. $30c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bebe.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 04/28/2005
BRL (Barr Labs--$51.4; -0.37; optionable): Generic drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brl.html
STATUS: Breakout test. BRL is in a big 18 month base. It broke higher out of a 14 week ascending base to start the month, rallying to 54. It has slid back to the 18 day EMA (51.46) the past week, holding that level the past three sessions in some pretty intense market selling. That is an indication of strength we like to see, and we anticipate BRL will continue higher from this level when some of the selling pressure eases.
Volume: 705.8K Avg Volume: 679.318K
BUY POINT: $52.42 Volume=1M Target=$59 Stop=$51.25
POSITION: BRL HJ - Aug. $50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/brl.html
New Downside Plays:
Play Date: 04/28/2005
AAPL (Apple Computer--$35.54; -0.41; optionable): PC's, iPods
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aapl.html
After Hours: $35.71
STATUS: Put. The 10 day EMA (36.77) is sliding lower, pushing down on the stock price as AAPL tries to hold its lateral range above 35. AAPL tanked two weeks back on earnings that were not as strong as anticipated. It has moved laterally, trying to recover. Volume has been very low as it moves sideways. Money flow, however, continues lower ahead of price, and price typically follows the money. Looking for a break through the recent support on rising volume to enter. A move to the target lands us a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 20.617M Avg Volume: 31.08M
BUY POINT: $35.21 Volume=3M Target=$33.05 Stop=$36.75
POSITION: AAQ RG - June $35p (-41 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aapl.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all positions but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
AMHC: Researching date.
APPX: Forecast 5-4-05. Got the dips Thursday. Needs to recover the 50 day right away.
ATK: Forecast 5-5-05.
CHTT: Researching the date.
CI: Forecast 5-4-05
CNMD: Forecast 5-17-05
CTSH: No split 4-27-05. Never gave the entry point.
CVH: Tentatively forecast 5-3-05 before the open.
DADE: Forecast 4-28-05 after the close or 5-23-05. No split announced after the close but will likely give us the entry point tomorrow for the next date coming in May.
DGX: No announcement 4-21-05. Holding up well as we research the next date.
DIOD: Forecast 4-28-05. No split announcement but set up to give us the breakaway move.
DVA: Forecast 5-18-05. Struggling below the 50 day EMA.
ESRX: No split 4-26-05 but holding up well.
GPN: Researching new date.
GPRO: Forecast 5-4-05
JAH: Forecast 4-28-05. No news of any split but it failed to hold the 50 day EMA.
KSWS: Forecast 4-28-05. Didn't give us the entry and it was falling Thursday after guiding lower. This is why we look for a good technical entry point.
NMGA: Forecast early June. Waiting for a test of the 10 day EMA to give us another entry point.
OMC: Forecast 5-24-05 with a board meeting. Not recovering the 50 day EMA as it heads lower.
ORLY: No split 4-26-05. Blasted higher Wednesday.
PFCB: Forecast 4-27-05. Could not bounce off the 50 day EMA so we waited. It fell below that level Wednesday and sold some more Thursday. Again, no good entry point.
SRX: Forecast 5-2-05
UNH: Forecast 5-12-05 with a board meeting.
VLO: Forecast 4-27-05. No split announced though its acquisition Premcor announced good earnings.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays: These are in the right sectors for the current market.
Play Date: 04/28/2005
DNA (Genentech--$70.02; -1.87; optionable): Biotech cancer drugs. Researching the date. Just announced earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split on 10-5-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $172. Things were a bit wilder then, and now near $100 DNA is ready for another split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dna.html
After Hours: $70.22
STATUS: Breakout test. Good earnings and good news about one of its cancer drugs shot it higher two weeks back, breaking the stock out of a 12 month cup with handle base. It came back to test the 10 day EMA (68.90) on that move only to gap higher again Tuesday on news that its drug prolongs life for years not months. Lower, below average volume on the pullback the past two sessions looks to be giving us an entry point over the 10 day. Want to see it hold and rebound on some rising, above average volume to enter.
Volume: 5.622M Avg Volume: 5.462M
BUY POINT: $70.38 Volume=8.2M Target=$81 Stop=$67.78
POSITION: DWN IN - Sept. $70c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dna.html
Play Date: 04/28/2005
WC (Wellchoice Empire Blue--$55.02; +1.02; optionable): Health care plans. Just announced earnings so researching the next date.
BACKGROUND: No splits in its history.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wc.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. WC reported earnings Wednesday, showing a big doji at the 50 day EMA (53.97) on huge volume. It held and then started higher Thursday on continued strong trade. WC broke out from a 14 week flat (very flat) base in early April, rallying to 58. It has tested the move and has held the 50 day. Looking for a stronger volume as it moves higher off the 18 day EMA (54.86). A new issue in late 2002, a good move from here takes it to a new all-time high.
Volume: 519.4K Avg Volume: 253.636K
BUY POINT: $55.45 Volume=380K Target=$63.55 Stop=$53.78
POSITION: WC JK - Oct. $55c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wc.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Buy not yet hit:
Play Date: 04/21/2005
DADE (Dade Behring Holdings--$60.26; +0.02; optionable): Diagnostic substances. No announcement 4-28-05 after the close so looking at 5-23-05 in conjunction with a shareholder meeting where additional shares will be authorized.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dade.html
After Hours: $60.26
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Excellent earnings so may get a good boost Friday. Held the 50 day SMA (60.24) on the Thursday close. Looks ready and ready to move in on a further rise from here. To recap: A very low profile double bottom; you could call it a cup still forming, but the pattern is there. Strong volume Thursday as DADE jumped to 60.50, but it could not hold the move. A nice 7 week pattern following the mid-February breakout. Money flow is moving higher ahead of price. It is set up to make the move. Just want to see it clear the 50 day SMA on some continued strong volume.
Volume: 373.913K Avg Volume: 224.026K
BUY POINT: $60.25 Volume=319K Target=$66.45 Stop=$58.89
POSITION: JDQ HL - Aug. $60c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dade.html
Play Date: 04/25/2005
EW (Edwards Life Sciences--$44.11; +0.12; optionable): Medical appliances. Researching date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ew.html
BACKGROUND: No splits in its history.
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Good volume Thursday as EW eased higher, but no breakaway move. Very good action in a weak market, however, and looking for it to give us that breakaway move. To recap: Volume surged to end last week as EW crouched at the 50 day EMA (42.59). Monday it shot higher on continued strong volume. This test follows the attempted breakout from an 11 week base in late February. No volume and that move failed, setting up the current 7 week test. Money flow is leading higher and relative strength broke out on the Monday move, moving to a new high ahead of the price. That is a bullish indication. Looking to move in on a further volume move higher and then take more positions on the test. Moving to a new high where there are no disgruntled shareholders.
Volume: 561.2K Avg Volume: 426.363K
BUY POINT: New: $44.25 (orig. $44.05) Volume=600K Target=$50 Stop=$43.05
POSITION: EW HI - Aug. $45c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ew.html
Play Date: 04/27/2005
SIVB (Silicon Valley Bancshares--$46.88; -0.08; optionable): Regional Pacific banks. Announced earnings 4-21-05. Researching next date.
BACKGROUND: Announced 2:1 splits in 1998 and 2000 at $55.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sivb.html
After Hours: $46.89
STATUS: Breakout test. Held up well above the 18 day EMA (46.04) Thursday as the market sold, a good sign of strength. Volume was up above average. Looks ready, just needs a bit better market. To recap: A nice 14 week ascending triangle that broke out two weeks back, ignoring the market and its selling. A nice, orderly test of that strong volume move has set up the rebound. Strong 5 to 2 accumulation shows the buying interest along with money flow surging ahead of price. Ready to continue the move.
Volume: 445.143K Avg Volume: 357.585K
BUY POINT: $47.11 Volume=515K Target=$53 Stop=$45.55
POSITION: SQU HI - Aug. $45c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sivb.html
Play Date: 04/26/2005
SRX (SRA Intl.--$64.75; -0.79; optionable): ITS software. A wild card as no split history. Forecast 5-2-05.
BACKGROUND: A new issue in June 2003, SRX has no splits in its history.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/srx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Low volume as SRX tested back to and held the 10 day EMA (64.59) Thursday. This continues the test of the big Monday break higher. Very good action and setting up for the next move. To recap: While much of tech struggles, SRX has set up a nice 15 week base sporting solid 5 to 2 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume), showing a lot of accumulation as SRX formed this pattern over the 50 day EMA (62.14), an important support level. Big break higher Monday on strong volume and no real news other than completing an acquisition. Tuesday it was promptly downgraded and sold back on still strong but lower volume. Downgrades of strong stocks breaking to new highs is nothing unusual. The strong recover and continue. Thus this downgrade may give us the opening we are looking for. Looking for a move back up over the early April high (66.51) to move into positions. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout.
Volume: 131.9K Avg Volume: 175.454K
BUY POINT: $66.65 Volume=300K Target=$74 Stop=$64.22
POSITION: SRX IM - Sept. $65c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/srx.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Current play looking nice:
Play Date: 04/23/2005
HSY (Hershey Foods--$63.56; -0.05; optionable): Kisses, almond bars, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hsy.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. HSY is forming a very nice handle to its 8 week base that formed using the 50 day EMA (61.10) as support. Nice lateral move in a tight range this week has set up the next break higher. Volume rallied back up to average Thursday. Money flow is solid and relative strength is making the breakout ahead of the stock, a bullish indication. Looking to add positions as the stock makes the breakout.
Volume: 948.2K Avg Volume: 973.08K
BUY POINT: New: $64.27 (orig. $63.83) Volume=1.1M Target=$70.55 Stop=$61.87
POSITION: HSY HL - Aug. $60c (80 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hsy.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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