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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ALL; PEP; SIVB
Thursday night play results:
SGR: Started lower on strong volume. Closed lower but managed to rebound with the market and cuts its loss.
ALL: Strong volume as it made the breakout from the nice pattern.
UTHR: Volume rose as it cut through the 18 day EMA. Looks as if it has to do some more testing to set up the next move.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/30/2005
QGEN (Qiagen--$13; +0.06; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qgen.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. QGEN has recovered and tightened up nicely over the 18 day EMA (12.91). Very nice action as volume trails off well below average. QGEN seemingly ignoring the back and forth action last week. A nicely formed 15 month base sporting solid 13 to 9 accumulation (13 up price weeks on rising volume to 9 down price weeks on rising volume). The accumulation shows net buying and sets up the foundation for the breakout and run. Strong money flow is leading higher. Really like the calm action as the market pitched back and forth. Ready for the breakout move, & it is likely to be a strong move.
Volume: 156.103K Avg Volume: 329.454K
BUY POINT: $13.55 Volume=500K Target=$16 Stop=$12.85
POSITION: QXE HV - Aug. $12.50c (96 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/qgen.html
Play Date: 04/30/2005
RVI (Retail Ventures--$10.08; +0.28; no options): Retail stores (Value City, DSW Shoe Warehouse, Filene's Basement)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rvi.html
After Hours: $10.02
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. Despite all the talk about lagging confidence and its ramifications, many consumer-based stocks continue to perform. Volume exploded Friday as RVI started the breakout move from its 11 month cup with handle base. Excellent 10 to 4 accumulation in the pattern set up this breakout, and with money flow leading the way higher the stock is following. Relative strength broke out as well, a very good indication of the staying power of the breakout. Looking to move in on a continued move higher and then add to positions on the first test.
Volume: 786.4K Avg Volume: 181.676K
BUY POINT: $10.15 Volume=273K Target=$12.21 Stop=$9.56
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/rvi.html
Play Date: 04/30/2005
YHOO (Yahoo!--$34.5; +0.17; optionable): Internet search, portal
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/yhoo.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. YHOO is making a higher low at the 50 day EMA (33.89), showing a nice doji with tail that tapped that level on the Friday low and then rebounded. YHOO is working on building the right side of its 5 month base, making its second test of the move off of its low at 31 hit in February and March. Accumulation is positive at 5 to 4, not bad for this early in the base. Looking to move in as it continues higher and works on its base.
Volume: 15.763M Avg Volume: 23M
BUY POINT: $35.65 Volume=27M Target=$40 Stop=$33.75
POSITION: YHQ JZ - Oct. $32.50c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/yhoo.html
Downside:
Play Date: 04/30/2005
GNTX (Gentex Corp.--$32.46; -0.27; optionable): Auto parts (auto dimming mirrors), building fire protection.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gntx.html
After Hours: $32.01
STATUS: Put. GNTX is in the process of a breakdown from the 200 day SMA (33.77) after a rebound from its 2005 downtrend. This is just another step in its long trend lower. The selling intensified as the week ended, falling Friday as the market rallied. It is following some weak money flow lower We anticipate it will continue lower from here and are willing to take positions. Then if it bounces some we will add positions as it rolls back over. A move to the target from the Friday close lands us a 38%ish gain.
Volume: 1.079M Avg Volume: 654.727K
BUY POINT: $32.35 Volume=800K Target=$30.85 Stop=$32.82
POSITION: GXQ RG - June $35p (-75 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/gntx.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, CELG, BLUD, BR, COH, HW, PSYS, RTSX, STN
New additions: CELG, PSYS, RTSX
CELG: Broke out in early March on good news regarding its drugs and has rallied up the 18 day EMA since. It is making a test of the 18 day EMA right now, setting up for its next break higher. Can make a couple of more bounces off of this level.
PSYS: After a strong breakout and run from November to early April, PSYS is testing that move. It is taking a breather at the 50 day EMA, trying to hold and set up the next break higher. May take some more time to move laterally along the 50 day and form the next small base.
RTSX: Another healthcare stock and a new issue in June 2004. Formed a three month base the first quarter of 2005 and broke out. It rallied to 24 and came back to test the 50 day EMA two weeks back. It has rebounded off that level and worked laterally last week below the prior high, trying to set up for the break through that level.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
POZN: The question on this stock was whether it was a long or short play. It has trended lower since peaking in March 2004. It has trended steadily lower since September, using the 50 day EMA as resistance in the downtrend. On 4-21 results showed its migraine drug was successful. That rocketed the stock from 3.55 to 7.50 in four sessions. That took it up its 200 day SMA and now it is moving laterally just below that level on lower volume. With the news regarding the drug you would want to see it roll over on stronger volume to suggest some downside ahead after such a strong move.
Upside:
CME: Huge mover in 2004 as commodities surged; as the exchange for them it surged as well. Rolled over to start the year, continued to the 200 day SMA. It broke below that level but then gapped back through it 4 sessions back on good earnings. A trend reversal gap that cleared the 50 day EMA and is now testing that move on lower volume. If the volume comes back in as it moves off that level it looks like gravy once more.
Downside:
TRW: Diving lower down the 10 and 18 day EMA. It surged to a peak in mid-March, but that was all it had.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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