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world stock market, us stock market
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: A few. BGC; GIGM; IDIX; IVGN; KOMG; NSM; RATE; SMTS; SOSA; USPI; WFR; WIND
Best Plays:
1) MLHR: Nicely formed base from this leader.
2) NTGR: Has formed up well again so taking another run at it.
3) RTSX: Little known but showing a lot of positive volume.
4) CCC: Just taking a breather before resuming.
5) IRIS: The pullback looks just about complete.
6) IDXC: Watching for it to fail here at the 50 day EMA.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 07/09/2005
BRCM (Broadcom--$37.66; +1.20; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcm.html
After Hours: $37.59
STATUS: Cup w/handle. BRCM is working in a large 12 month base, spending the last 7 weeks working laterally along the 18 day EMA (36.28) as it sets up a handle for a breakout. Volume jumped up close to average Friday as BRCM moved up off the 18 day EMA and is knocking at the door of a breakout. Positive accumulation in the handle is setting up the breakout move. Plenty of upside as the high in the base is at 46. Just looking for continued improving volume as BRCM continues its move higher.
Volume: 7.009M Avg Volume: 7.54M
BUY POINT: $37.85 Volume=11M Target=$43.89 Stop=$36.42
POSITION: RCQ KT - Nov. $37.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/brcm.html
Play Date: 07/09/2005
FORM (Formfactor--$27.94; +1.12; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/form.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. FORM is just two years old and it is looking for a breakout to take it to a new all-time higher. Nice 7 month base sporting solid 7 to 5 accumulation (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 5 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buying during the consolidation. The pattern formed over the 200 day SMA (24.09), a key support level. Nice move to end the week, coming off the 50 day EMA (26.15) that acted as support for the handle. Looking for volume to climb this week as FORM makes its breakout move.
Volume: 229.089K Avg Volume: 334.757K
BUY POINT: $28.25 Volume=502K Target=$32.75 Stop=$26.82
POSITION: AFU JE - Oct. $25c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/form.html
Play Date: 07/09/2005
MLHR (Herman Miller--$30.65; +0.23; optionable): Business equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mlhr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A nice easy pullback the past two weeks as the market struggled, forming the handle to its 13 week base. The pattern formed using the 50 day EMA more or less as support (29.88), a good indication the big money was hanging onto positions and accumulating more stock. Indeed, the solid 4to 2 accumulation shows the buying. Strong money flow is leading higher, and we are looking for MLHR to follow it. A solid, perennial leader, and a breakout takes it toward a new all-time high.
Volume: 474.281K Avg Volume: 348.661K
BUY POINT: $31.62 Volume=523K Target=$35.98 Stop=$30.38
POSITION: MHQ KF - Nov. $30c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mlhr.html
Play Date: 07/09/2005
NTGR (Netgear--$19.64; +0.43; optionable): Telecom/communication equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntgr.html
After Hours: $19.61
STATUS: Breakout test. NTGR is moving laterally more or less the past 5 weeks, moving on low, below average volume. It made the breakout from a 20 week cup base in mid-May. The base is part of a much larger 22 month reverse head and shoulders pattern that started to form almost immediately after the stock came public in mid-2003. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume) in the current lateral move and 7 to 4 accumulation in the larger base formed this year shows net buying as the stock consolidated and set up the break out. NTGR is starting up off of the test that used the 50 day EMA (18.38) as support in the test. Strong money flow is moving higher ahead of price and we are looking for more volume to come in as it continues higher. That is when we move in.
Volume: 689.9K Avg Volume: 1.092M
BUY POINT: $20.06 Volume=1.4M Target=$23.78 Stop=$18.98
POSITION: TUD LD - Dec. $20c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ntgr.html
Play Date: 07/09/2005
RTSX (Radiation Therapy--$28.10; +1.11; no options): Medical practitioners
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rtsx.html
STATUS: Breakout test. RTSX is a relative newborn as well, going public a year ago. It broke out from a 2.5 month base in mid-June on strong volume, rallying to 28 on the breakout high. A very nice, low volume test the last three weeks has set up the next move in the breakout, and Friday RTSX jumped off the 10 day EMA (26.87) on strong volume, resuming the breakout move. ready to step in on a further move higher on continued strong volume.
Volume: 375.877K Avg Volume: 250.351K
BUY POINT: $28.45 Volume=345K Target=$33 Stop=$26.78
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rtsx.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Upside:
Not yet entered:
Play Date: 07/07/2005
CCC (Calgon Carbon--$9.71; -0.05; no options): Products to purify, separate & concentrate liquids
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ccc.html
STATUS: Test breakout. After the big move early last week, CCC is working laterally, holding its strong break higher on Tuesday. Like that it is holding its move, a sign of its strength. Looking for it to resume the move this week. To recap: Looked at CCC earlier in its 7 month flat base that formed along the 50 day EMA (8.94). Tuesday it blasted higher on volume, making the breakout move. Wednesday was a low volume day of rest and then Thursday CCC was back up, moving on strong volume once more. Strong 10 to 4 accumulation in the base set up the breakout move (10 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume). Great blast off on strong volume and a relative strength breakout, a good corroboration of the move. Strong money flow is leading higher and CCC is rallying to follow it.
Volume: 268.4K Avg Volume: 156.885K
BUY POINT: $9.88 Volume=235K Target=$11.35 Stop=$9.47
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ccc.html
Play Date: 06/13/2005
GSIC (GSI Commerce--$18.1; +0.22; optionable): E-commerce solutions for retailers, sports organizations, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gsic.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. GSIC is moving higher to end the week, but after a good volume surge Wednesday, trade fell back to well below average. Just need to see another good volume push to enter positions. To recap: Volume was up above average Wednesday as GSIC jumped to 18.30 on the high, starting the breakout move from its 6 month base. It could not hold the move into the close given the overall market selling, but it is one of those leaders that held up very well. Solid base that formed using the 50 and 200 day SMA as support. Nice handle the past three weeks has formed using the 18 day EMA (16.84) as its support. Strong money flow is leading higher. Looks ready for the breakout move to stick.
Volume: 134.292K Avg Volume: 308.283K
BUY POINT: $18.17 Volume=500K Target=$21.62 Stop=$17.29
POSITION: UGF JW - Oct. $17.50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gsic.html
Play Date: 07/01/2005
IRIS (Iris Intl.--$17.53; -0.06; optionable): Vitro diagnostic equipment, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iris.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Excellent test is underway as IRIS shows a pair of tight dojis as it tests the 50 day EMA (16.73). Nice, easy test, and now it is ready for the move higher. To recap: IRIS rallied March to June, from 10 to 19. It is now testing that move, coming back to the 50 day EMA last week. Unlike the market it bounces on much better volume and the eased back to the 18 day EMA (17.62) at the end of the week to test and hold the move. Money flow continues to rise ahead of price as IRIS makes this test. A very good indication and looking for the stock to hold the 18 day EMA and renew its breakout move.
Volume: 129.414K Avg Volume: 369.954K
BUY POINT: $18.55 Volume=500K Target=$22.25 Stop=$17.48
POSITION: JGU JW - Oct. $17.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/iris.html
Play Date: 07/06/2005
MRVL (Marvell Technology--$39.91; +0.09; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrvl.html
After Hours: $39.10
STATUS: Breakout test. MRVL is another leader that has come back during the market selling to test its breakout, holding key support at the 50 day EMA (38.46) last week and then bouncing. Nice breakout from its 10 week cup base and now a good test. Just need to see more volume come in as MRVL makes the rebound off this key support to continue the breakout move. Strong 5 to 1 accumulation in the base shows plenty of buying in the consolidation,setting up the next run higher.
Volume: 2.416M Avg Volume: 3.59M
BUY POINT: $40.11 Volume=3.8M Target=$45.35 Stop=$38.74
POSITION: UVM KH - Nov. $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mrvl.html
Downside:
Play Date: 07/06/2005
BSX (Boston Scientific--$27.8; 0; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bsx.html
STATUS: Put. After a test of the 50 day EMA (28.70) last week BSX fell back, showing a pair of dojis right at the 10 day EMA (27.83) to end the week. May bounce up a bit from here but still in the downtrend and ready to continue it. To recap: BSX is in the throes of a 13 month downtrend that finds resistance at the 50 day EMA. It just made a test of the 50 day and dropped, looking for it to resume the move this week. A run to the target lands us a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 3.289M Avg Volume: 4.636M
BUY POINT: $27.79 Volume=5M Target=$25.75 Stop=$28.12
POSITION: BSX TF - Aug. $30p (-70 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bsx.html
Play Date: 06/30/2005
FDX (Federal Express--$83.96; +1.14; optionable): Overnight delivery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdx.html
After Hours: $84.01
STATUS: Put. Rallied up to the 18 day EMA (83.90) Thursday and Friday, Friday showing better volume (average). This is where we want to see if fail given the April lows here at 84 should provide some real resistance. To recap: After that nasty drop in late June FDX has fought back but is at key resistance. Shipping volumes are down all over the world with the shippers and FDX is not immune. It based in January and February but collapsed. It tested the 200 day SMA up over 90 in early June, failed, tested the 50 day EMA and failed, and now it is trying one more time at the 18 day EMA. Ready to move in for a downside play on a continued drop. A move to the target lands us a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 2.316M Avg Volume: 2.124M
BUY POINT: $83.72 Volume=2.7M Target=$80.32 Stop=$84.08
POSITION: FDX TQ - Aug. $85p (-68 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fdx.html
Play Date: 06/25/2005
IDXC (IDX Systems--$30.74; -0.24; optionable): Healthcare information software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idxc.html
STATUS: Put. Really struggling here at the 50 day EMA (31.02), bouncing up and down each session last week. Friday it gapped above the 50 day but then sold off on rising but still quite low volume. It is trying to hold the 18 day EMA (30.49) on the lows; that is what we want to see it break through to enter the play. To recap: IDXC continues to struggle every time it reaches up to the 50 day EMA, and this move is no exception. It rallied the past three weeks from a mid-June dump lower, but the recovery has been on very low, below average volume. Looking for a continued increase in volume as IDXC continues down and through the 18 day EMA. A move to the target lands us a 43%ish gain.
Volume: 175.221K Avg Volume: 270.097K
BUY POINT: New: $30.22 (orig. $29.94) Volume=300K Target=$28.42 Stop=$30.38
POSITION: XQW TF - Aug. $30p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/idxc.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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