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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ASTM; GET; JEC; KOSP; SOSA; UNWR; TYC
Best Plays:
1) OHI: Moving well and just needs some volume.
2) PPD: Nice breakout test and now the run is starting back up.
3) DO: Nice breakout test from a strong stock.
4) CHT: Big 'get ready' volume spike.
5) CRM: Volume moving higher as CRM knocks at the breakout door.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 06/29/2005
ITG (Investment Technology--$20.97; +0.02; optionable): Trade system services for financial markets
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itg.html
STATUS: Breakout test. ITG broke out from a 22 week base early in June and rallied to 21.72. The past two weeks it has faded back to test the move, holding the 18 day EMA (20.58) on fading volume. Has held that support and the breakout and looks ready to rebound. Want to see stronger volume on the move higher that continues the breakout run. Strong 7 to 3 accumulation shows plenty of buying in the base (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume). Want to see that volume jump on the rebound to continue the breakout move.
Volume: 190.4K Avg Volume: 326.869K
BUY POINT: $21.22 Volume=375K Target=$24.45 Stop=$20.55
POSITION: ITG JD - Oct. $20c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/itg.html
Play Date: 06/29/2005
OHI (Omega Healthcare Investments--$13.10; +0.18; no options): Healthcare facilities REIT
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/ohi.html
STATUS: Breakout test. OHI surged out of its 6.5 month base in mid-June on strong volume. It came back almost immediately to test the move, holding the 18 day EMA (12.70), fully testing the move but holding the breakout. Strong 6 to 1 accumulation shows plenty of buyers and provides good support for the breakout. In addition, relative strength broke out on the move and is doing so again right now as OHI comes off of the 18 day EMA to continue the breakout. Ready to move in if it will show just a bit more volume.
Volume: 160.7K Avg Volume: 231.716K
BUY POINT: $13.28 Volume=348K Target=$15.35 Stop=$12.58
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ohi.html
Play Date: 06/29/2005
PPD (Pre-Paid Legal--$44.49; +0.60; optionable): Legal services on an insurance payment basis
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ppd.html
STATUS: Breakout test. PPD surged out of a 6 month saucer base sporting excellent 8 to 2 accumulation (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume). That sets up the breakout and the following run. It surged over 46 and has spent the past week testing that move, holding the 10 day EMA (43.62). Started back up on average volume Wednesday. Looks ready to continue the breakout run.
Volume: 105K Avg Volume: 105K
BUY POINT: $44.72 Volume=165K Target=$51.88 Stop=$43.39
POSITION: PPD KV - Nov. $42.50c (65 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ppd.html
Play Date: 06/29/2005
TXN (Texas Instruments--$28.22; -0.04; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/txn.html
After Hours: $28.19
STATUS: Ascending base. An oldie but one that has set up a good pattern over the past 4 months as it rides up the 50 day EMA (27.01). TXN is showing some good volume spikes as it moves in a tight range the past five weeks, holding the 18 day EMA (27.76). Solid 5 to 3 accumulation is setting up the move. Just waiting to see volume jump as TXN makes a breakaway move.
Volume: 8.883M Avg Volume: 12.254M
BUY POINT: $28.72 Volume=18M Target=$33.35 Stop=$27.55
POSITION: TXN AY - Jan. $27.50c (85 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/txn.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Upside:
New buy points on current plays:
Play Date: 06/29/2005
DO (Diamond Offshore--$53.4; +0.06; optionable): Oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/do.html
STATUS: Test breakout. DO surged out of a nice 13 week cup with handle base in early June and has already delivered us a nice gain. It has come back to test the move this past week on lower and lower, below average volume. Very nice test, showing a tight doji over the 18 day EMA Wednesday. That sets up the next move higher. Excellent money flow is leading the way. Looking for volume to surge as it continues the rebound move.
Volume: 1.516M Avg Volume: 2.144M
BUY POINT: $54.05 Volume=2.2M Target=$64 Stop=$52.22
POSITION: DO LK - Dec. $55c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/do.html
Not yet entered:
Play Date: 06/27/2005
ATAC (Aftermarket Tech--$17.45; +0.55; no options): Aftermarket auto parts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atac.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Good price move Wednesday but volume shriveled to well below average. Making the breakout from its pattern, but we will ened to see more volume on this move to take positions. To recap: Very nice two week handle has formed to the 7 month base. Holding the 18 day EMA (16.60) as it does, a good support level. Nice base sporting outstanding 7 to 1 accumulation (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume). Used the 200 day SMA (15.06) as support for the two legs down. Strong money flow is pointing the way.
Volume: 86.423K Avg Volume: 153.172K
BUY POINT: New: $17.57 (orig. $17.35) Volume=229K Target=$20.45 Stop=$16.35
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/atac.html
Play Date: 06/27/2005
CDIS (Cal Dive--$52.16; -0.07; optionable): Oil and gas equipment and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cdis.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Cup w/handle. Nice low volume test of the 10 day EMA (51.52) as CDIS sets up for the next move higher after the breakout from its pattern. Just need to see the volume jump as it does the same off the 10 day. To recap: CDIS is knocking at the door of a breakout from its 16 week base. Gapped higher two weeks back and came back to test, holding the 10 day EMA but not filling the gap. Solid 6 to 4 accumulation in the pattern shows net buying. Relative strength broke out on the move, and volume has been strong on the upside sessions as it makes its big moves. Looks great and ready to continue its breakout move.
Volume: 405.681K Avg Volume: 615.823K
BUY POINT: $53.38 Volume=800K Target=$60 Stop=$50.95
POSITION: KPQ IJ - Sept. $50c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cdis.html
Play Date: 06/22/2005
CHT (Chunghwa Telecom--$21.55; +0.12; optionable): Chinese wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cht.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume exploded Wednesday as CHT tapped the 18 day EMA (21.24) on the low and rebounded for a modest gain. Still a very nice base and this mega volume 'get ready' spike is telling us just that: get ready. To recap: CHT is working through a three week handle to its 15 week base that formed using the 200 day SMA (20.34) as support for both legs of the double bottom. Solid 6 to 4 accumulation in the pattern is setting up the breakout move. Money flow is also working for the stock, moving higher ahead of price. CHT is setting up for the breakout to a new all-time high.
Volume: 736.9K Avg Volume: 303.933K
BUY POINT: $21.78 Volume=472K Target=$25.25 Stop=$21
POSITION: CHT ID - Sept. $20c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cht.html
Play Date: 06/25/2005
CRM (Salesforce.com--$20.83; +0.17; optionable): Customer relationship management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crm.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume was up and slightly above average Wednesday as CRMS gapped higher and rallied some but could not hold the gain. Still a very fine pattern and knocking at the door of the breakout. Showing good volume of late and that typically precedes the breakout move. To recap: Very nicely formed 8 month base sporting strong 10 to 6 accumulation (10 up price weeks on rising volume to 6 down price weeks on rising volume), setting the foundation for a breakout move. This is its first real base since going public in June 2004. Nice handle has formed this month on low, below average volume. Volume started to creep higher this week, and that typically indicates the breakout is coming. Strong money flow has turned back up ahead of the stock, and CRM is ready to follow the money higher. Nice.
Volume: 1.236M Avg Volume: 1.005M
BUY POINT: $21.08 Volume=1.5M Target=$25.95 Stop=$20.14
POSITION: CRM KD - Nov. $20c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/crm.html
Play Date: 06/22/2005
DOVP (DOV Pharmaceutical--$18.62; +0.44; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dovp.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Starting higher off of the 10 day EMA (18.00) after the nice low volume test, but volume has yet to start back up with it. Still in the handle and still making the bounce toward the breakout, but again needs the volume. To recap: DOVP's current 27 week base is part of a much larger 21 month ascending triangle. In any event, DOVP exploded higher two weeks back on strong volume, forming the right side of its base. As is typical after such a strong move, the stock has eased back to hold some price support at 18. Strong 9 to 6 accumulation shows net buying during the consolidation. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price. Now it has made the full 10 day EMA and needs some volume as it rebounds.
Volume: 174.712K Avg Volume: 260.429K
BUY POINT: $19.05 Volume=377K Target=$22.75 Stop=$17.72
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dovp.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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