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us stock market, trend trading stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: CI; DIOD; DNA; GTIV; SIVB; WC
New Pre-Split Play:
Play Date: 04/30/2005
UTX (United Technologies--$101.72; +1.88; optionable): Elevators and other building system and aerospace products. Splits 2:1 on 6-13-05.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/utx.html
STATUS: Flat base. UTX sold off three weeks back when the market dumped lower, but it held the 200 day SMA (97.62) and rebounded easily back into its 18 week flat base that has formed mostly around the 50 day EMA (100.90). Solid 4 to 2 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buying as this leader has moved laterally to set up its next move higher. Made a higher low off 100 this past week. Looking for a strong volume break above the recent highs hit last week to initiate a position.
Volume: 2.102M Avg Volume: 2.04M
BUY POINT: $102.57 Volume=3.1M Target=$107.45 Stop=$100.75
POSITION: UTX HT - Aug. $100c (74 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/utx.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 04/30/2005
MSCC (Microsemi--$16.90; +1.09; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mscc.html
After Hours: $16.87
STATUS: Pennant. Huge volume Friday as MSCC announced stronger than expected earnings after the Thursday close. The news helped the stock make a higher low at the 50 day EMA (16.07) in its 20 week pattern that was basically a rolling range between 14.50 and 18. This move looks to have changed the character of the trading range. Money flow is surging higher head of price, setting the stage for a breakout from the range. Want to see it retake the early April closing high (16.90) on continued strong trade to mov in on this play.
Volume: 1.782M Avg Volume: 706.583K
BUY POINT: $17.11 Volume=1M Target=$20 Stop=$16.57
POSITION: QMS IC - Sept. $15c (80 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mscc.html
New Downside Plays:
Play Date: 04/30/2005
GNTX (Gentex Corp.--$32.46; -0.27; optionable): Auto parts (auto dimming mirrors), building fire protection.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gntx.html
After Hours: $32.01
STATUS: Put. Set to split 2:1 on 5-9-05, but it is falling hard. GNTX is in the process of a breakdown from the 200 day SMA (33.77) after a rebound from its 2005 downtrend. This is just another step in its long trend lower. The selling intensified as the week ended, falling Friday as the market rallied. It is following some weak money flow lower We anticipate it will continue lower from here and are willing to take positions. Then if it bounces some we will add positions as it rolls back over. A move to the target from the Friday close lands us a 38%ish gain.
Volume: 1.079M Avg Volume: 654.727K
BUY POINT: $32.35 Volume=800K Target=$30.85 Stop=$32.82
POSITION: GXQ RG - June $35p (-75 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gntx.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all positions but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
AMHC: Researching date.
APPX: Forecast 5-4-05. Unable to retake the 50 day Friday so we will see if it can form back up.
ATK: Forecast 5-5-05.
CHTT: Forecast late June. Researching to pinpoint date.
CI: Forecast 5-4-05
CNMD: Forecast 5-17-05
CVH: Tentatively forecast 5-3-05 before the open.
DADE: Forecast 5-23-05
DGX: Researching date. Setting up for the next break higher.
DIOD: No announcement 4-28-05 but great earnings sent it higher.
DNA: Researching to pinpoint the date.
DVA: Forecast 5-18-05. Nice doji with tail at the 50 day EMA.
ESRX: Researching to pinpoint the date.
GPN: Researching new date.
GPRO: Forecast 5-4-05
NMGA: With the company announcing that it was likely to be taken private, no chance real chance for a split.
OMC: Forecast 5-24-05 with a board meeting. May have set up a short double bottom mimicking that of the SP500.
ORLY: Researching the next date.
SRX: Forecast 5-2-05
UNH: Forecast 5-12-05 with a board meeting.
WC: Researching to pinpoint the date.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays: These are in the right sectors for the current market.
Play Date: 04/30/2005
RYN (Rayonier--$50.26; +0.83; optionable): Forest products. Forecast to announce a split 5-19-05
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 5-22-03 at $48.40.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/ryn.html
STATUS: Flat base. After breaking out of a 9 week cup base in early March, RYN has worked laterally for 7 weeks as the market went through its ups and downs (mostly downs). During the last two weeks it has tested and held its 50 day EMA (48.86) on the lows. It is moving off the 50 day EMA, but still needs to show some volume as it makes the move higher.
Volume: 268.1K Avg Volume: 321.818K
BUY POINT: $50.55 Volume=455K Target=$56 Stop=$49.32
POSITION: RYN HJ - Aug. $50c (62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ryn.html
New buy points on current forecasts:
Play Date: 04/30/2005
DGX (Quest Diagnostics--$105.8; +1.63; optionable): Medical labs. Researching the next split date.
BACKGROUND. Announced a 2:1 split on 2-22-01 at a price of $101.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dgx.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. A short 5 week base has formed, using the 50 day EMA (102.04) as support for the 'head.' It made a higher low this past week at he 18 day EMA (104.25) and Friday it was moving higher off that level on strong volume. Money flow is leading higher and relative strength is breaking out. Looking to move in as it continues the move.
Volume: 469.9K Avg Volume: 511.681K
BUY POINT: $106.08 Volume=768K Target=$115 Stop=$103.95
POSITION: DGX HA - Aug. $105c (63 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dgx.html
Play Date: 04/30/2005
UNH (Unitedhealth Group--$94.51; +2.02; optionable): Health care plans. Forecast to announce a split 5-12-05 with a board meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 5-8-03 at $92.80. Prior to that it announced a 2:1 split on 10-25-00 at $106.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/unh.html
After Hours: $94.95
STATUS: Double bottom. After a strong run in late March to early April, UNH fell victim to some profit taking. It fell back through its 50 day EMA (92.30), rebounded above that level, but then faded back once more early last week. It held the same support at 90 on both legs lower, undercutting the prior intraday low slightly on Wednesday but rebounding on strong volume. It continued that rebound Friday on more above average volume. This formed a small double bottom similar to SP500, but this stock is a leader and much stronger than the large cap index. Looking to move back in on a further upside run from here.
Volume: 3.645M Avg Volume: 2.827M
BUY POINT: $94.88 Volume=3.5M Target=$104 Stop=$92.21
POSITION: UNH IS - Sept. $95c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/unh.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Buy not yet hit:
Play Date: 04/23/2005
CVH (Coventry Health Care--$68.43; +1.64; optionable): Health care plans. Forecast to announce a split 5-03-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split 12-23-03 at $63.30.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvh.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. After a strong breakout in late January CVH has rallied up the 18 day EMA (now at 67.53). After a breakout and long run up the short term MA a stock needs a breather. It usually takes it at the 50 day EMA (65.28). During the market's back and forth action last week CVH held easily above the 50 day EMA, bouncing up and down as well but on continued low, below average volume. After surviving the up and down action last week CVH is set to make a move if it is going to do so. Looking for that volume to shoot up as it continues higher.
Volume: 662.1K Avg Volume: 1.008M
BUY POINT: $68.88 Volume=1.2M Target=$76 Stop=$65.88
POSITION: CVH GM - July $65c (62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cvh.html
Play Date: 04/25/2005
EW (Edwards Life Sciences--$44.04; -0.07; optionable): Medical appliances. Researching date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ew.html
BACKGROUND: No splits in its history.
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. On the cusp of greatness, or at least a breakout. EW is moving laterally right at the early March highs roughly at 44. Friday volume shot up as the stock ran in place, holding its gain from Monday. Working laterally and forming something of a handle to its 8 week base above the 50 day EMA (42.65), EW looks just about ready. To recap: This test follows the attempted breakout from an 11 week base in late February. No volume and that move failed, setting up the current 7 week test or what is now a new base. Money flow is leading higher and relative strength broke out on the Monday move, moving to a new high ahead of the price. Looking to move in on a further volume move higher and then take more positions on the test. Moving to a new high where there are no disgruntled shareholders.
Volume: 801.7K Avg Volume: 426.5K
BUY POINT: New: $44.25 (orig. $44.05) Volume=600K Target=$50 Stop=$43.05
POSITION: EW HI - Aug. $45c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ew.html
Play Date: 04/26/2005
SRX (SRA Intl.--$65.35; +0.6; optionable): ITS software. A wild card as no split history. Forecast 5-2-05.
BACKGROUND: A new issue in June 2003, SRX has no splits in its history.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/srx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume jumped back up Friday as SRX tapped the 18 day EMA (64.07) on the low and rebounded for a gain. That shows buyers moved in as it tested this near support. Looks ready to make the breakaway move we have been looking for. To recap: While much of tech struggles, SRX has set up a nice 15 week base sporting solid 5 to 2 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume), showing a lot of accumulation as SRX formed this pattern over the 50 day EMA (62.27), an important support level. Big break higher Monday on strong volume and no real news other than completing an acquisition. Tuesday it was promptly downgraded and sold back on still strong but lower volume. Downgrades of strong stocks breaking to new highs is nothing unusual. The strong recover and continue. Looking for a move back up over the early April high (66.51) to move into positions. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout.
Volume: 298K Avg Volume: 173.5K
BUY POINT: $66.65 Volume=300K Target=$74 Stop=$64.22
POSITION: SRX IM - Sept. $65c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/srx.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Current play looking nice:
Play Date: 04/23/2005
HSY (Hershey Foods--$63.90; +0.34; optionable): Kisses, almond bars, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hsy.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Looking very nice as HSY forms its lateral, low volume handle as the 10 day EMA (62.81) rises to meet it. That will probably lead to the breakout, providing us the next entry point. To recap: HSY is forming a very nice handle to its 8 week base that formed using the 50 day EMA (61.21) as support. Nice lateral move in a tight range this week has set up the next break higher. Money flow is solid and relative strength is making the breakout ahead of the stock, a bullish indication. Looking to add positions as the stock makes the breakout.
Volume: 825.4K Avg Volume: 980.046K
BUY POINT: New: $64.27 (orig. $63.83) Volume=1.1M Target=$70.55 Stop=$61.87
POSITION: HSY HL - Aug. $60c (80 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hsy.html
Play Date: 04/28/2005
BRL (Barr Labs--$51.86; +0.46; optionable): Generic drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brl.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still holding in a tight range over the 18 day EMA (51.51) as BRL prepares for the next break higher. This was excellent action in the back and forth market last week. It shows BRL is a leader going about its own business. We anticipate it will provide the move higher this week. To recap: BRL is in a big 18 month base. It broke higher out of a 14 week ascending base to start the month, rallying to 54. It has slid back to the 18 day EMA the past week, holding that level the past three sessions in some pretty intense market selling. That is an indication of strength we like to see, and we anticipate BRL will continue higher from this level when some of the selling pressure eases.
Volume: 519.9K Avg Volume: 705.847K
BUY POINT: $52.42 Volume=1M Target=$59 Stop=$51.25
POSITION: BRL HJ - Aug. $50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/brl.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
trend trading stock
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