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world stock market, us stock market
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: EPAY; ICON; INFY; KOMG; SMTS; SOSA
Best Plays:
1) RATE: Great volume as it readies for the breakout.
2) MRVL: Looking good off of the 50 day EMA and breakout test.
3) BSX: Turning back down at the 50 day EMA.
4) GSIC: Strong volume as GSIC starts toward the breakout.
5) FDX: Ready to turn down at the 10 day EMA and continue the selling.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 07/06/2005
BJS (BJ Services--$54.08; -0.77; optionable): Oil and gas equipment & services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bjs.html
After Hours: $54.08
STATUS: Ascending triangle. A big price move Tuesday with the rest of the energy stocks but no volume. It faded back Wednesday as the energy stocks did so across the board. Moving toward the breakout from a 9 month base sporting 9 to 6 accumulation (9 up price weeks on rising volume to 6 down price weeks on rising volume) that has set up the breakout move. Need to see the volume ratchet up as BJS makes the move toward the breakout.
Volume: 1.72M Avg Volume: 2.442M
BUY POINT: $54.38 Volume=2.8M Target=$61 Stop=$53.12
POSITION: BJS JK - Oct. $55c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bjs.html
Play Date: 07/06/2005
MRVL (Marvell Technology--$39.71; +0.53; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrvl.html
After Hours: $39.77
STATUS: Breakout test. While the market struggled Wednesday, MRVL continued a jump up off the 50 day EMA (38.34) and the highs from its 10 week base it broke out of in mid-May. Strong volume on the breakout and then a nice, low volume pullback to test that move the past 5 weeks. Volume has started higher the past two sessions as MRVL started off the 50 day. Solid money flow. Looking for a bit more volume as it continues higher on the rebound move.
Volume: 2.682M Avg Volume: 3.58M
BUY POINT: $40.11 Volume=3.8M Target=$45.35 Stop=$38.74
POSITION: UVM KH - Nov. $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mrvl.html
Play Date: 07/06/2005
RATE (Bankrate--$20.41; +0.24; no options): Internet based financial products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rate.html
After Hours: $20.46
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume has started higher the past two weeks as RATE runs up toward the breakout from its 6 month base. This is part of a larger 21 month reverse head and shoulders. Strong 7 to 3 accumulation in the smaller pattern (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume) shows good accumulation and is setting up the breakout move. Indeed Wednesday it was starting on the move but stalled out and faded back, giving most of the gain away by the close. Looking solid as its sets up for the breakout to a new all-time high.
Volume: 347.636K Avg Volume: 145.795K
BUY POINT: $20.62 Volume=219K Target=$23.74 Stop=$19.27
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rate.html
New Downside Plays:
Play Date: 07/06/2005
BSX (Boston Scientific--$28.00; -0.60; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bsx.html
STATUS: Put. BSX is in the throes of a 13 month downtrend that finds resistance at the 50 day EMA (28.78). It gapped higher Tuesday on strong volume to test the 50 day but failed to break through. Wednesday it was down once more, holding just above the 10 day EMA (27.84). Looks ready to continue the downtrend. Ready to move in on a move below the 10 day. A run to the target lands us a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 5.969M Avg Volume: 4.667M
BUY POINT: $27.79 Volume=5M Target=$25.75 Stop=$28.12
POSITION: BSX TF - Aug. $30p (-70 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bsx.html
Play Date: 07/06/2005
SBUX (Starbucks--$50.58; -1.4; optionable): High priced coffee on every corner
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sbux.html
After Hours: $50.60
STATUS: Put. SBUX is working in a big 6 month base. It rallied from April to early June, but there it hit resistance at 56 and has rolled over. It broke through the 200 day SMA (53) in late June, tested the breach, then failed. Wednesday it rolled over on heavy volume after a modest test of the 10 day EMA (52.16) failed. It may form something of a reverse head and shoulders base, but we want to make a good gain as it continues lower in the potential pattern. Looking to move in as it continues lower. A move to the target lands us a 42% gain.
Volume: 4.495M Avg Volume: 3.582M
BUY POINT: $50.45 Volume=3.6M Target=$48.74 Stop=$50.77
POSITION: SQX TJ - Aug. $50p (-42 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sbux.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Upside:
Not yet entered:
Play Date: 06/13/2005
GSIC (GSI Commerce--$17.58; +0.09; optionable): E-commerce solutions for retailers, sports organizations, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gsic.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume was up above average Wednesday as GSIC jumped to 18.30 on the high, starting the breakout move from its 6 month base. It oculd not hold the move into the close given the overall market selling, but it is one of those leaders that held up very well. Solid base that formed using the 50 and 200 day SMA as support. Nice handle the past three weeks has formed using the 18 day EMA (16.84) as its support. Strong money flow is leading higher. Looks ready for the breakout move to stick.
Volume: 462.458K Avg Volume: 301.572K
BUY POINT: $17.81 Volume=500K Target=$21.25 Stop=$16.65
POSITION: UGF JW - Oct. $17.50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gsic.html
Play Date: 07/02/2005
THQI (THQ, Inc.--$30.64; +0.84; optionable): Interactive entertainment software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/thqi.html
After Hours: $30.60
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice price move Wednesday, and though volume was higher it was still below average. Want to see the volume continue to improve on a further move. To recap: THQI bounced off the 18 day EMA (29.29) this week after testing the breakout from a 4.5 month reverse head and shoulders base. The stock broke higher mid-June on very strong volume, moving to a 3 year high. Nice low volume test is underway, holding at an important near support level for a breakout. Strong money flow is leading higher, and after this dip to test the breakout THQI looks ready to continue the breakout move. Excellent 6 to 2 accumulation in the base shows plenty of buying as well, further setting up the continuation of the breakout run.
Volume: 616.784K Avg Volume: 645.666K
BUY POINT: New: $30.88 (orig. $30.18) Volume=970K Target=$36.68 Stop=$28.89
POSITION: QHI LF - Dec. $30c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/thqi.html
Downside:
Play Date: 06/30/2005
FDX (Federal Express--$82.29; -0.71; optionable): Overnight delivery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdx.html
STATUS: Put. After that nasty drop in late June FDX has fought back but on lower volume. It has run into the 10 day EMA (82.88), and in a show of massive weakness that initial resistance has stalled it. Looks ready to fall back down. To recap: Volumes are down all over the world with the shippers and FDX is not immune. It based in January and February but collapsed. It tested the 200 day SMA up over 90 in early June, failed, tested the 50 day EMA and failed, and now has tested the 10 day EMA and is failing here. Ready to move in for a downside play on a continued drop. A move to the target lands us a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 1.872M Avg Volume: 2.094M
BUY POINT: $81.88 Volume=2.7M Target=$78.54 Stop=$83.15
POSITION: FDX TQ - Aug. $85p (-68 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fdx.html
Play Date: 06/25/2005
IDXC (IDX Systems--$30.50; -0.46; optionable): Healthcare information software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idxc.html
STATUS: Put. IDXC continues to struggle every time it reaches up to the 50 day EMA (31.03), and this move is no exception. It rallied the past three weeks from a mid-June dump lower, but the recovery has been on very low, below average volume. Tuesday it surged up to the 50 day but Wednesday it turned back over, both sessions on low, below average volume. It managed to hold the 10 day EMA (30.38) on the close, but looking for it to break back through that level to the downside on improving trade. That is when we move in for the play. A move to the target lands us a 43%ish gain.
Volume: 156.746K Avg Volume: 271.442K
BUY POINT: New: $30.22 (orig. $29.94) Volume=300K Target=$28.42 Stop=$30.38
POSITION: XQW TF - Aug. $30p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/idxc.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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