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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good Movers: ACMR; DO; EXBD; FTO; KWK; SM; VLO
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 07/02/2005
ANSS (Ansys--$35.31; -0.33; optionable): Engineering simulation software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anss.html
After Hours: $35.31
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A top rated stock, ANSS is forming the handle to an 18 week base that formed roughly around the 50 day EMA (34.22) as it consolidates a strong 2004 run and sets up for the breakout to a new all-time high. Good rally on volume in mid-June and then a pullback to the 50 day EMA to form the handle. Strong 5 to 2 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) has set up the breakout move. Solid money flow is support the move as well. Good volume Thursday and want to see solid volume as it makes the breakout move.
Volume: 153.349K Avg Volume: 210.989K
BUY POINT: $36.35 Volume=316K Target=$42 Stop=$34.88
POSITION: QUS JG - Oct. $35c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anss.html
Play Date: 07/02/2005
COG (Cabot Oil & Gas--$36.60; +1.90; optionable): Oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cog.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. COG split in early April and then fell into the current 12 week base. It sank to the 200 day SMA (31.88) on the drop to form the bottom of the pattern, then rebounded on rising trade in early June. The past two weeks it has slipped back to the 18 day EMA (34.78) to form the handle to the base. Friday volume shot back above average as COG started the breakout move from the handle. Excellent 7 to 2 accumulation in the base shows money moving in all during the consolidation and setting up a good ownership foundation for its breakout and move higher. Looking to step in as the stock continues its breakout move.
Volume: 540K Avg Volume: 494.979K
BUY POINT: $36.87 Volume=700K Target=$42.75 Stop=$35.05
POSITION: COG JG - Oct. $35c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cog.html
Play Date: 07/02/2005
XTO (XTO Energy--$35.23; +1.24; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
After Hours: $35.24
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Another energy stock that has set up well and is starting the breakout move as oil continues to hold stubbornly higher. XTO split in early March and then fell into the current 12 week base. Outstanding 7 to 1 accumulation shows a lot of buying in this strong energy stock as it prepares for the breakout to another all-time high. A frequent splitter, XTO is good to own because it runs higher and splits, building up your share position for things such as covered call sales when it peaks and starts to head into a base. Looking to move in as it continues higher and would like to see some more volume as it does.
Volume: 2.82M Avg Volume: 3.126M
BUY POINT: $35.39 Volume=4.7M Target=$41.22 Stop=$33.78
POSITION: XTO KG - Nov. $35c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xto.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all positions but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
ASH: Forecast 7-25-05. Dove lower Friday, taking it out of contention for now.
BEN: Forecast 7-28-05
CETV: Researching to pinpoint the date.
CI: Tentatively forecast in early August.
CTSH: Forecast 7-12-05. Looking at lot better here at the 50 day EMA.
DNA: Forecast 7-6-05. Coming up this week as it holds the 18 day EMA.
ENR: Forecast 7-28-05
EQT: Forecast 7-28-05
EXBD: Forecast 7-24-05
FO: Forecast 7-22-05
GOOG: Forecast 7-21-05
GPN: Forecast 7-20-05
HOC: Forecast mid-August
IVGN: Researching to pinpoint a date.
IVX: Forecast 7-14-05
KSWS: Forecast 7-22-05. Managed to recover the 50 day EMA to end the week but still needs work.
LM: Forecast 7-21-05
MHS: Forecast 7-26-05
MRVL: Researching to pinpoint a date. Has held the 50 day MA and now we see if this can trigger a move back up.
PHS: Researching next date as no split announced 6-17-05. Still working higher up the 10 day EMA.
PNRA: Testing the 50 day EMA. This should produce a buying point.
RYN: Forecast 7-26-2005
SHLD: Forecast 7-21-05
SIE: Forecast 7-25-05
STN: Forecast 7-28-05
TRMB: Forecast 7-21-05
TSCO: Forecast 7-13-05
URBN: Forecast 7-12-05
VLO: Forecast 7-14-05
WFMI: Forecast in late July.
YUM: Forecast 7-13-05
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 07/02/2005
APA (Apache--$66.9; +2.3; optionable): Oil and gas exploration. Forecast to announce a split 7-28-05 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 12-1-03 at $72.80.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apa.html
After Hours: $66.72
STATUS: Cup w/handle. APA has spent the past two weeks forming the handle that did not set up before it made the mid-June breakout from its 15 week cup base. A good lower volume pullback to the 18 day EMA (64.34) last week set the bottom fo the handle, and APA was moving higher Friday on rising though still below average volume. Nice pattern sporting positive 4 to 3 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume). Relative strength is making the breakout move as well, a good corroboration of the stock move. Looking to step in as the stock continues higher and out of the handle.
Volume: 2.188M Avg Volume: 2.627M
BUY POINT: $67.05 Volume=3.9M Target=$75.45 Stop=$64.22
POSITION: APA JM - Oct. $65c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/apa.html
Play Date: 07/02/2005
ARO (Aeropostale--$33.61; +0.01; optionable): Apparel stores. Researching an exact date; tentatively set for early August.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 3-11-04 at $33.30.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aro.html
STATUS: ARO has been moving up and down in a trading range between 25 and 34 the past 10 months. It has rallied back up to the top of the range, working laterally the past week over the 10 day EMA (33.20) and below the top of the range at 34. There is always the chance it just rolls back down from here and continues in the range, but these ranges typically last 3 to 4 cycles before they change. Needs a bit more work on the handle this week, moving laterally along the 10 day EMA. That will better set up a breakout to the upside. Positive 3:2 accumulation in the recent cup pattern shows accumulation is underway. Just going to be patient and let it show us the move.
Volume: 369.5K Avg Volume: 1.209M
BUY POINT: $34.38 Volume=1.8M Target=$39.45 Stop=$33.08
POSITION: ARO JG - Oct.$35c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aro.html
Play Date: 07/02/2005
EAT (Brinker Intl.--$39.98; -0.07; optionable): Restaurants (Chili's, Romano's, On the Boarder, etc.). Kind of a wild card at this time of the year and tentatively forecast for 8-11-05, but a great pattern has set up.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 12-9-00 at $41.00.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eat.html
STATUS: Breakout test. EAT exploded higher in early June when it raised its earnings outlook. The consumer is confident and spending money for now, and EAT is benefiting accordingly. After that big blast higher EAT has come back to test the move, holding at the 18 day EMA (39.93) the past week on lower, below average volume. Volume started to buck back up Thursday and Friday, indicating that the pullback may be over. It held the 18 day and just over the February and March highs on the test, a good indication it is going to hold and rebound to continue the breakout move. Nice 17 week base formed using the 200 day SMA (35.58) on the low and sporting solid positive 3:2 accumulation. Looking for that volume to continue higher this week and send EAT back up in this breakout move. Outstanding money flow is leading the way higher.
Volume: 687.1K Avg Volume: 774.2K
BUY POINT: $40.38 Volume=1.2M Target=$46.42 Stop=$39.37
POSITION: EAT JH - Oct. $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/eat.html
Continuing Plays:
Play Date: 06/28/2005
EQT (Equitable Resources--$68.63; +0.63; optionable): Gas utilities. Forecast 7-28-05.
BACKGROUND: Last split 2:1 on 4-20-01 at $76.10
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eqt.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Utilities continue to outperform and EQT is straining to continue its move higher after a lateral move that followed its strong breakout in late May. To recap: EQT broke out from a six month trading range between 56 and 61 to end May, surging on very strong volume. It has rallied to 68 and then stalled out for the past three weeks on lower volume. Volume started to creep higher to end last week. Want to see strong volume as it continues the breakout move after this first test. Like the fact that it did not give up any ground on the test, instead holding its gains.
Volume: 198.9K Avg Volume: 340.317K
BUY POINT: $68.75 Volume=450K Target=$77.35 Stop=$67.39
POSITION: EQT LN - Dec. $70c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/eqt.html
The following plays showed little change from the last write up last week and just need to make the move higher to give us the entry points.
POT:
Play Date: 06/22/2005
POT (Potash--$96.06; +0.48; optionable): nonmetallic minerals mining. Forecast to announce a split 7-28-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 7-21-04 at $91.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pot.html
STATUS: Looks ready to continue its breakout move now that it has fully filled the gap. From Thursday report: Breakout test. Still in the breakout test, holding the 18 day EMA (94.79) on continued below average volume. Started to move higher Thursday but could not hold the gains. Still solid and just being patient as we wait for that high volume rally. To recap: POT blasted higher a week back, breaking out of a 14 week cup with handle base sporting solid 4 to 3 accumulation when it increased its earnings guidance. It rallied to 106 and then tested the move, coming back to tap at the 10 and 18 day EMA on lower, below average volume. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout. Looking to move in as it continues higher.
Volume: 73.2K Avg Volume: 458.824K
BUY POINT: $97.55 Volume=719K Target=$107 Stop=$94.88
POSITION: POT IT - Sept. $100c (49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pot.html
Play Date: 06/30/2005
GOOG (Google--$291.25; -2.9; optionable): Internet search. Forecast 7-21-05 with earnings.
BACKGROUND: No splits. Some say GOOG is not going to split. On the other hand it conducted a dutch auction to give the little guy a shot at the IPO. Seems the head Googs would want to get the price back down, but they also want to beat Amazon's high over 500.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/goog.html
After Hours: $290.81
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. A bit weaker Friday as it moved toward the 18 day EMA, but volume was down. Just setting up better for the move back up. To recap: Looking for another quick run from GOOG as it tests toward the 18 day EMA (287.23) after it rallied to $310 and has made a nice test of that move. It can run fast when it gets started, and we are looking at another bump higher here to make some good money once more.
Volume: 9.235M Avg Volume: 13.65M
BUY POINT: $295.25 Volume=20M Target=$314 Stop=$291.25
POSITION: GGD IR - Sept. $290c (50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/goog.html
ENR: Bounced off the 50 day EMA last week and is holding the 18 day EMA after making a higher low and setting up the next move higher in the breakout.
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/16/2005
USPI (United Surgical--$51.93; -0.15; optionable): Specialized health services. Splits 3:2 on 7-18-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uspi.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice doji over the 18 day EMA (51.55) Friday as volume moved up to just about average. Trying to make a higher low that will set up the next move higher. Solid leader getting ready to make its move. To recap: USPI has tested the strong late May and early June move. It was a bit rocky, but held the 18 day EMA on the close on very low, below average volume. Money flow continues moving higher ahead of the stock even as it eases back and tests the move. Held 50 as we wanted and now looks ready to move. Really like that money flow and waiting for the stock to follow it.
Volume: 264.193K Avg Volume: 299.492K
BUY POINT: $52.55 Volume=400K Target=$59.95 Stop=$50.97
POSITION: QPJ KK - Nov. $55c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uspi.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/30/2005
IMDC (Inamed--$67.36; +0.36; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/imdc.html
STATUS: Cup. Creeping higher Friday toward the buy point but volume fell well below average after the solid surge Thursday. Want to see that strong volume as it continues higher to open a position. Solid leader; just needs more volume. To recap: IMDC is moving higher on stronger volume, building the right side of its 19 week base. Used the 200 day SMA (61.38) as support for the pattern, an important institutional level. IMDC is moving into its split range again, but for now we are interested in the nice run higher that is forming the rest of the pattern. Looking to start positions on a further move upside with some good volume. Solid leader ready to complete the base that will take it to a new all-time high.
Volume: 317.494K Avg Volume: 771.965K
BUY POINT: $67.38 Volume=900K Target=$75.75 Stop=$65.22
POSITION: UZI JM - Oct. $65c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/imdc.html
Play Date: 06/29/2005
OPTN (Option Care--$14.23; +0.13; optionable): Home Health Care
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/optn.html
After Hours: $14.23
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Another nice doji that tapped the 18 day EMA (14.02) on the Friday low and rebounded for a gain. Still in the nice handle to its nice base. Just need to add volume on the move through the buy point that takes it out of the base. To recap: Volume has trailed off the past week as OPTN continues to work on the three week handle to its 12 week base. Split in early April and fell into the current base, holding roughly along the 50 day EMA (13.76) as it formed up the pattern. Positive 3 to 2 accumulation during the base (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) is setting up the breakout. Good move off the 50 day EMA Tuesday, and looking for OPTN to give us a breakout move.
Volume: 151.108K Avg Volume: 379.109K
BUY POINT: $14.62 Volume=569K Target=$17 Stop=$13.75
POSITION: UOB JC - Oct. $15c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/optn.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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