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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good Movers: AGP; BBY; BEN; CNC; COH; FLO; FRK; IMGC; MSCC; POT; RMD; USPI
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 07/09/2005
CWTR (Coldwater Creek--$23.8; +0.62; optionable): Retail: catalog & mail order
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cwtr.html
STATUS: Breakout test. CWTR broke out from an 11 week cup with handle base to end May. An explosive, high volume move sent it to 24, up 4 points. It is making the second test of that breakout, coming back from quick run to 26, holding the 18 day EMA (23.16) on last week's selling. A market leader and frequent stock splitter, CWTR is giving us a good entry point here on this pullback. Just looking for some stronger volume as it continues back up after this test.
Volume: 558.474K Avg Volume: 431.198K
BUY POINT: $24.14 Volume=647K Target=$28.35 Stop=$23.12
POSITION: CWK JY - Oct. $23.375c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cwtr.html
Play Date: 07/09/2005
RESP (Respironics--$37.52; +0.66; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/resp.html
After Hours: $37.47
STATUS: Flying plateau. RESP broke out in April and rallied up the 18 day EMA (36.15). It split in early June, and that gave it a further boost. It has spent the past 5 weeks consolidating that move, holding over the 18 day and refusing to give up its gains as the market struggled, a sign of leadership strength. Thursday and Friday it started toward the next breakout run with volume moving back above average Friday. Money flow is leading higher and we are ready to move in as RESP follows in on continued good trade.
Volume: 415.229K Avg Volume: 395.4K
BUY POINT: $37.63 Volume=593K Target=$43 Stop=$36.32
POSITION: RBQ JG - Oct. $35c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/resp.html
Play Date: 07/09/2005
WCN (Waste Connections--$38.06; +0.61; optionable): Waste Management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wcn.html
STATUS: Breakout test. This is getting into split range again, but for now it is a good post-split. A neat little reverse head and shoulders base has formed the past 5 weeks using the 50 day EMA (36.71) as support. This is the test of a breakout from an 18 week cup with handle base sporting strong 10 to 5 accumulation. Started higher on rising, above average volume Friday, moving it toward the next breakout and another new all-time high for this leader.
Volume: 290.2K Avg Volume: 251.6K
BUY POINT: $38.42 Volume=365K Target=$43.45 Stop=$37.21
POSITION: WCN JG - Oct. $35c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wcn.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all positions but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
BEN: Forecast 7-28-05
CDIS: Forecast mid-July
CETV: Researching to pinpoint the date.
CI: Tentatively forecast in early August.
CTSH: Forecast 7-12-05. Just about ready.
DNA: Forecast 7-6-05. No split announcement from this leader but a very nice move for us on Thursday.
EAT: Forecast tentatively 8-11-05. Not doing it for now.
ENR: Forecast 7-28-05
EQT: Forecast 7-28-05
EXBD: Forecast 7-24-05
FO: Forecast 7-22-05
GOOG: Forecast 7-21-05
GPN: Forecast 7-20-05
HOC: Forecast mid-August
IVGN: Researching to pinpoint a date.
IVX: Forecast 7-14-05
KSWS: Forecast 7-22-05. Needs to form up better. Will pick it back up when the pattern improves.
LM: Forecast 7-21-05
MHS: Forecast 7-26-05
MRVL: Researching to pinpoint a date.
PHS: Getting bought out by UNH so won't be any split.
RMD: Forecast mid-August
RYN: Forecast 7-26-2005
SHLD: Forecast 7-21-05
SIE: Forecast 7-25-05
STN: Forecast 7-28-05
TRMB: Forecast 7-21-05
TSCO: Forecast 7-13-05
URBN: Forecast 7-12-05
VLO: Forecast 7-14-05
WFMI: Forecast in late July.
YUM: Forecast 7-13-05
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 07/09/2005
CTSH (Cognizant Technology--$48.45; +1; optionable): Business software. Forecast 7-12-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctsh.html
After Hours: $48.45
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. New buy point on a continuing play. CTSH is coming off of the 50 day EMA (46.49) that acted as support for the right side or the shoulder of the 17 week pattern that is setting up the breakout to a new all-time high. Positive 5 to 3 accumulation in the base (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buyers and is setting up the breakout. Used the 50 day EMA as support, a good indication of continued institutional interest. Started higher Friday, but needs some more volume as it moves to the buy point.
Volume: 1.021M Avg Volume: 1.628M
BUY POINT: $48.65 Volume=2.4M Target=$54.85 Stop=$47.31
POSITION: UPU JI - Oct. $45c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ctsh.html
Play Date: 07/09/2005
TRMB (Trimble Navigation--$39.95; +0.83; optionable): Scientiic & technical instruments. Forecast early August.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 2-3-04 at $38.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trmb.html
After Hours: $39.93
STATUS: Breakout test. TRMB formed a volatile double bottom base March through May, breaking out in mid-May. It rallied to 41 and the slipped into the current 6 week breakout test, a more or less lateral move over the 18 day EMA (38.94). Strong 5 to 1 accumulation shows plenty of buying during the consolidation. Good move Friday, pushing it up toward the late June highs that mark next resistance. Looking for volume to surge as it continues higher and through that resistance point.
Volume: 249.435K Avg Volume: 379.552K
BUY POINT: $40.32 Volume=500K Target=$45.45 Stop=$38.88
POSITION: TUH KH - Nov. $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/trmb.html
Continuing Plays:
Play Date: 07/02/2005
EAT (Brinker Intl.--$40.19; +0.69; optionable): Restaurants (Chili's, Romano's, On the Boarder, etc.). Kind of a wild card at this time of the year and tentatively forecast for 8-11-05, but a great pattern has set up.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 12-9-00 at $41.00.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eat.html
STATUS: Got a bit dicey last week but made a comeback Friday, recovering the 18 day EMA (39.89) though on continued low volume. It has managed to hold the March highs at the top of the base, testing but holding the breakout. Looking for volume to rally as the stock starts back up and continues the breakout. To recap: EAT exploded higher in early June when it raised its earnings outlook. The consumer is confident and spending money for now, and EAT is benefiting accordingly. After that big blast higher EAT has come back to test the move, holding at the 18 day EMA on lower, below average volume. It held the 18 day and just over the February and March highs on the test, a good indication it is going to hold and rebound to continue the breakout move. Nice 17 week base formed using the 200 day SMA (35.76) on the low and sporting solid positive 3:2 accumulation. Looking for volume to move higher and send EAT back up in this breakout move. Outstanding money flow is leading the way higher.
Volume: 454.3K Avg Volume: 760.792K
BUY POINT: $40.38 Volume=1.2M Target=$46.42 Stop=$39.37
POSITION: EAT JH - Oct. $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/eat.html
Play Date: 06/25/2005
ENR (Energrizer Holdings--$63.34; +1.28; optionable): Batteries, etc. Forecast to announce a split 7-28-05
BACKGROUND: No splits yet in ENR's five year history as a publicly traded stock on its own.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/enr.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Starting the move off of the 50 day EMA (61.51) but volume is not moving with it just yet. A strong leader, however, and looking form some more trade as it continues up off of the 50 day. To recap: ENR broke out from a 14 week flat base in mid-May, rallying to 64.50 on the move. It has spent this month coming back to test the break higher, tapping at the 50 day EMA on thepast two weeks. Outstanding 5 to 1 accumulation in the pattern shows a lot of buyers stepping in as the stock consolidates. Strong money flow has turned back up ahead of the stock on this dip. Looking for continued solid volume as ENR continues the jump off the 50 day EMA.
Volume: 214.7K Avg Volume: 388.174K
BUY POINT: $63.48 Volume=450K Target=$70 Stop=$61.45
POSITION: ENR KL - Nov. $60c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/enr.html
Play Date: 07/06/2005
MRVL (Marvell Technology--$39.91; +0.09; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits. Forecast mid-August.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 2-26-04 at $42.90.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrvl.html
After Hours: $39.10
STATUS: Breakout test. MRVL is another leader that has come back during the market selling to test its breakout, holding key support at the 50 day EMA (38.46) last week and then bouncing. Nice breakout from its 10 week cup base and now a good test. Just need to see more volume come in as MRVL makes the rebound off this key support to continue the breakout move. Strong 5 to 1 accumulation in the base shows plenty of buying in the consolidation,setting up the next run higher.
Volume: 2.416M Avg Volume: 3.59M
BUY POINT: $40.11 Volume=3.8M Target=$45.35 Stop=$38.74
POSITION: UVM KH - Nov. $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mrvl.html
Play Date: 06/28/2005
URBN (Urban Outfitters--$58.29; +0.38; optionable): Apparel stores. Forecast to announce a split on 7-12-05
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 6-1-04 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting. The stock price was $54.54 at the time of announcement. Prior to that announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-14-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $46.50. The annual share holder meeting is scheduled for 5-24-056-1-04 at
10:30 ET.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urbn.html
After Hours: $58.43
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. URBN continues to work laterally with a narrowing trading range, a good sign for the next move higher. Volume started to creep higher to end last week as URBN tapped and held the 18 day EMA (57.38) once more. It has been stingy with its gains, refusing to give in when the market was selling. That is a good sign for the breakout to come. To recap: This is the second test of the 18 day EMA after URBN broke higher in mid-May from a 6.5 month trading range/flat base that formed over the 50 day EMA (54.42). Strong money flow is pointing the way and relative strength is ready for another breakout. Strong stock and looking to move in with some more positions as it continued on volume.
Volume: 1.061M Avg Volume: 1.209M
BUY POINT: $58.89 Volume=1.5M Target=$67.55 Stop=$56.55
POSITION: URQ LL - Dec. $60c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/urbn.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/07/2005
HCC (HCC Insurance Holdings--$39.27; +0.32; optionable): P&C Insurance. Splits 3:2 on 7-18-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hcc.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. HCC was moving higher Friday, but volume was not, fading back to well below average. This is a similar pattern in many stocks: breakout in late May and June and then a test of that breakout back at the 50 day EMA (38.35). Nice pattern and just need some volume on the way back up. To recap: Good volume Thursday as HCC tapped the 50 day EMA on the low and rebounded to post a modest gain. It has slipped back to the 50 day over the past 6 weeks after a mid-June move higher out of its 10 week cup base. Good test, good set up for a pre-split run. Money flow is moving higher ahead of price, leading the way. HCC looks ready to follow.
Volume: 205.5K Avg Volume: 373.686K
BUY POINT: $39.22 Volume=475K Target=$44.12 Stop=$38.54
POSITION: HCC KH - Nov. $40c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hcc.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/02/2005
ANSS (Ansys--$36.22; +1.24; optionable): Engineering simulation software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anss.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Good jump off the 50 day EMA (34.51) Friday though volume was not there just yet. ANSS continues its lateral move over this key support level, forming the handle to its nicely formed based. Great money flow and looks ready to make the break higher this week. To recap: A top rated stock, ANSS is forming the handle to an 18 week base that formed roughly around the 50 day EMA as it consolidates a strong 2004 run and sets up for the breakout to a new all-time high. Good rally on volume in mid-June and then a pullback to the 50 day EMA to form the handle. Strong 5 to 2 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) has set up the breakout move. Solid money flow is support the move as well. Now just need to see some volume as it makes the breakout move.
Volume: 142.857K Avg Volume: 209.694K
BUY POINT: $36.35 Volume=316K Target=$42 Stop=$34.88
POSITION: QUS JG - Oct. $35c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anss.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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