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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ASTM; CHT; DO; DVN; PUMP
Best Plays:
1) GIGM: Strong trade as it moves toward the breakout.
2) XTO: Strong leader making the breakout move.
3) CDIS: Set up nicely to continue the breakout.
4) PPD: Very nice test of the breakout leaves it ready to move this week.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 07/02/2005
GIGM (Gigamedia--$2.30; +0.16; no options): Internet Service Providers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gigm.html
After Hours: $2.30
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume surged Friday as GIGM bounced off the 18 day EMA (2.10), the support that acted as the bottom of the handle to the 7 month base. The pattern formed over the 200 day SMA (1.60), a key support level. Accumulation is an outstanding 8 to 2 (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume), setting up the breakout as it shows a lot of buyers moving into and holding onto the stock. Strong volume in June as it surged to form the right side of the base and then below average volume as it tested that move. Strong money flow as well, leading the move higher. Very solid and looks ready to make the breakout move.
Volume: 1.991M Avg Volume: 832.143K
BUY POINT: $2.47 Volume=1M Target=$3.05 Stop=$2.32
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gigm.html
Play Date: 07/02/2005
IRIS (Iris Intl.--$17.99; +0.19; optionable): Vitro diagnostic equipment, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iris.html
After Hours: $18.01
STATUS: Breakout test. IRIS rallied March to June, from 10 to 19. It is now testing that move, coming back to the 50 day EMA (16.57) last week. Unlike the market it bounces on much better volume and the eased back to the 18 day EMA (17.60) at the end of the week to test and hold the move. Money flow continues to rise ahead of price as IRIS makes this test. A very good indication and looking for the stock to hold the 18 day EMA and renew its breakout move.
Volume: 65.999K Avg Volume: 362.058K
BUY POINT: $18.55 Volume=500K Target=$22.25 Stop=$17.48
POSITION: JGU JW - Oct. $17.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/iris.html
Play Date: 07/02/2005
THQI (THQ, Inc.--$29.23; -0.04; optionable): Interactive entertainment software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/thqi.html
After Hours: $29
STATUS: Breakout test. THQI is at the 18 day EMA (29.05), testing the breakout from a 4.5 month reverse head and shoulders base. The stock broke higher mid-June on very strong volume, moving to a 3 year high. Nice low volume test is underway, holding at an important near support level for a breakout. Strong money flow is leading higher, and after this dip to test the breakout we are looking for THQI to continue the breakout move. Excellent 6 to 2 accumulation in the base shows plenty of buying as well, further setting up the continuation of the breakout run.
Volume: 352.256K Avg Volume: 646.974K
BUY POINT: $30.18 Volume=970K Target=$36 Stop=$28.89
POSITION: QHI LF - Dec. $30c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/thqi.html
Play Date: 07/02/2005
XTO (XTO Energy--$35.23; +1.24; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
After Hours: $35.24
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Another energy stock that has set up well and is starting the breakout move as oil continues to hold stubbornly higher. XTO split in early March and then fell into the current 12 week base. Outstanding 7 to 1 accumulation shows a lot of buying in this strong energy stock as it prepares for the breakout to another all-time high. A frequent splitter, XTO is good to own because it runs higher and splits, building up your share position for things such as covered call sales when it peaks and starts to head into a base. Looking to move in as it continues higher and would like to see some more volume as it does.
Volume: 2.82M Avg Volume: 3.126M
BUY POINT: $35.39 Volume=4.7M Target=$41.22 Stop=$33.78
POSITION: XTO KG - Nov. $35c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/xto.html
New Downside Play:
Play Date: 07/02/2005
IFF (International Flavors & Fragrances--$36.30; +0.08; optionable): Flavors and fragrances for consumer products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iff.html
STATUS: Put. IFF has trended lower all year, bouncing down the 18 day EMA (36.63) in a steady, continuing move lower. When a stock is in this kind of downtrend it will bounce up to the 50 day EMA (37.45) after four or so bounces down from that resistance. In mid-June it rallied to the 50 day but failed; that move reset the clock on the bounces lower below resistance. It sold off from that move but has rebounded back to the 18 day EMA. Showing a doji at that level to end last week, and that indicates the downtrend is ready to start once more. A move down to the target lands us a 50%is gain.
Volume: 311.4K Avg Volume: 426.595K
BUY POINT: $36.18 Volume=445K Target=$34.68 Stop=$36.72
POSITION: IFF TG - Aug. $35c (-30 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/iff.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Upside:
Not yet entered:
Play Date: 06/27/2005
ATAC (Aftermarket Tech--$17.43; 0; no options): Aftermarket auto parts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atac.html
After Hours: $17.46
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Low volume to end the week as ATAC tried to rally but did not get the volume to really push it. Still a sweet pattern and looking for ATAC to give us some volume this week and the breakout move. To recap: Very nice two week handle has formed to the 7 month base. Moving up the 10 day EMA (17.05). Nice base sporting outstanding 7 to 1 accumulation (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume). Used the 200 day SMA (15.11) as support for the two legs down. Strong money flow is pointing the way.
Volume: 75.785K Avg Volume: 143.186K
BUY POINT: New: $17.57 (orig. $17.35) Volume=229K Target=$20.45 Stop=$16.35
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/atac.html
Play Date: 06/27/2005
CDIS (Cal Dive--$52.38; +0.01; optionable): Oil and gas equipment and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cdis.html
After Hours: $52.46
STATUS: Breakout test. Cup w/handle. Very nice tight range to end the week, holding the 10 day EMA (51.81). Setting up for the move and looks nice. To recap: CDIS is knocking at the door of a breakout from its 16 week base. Gapped higher two weeks back and came back to test, holding the 10 day EMA but not filling the gap. Solid 6 to 4 accumulation in the pattern shows net buying. Relative strength broke out on the move, and volume has been strong on the upside sessions as it makes its big moves. Looks great and ready to continue its breakout move.
Volume: 541.388K Avg Volume: 578.152K
BUY POINT: $53.38 Volume=800K Target=$60 Stop=$50.95
POSITION: KPQ IJ - Sept. $50c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cdis.html
Play Date: 06/30/2005
KOMG (Komag--$28.28; -0.08; optionable): PC hardware: data storage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/komg.html
After Hours: $28.28
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Still holding over the 50 day EMA (27.17), basically flat Friday on no volume. Set up well to continue the breakout move but again want to see it move through the 18 day EMA (28.61) before we move in. To recap: Made us some solid money earlier in the year. KOMG broke out and rallied but then peaked out at 32 in early June. It has come back to test the 50 day EMA the past three weeks, holding at that level and then rebounding last Thursday on very strong volume. A strong stock will run up the 10 and 18 day EMA and then need a breather at the 50 day to reset and then continue the run. Looks as if KOMG is ready to do that with money flow turning back up ahead of the stock.
Volume: 509.294K Avg Volume: 816.251K
BUY POINT: $28.75 Volume=1.2M Target=$34.45 Stop=$27.75
POSITION: QKX LE - Dec. $25c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/komg.html
Play Date: 06/29/2005
PPD (Pre-Paid Legal--$44.8; +0.15; optionable): Legal services on an insurance payment basis
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ppd.html
STATUS: Breakout test. A couple of nice tight dojis above the 10 day EMA (43.98) on low volume to end the week leaves PPD in a good position to continue the breakout move this coming week. Want to see the volume pick up to enter as it heads higher this week. To recap: PPD surged out of a 6 month saucer base sporting excellent 8 to 2 accumulation (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume). That sets up the breakout and the following run. It surged over 46 and has spent the past week testing that move, holding the 10 day EMA.
Volume: 35.2K Avg Volume: 105K
BUY POINT: New $45.35 (orig. $44.72) Volume=165K Target=$52.42 Stop=$43.39
POSITION: PPD KV - Nov. $42.50c (65 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ppd.html
Play Date: 06/29/2005
TXN (Texas Instruments--$28.03; -0.04; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/txn.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Low volume and a few nice tight dojis to end last week sets TXN up for a break higher and a breakout in the near future. Great action in a weak market, holding its base and its gains; those are attributes we love to see. Being patient and waiting for the breakout move. To recap: An oldie but one that has set up a good pattern over the past 4 months as it rides up the 50 day EMA (27.09). TXN is showing some good volume spikes as it moves in a tight range the past five weeks, holding the 18 day EMA (27.81). Solid 5 to 3 accumulation is setting up the move. Again, just waiting to see volume jump as TXN makes a breakaway move.
Volume: 5.332M Avg Volume: 12.112M
BUY POINT: $28.72 Volume=18M Target=$33.35 Stop=$27.55
POSITION: TXN AY - Jan. $27.50c (85 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/txn.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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