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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: HANS; RVI; TZIX; UTHR; SGR
Monday night play results:
FLS: Moved up again on some rising trade.
UTHR: Strong volume as UTHR surges.
WBSN: Still working laterally at the 50 day EMA.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/03/2005
HUM (Humana--$34.4; -0.36; optionable): Health care plans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hum.html
STATUS: Breakout test. HUM shot higher Friday on strong volume, starting the breakout from a 12 week trading range wrapped around the 50 day EMA (32.69). Positive 3 to 2 accumulation in the base has set up the breakout and a run higher. Relative strength broke out on the move, a good indication of the stock's leadership place. After the big move it is taking a bit of a rest, setting up for the next move.
Volume: 2.2M Avg Volume: 1.23M
BUY POINT: $35.05 Volume=1.6M Target=$40 Stop=$33.22
POSITION: HUM HG - Aug. $35c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/hum.html
Play Date: 05/03/2005
TUP (Tupperware--$21.67; +0.67; optionable): If you want to lock in freshness . . .
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tup.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Strong surge on huge volume last week as HUM broke out form a 15 week flat base sporting excellent 6 to 2 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume). That shows excellent buying along with the fact it formed along the 50 day EMA (20.45), an important support level where big money steps in to support stocks. Strong money flow is surging and relative strength broke out. After a nice test of the move last week and Monday, it surged back up Tuesday on strong volume. Looking to step in on a further move.
Volume: 1.199M Avg Volume: 407.863K
BUY POINT: $21.88 Volume=450K Target=$25.48 Stop=$20.75
POSITION: TUP JD - Oct. $20c (81 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/tup.html
Play Date: 05/03/2005
WITS (Witness Systems--$18; +0.16; optionable): Application software to capture customer intelligence.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wits.html
After Hours: $18
STATUS: Cup. WITS rallied off the bottom of its 12 week cup base 5 sessions back, moving on strong volume. It has tested back the last four sessions on lower trade, easing back to the 50 day EMA (17.41) to test the move. Tuesday WITS was rallying again on stronger, above average volume. Excellent 5 to 2 accumulation in the base shows a lot of buying already at this stage. Looking for continued volume as it continues higher; that is when we move in.
Volume: 444.092K Avg Volume: 306.863K
BUY POINT: $18.38 Volume=460K Target=$21.21 Stop=$17.45
POSITION: UPJ IW - Sept. $17.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/wits.html
Downside:
Play Date: 05/03/2005
AC (Alliance Capital Mgmnt--$43.78; -1.15; optionable): Asset management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ac.html
STATUS: Put. AC crashed through the 50 day EMA (45.49) mid-April, and has since tried to retake that level, bouncing back up to the 50 day, but unable to punch through as volume died off. Volume returned Tuesday as AC rolled over, dropping hard. Looking to step in after this failed test sends it lower. A move to the target lands us a 38%ish gain.
Volume: 564.4K Avg Volume: 280.363K
BUY POINT: $43.65 Volume=350K Target=$42 Stop=$43.95
POSITION: AC SJ - July $45p (-62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ac.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, CELG, BLUD, BR, COH, HW, PSYS, RTSX, STN
AAPL: Still struggling below the 10 day EMA.
CELG: Volume jumped back above average as CELG moved off the 18 day EMA.
BLUD: Another doji over the 50 day EMA.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Upside:
GOOG: Breaking higher from a week long lateral test of the blast higher on the earnings in mid-April. Strong volume as it rallied.
NICK: Great volume as NICK (credit services) moves off of the 50 day EMA. We say 'great' kind of tongue in cheek; Average trade is about 39K.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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