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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: BJS; CCC; CDIS; KOMG; IVGN; RATE; SMTS; TXN; USPI; WFR
Best Plays:
1) BOOM: Strong volume as it resumes its breakout move
2) CHRW: Volume is up as it moves toward the new high.
3) MDR: Oil and gas stock ready to move.
4) MFE: Getting some strong volume as it starts higher.
5) RTSX: Still looks ready to move.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 07/11/2005
BOOM (Dynamic Materials--$44; +4.11; no options): Industrial metals (coatings)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/boom.html
After Hours: $44
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume surged Monday as BOOM jumped off the 18 day EMA (39.95) after working through a 6 week lateral consolidation at that near support level, refusing to give back the gains. This consolidation follows the late May breakout from a nice 8 week cup with handle. Strong money flow is leading higher and relative strength is ready for a breakout. High short interest, but also a lot of positive accumulation. Big move Monday, but this stock can string together several such moves back to back.
Volume: 3.111M Avg Volume: 2.103M
BUY POINT: $44.55 Volume=2.6M Target=$53.55 Stop=$42.68
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/boom.html
Play Date: 07/11/2005
CHRW (C.H. Robinson Worldwide--$59.45; +1.49; optionable): Air delivery and freight
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chrw.html
After Hours: $59.41
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Strong volume the past two sessions as CHRW tapped the 50 day EMA (56.37) on the Friday low and reversed. Strong 4 to 0 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume) shows all buying in the current lateral move. This follows the breakout from a 4.5 month double bottom with handle in mid-May; good combination or base on base pattern that really sets up good moves. Strong move Monday following some strong money flow. Looks ready to for the next stage in the move that will take it to a new all-time high.
Volume: 918.968K Avg Volume: 646.238K
BUY POINT: $59.69 Volume=665K Target=$67 Stop=$57.78
POSITION: CJQ KL - Nov. $60c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/chrw.html
Play Date: 07/11/2005
GNSS (Genesis Microchip--$20.38; +0.99; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gnss.html
After Hours: $20.47
STATUS: Breakout. GNSS is surging on strong volume, making the breakout from its 7.5 month cup with handle base. This is actually the second move; it broke out in early June, moved laterally for four weeks to consolidate, and then surged Monday on volume. Solid 10 to 6 accumulation in the base shows net buying. This is part of a much longer, 2.5 year trading range, and this move is starting to break it out of this range. Strong money flow is surging higher and relative strength is making a breakout. Looking to start positions as it continues this breakout move.
Volume: 1.65M Avg Volume: 804.498K
BUY POINT: $20.57 Volume=1M Target=$24.55 Stop=$19.54
POSITION: QFE LD - Dec. $20c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gnss.html
Play Date: 07/11/2005
MDR (McDermott Intl.--$22.07; +0.42; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mdr.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Volume has started to kick up the past week as MDR starts toward the high in its 12 week base that has formed roughly at the 50 day EMA (20.92). Solid 5 to 3 accumulation in the pattern is setting up the next breakout. Need to see the volume kick up even more as it makes the breakout move. One of the energy stocks that held up well during the recent energy pullback. Nice and looks ready.
Volume: 331.4K Avg Volume: 871.332K
BUY POINT: $22.42 Volume=1.3M Target=$26.55 Stop=$21.12
POSITION: MDR KX - Nov. $22.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mdr.html
Play Date: 07/11/2005
MFE (Network Associates--$28.71; +0.91; optionable): Security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mfe.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume has jumped the past two sessions, coming in well above average. A big leader with a strong October to December run that needed a rest. This base has set up the next move. Nice low volume in the 5 week handle is just the action you want to see as is the volume surge as it comes off of the bottom of the handle. Nice pattern with positive accumulation. Looking for continued volume as it continues higher.
Volume: 3.122M Avg Volume: 2.124M
BUY POINT: $28.88 Volume=2.5M Target=$33.21 Stop=$27.12
POSITION: MFE LE - Dec. $25c (70 delta) or MFE LF - Dec. $30c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mfe.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Upside: Some choice plays that look ready to move.
Not yet entered:
Play Date: 07/06/2005
MRVL (Marvell Technology--$40.23; +0.32; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrvl.html
After Hours: $40.23
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume jumped to above average Monday as it pauses after a good move off the 50 day EMA (38.53). Still looking for the clear break higher on continued strong volume. To recap: While the market struggled last week, MRVL continued a jump up off the 50 day EMA and the highs from its 10 week base it broke out of in mid-May. Strong volume on the breakout and then a nice, low volume pullback to test that move the past 5 weeks. Volume has started higher the past two sessions as MRVL started off the 50 day. Solid money flow. Looking for a bit more volume as it continues higher on the rebound move.
Volume: 3.414M Avg Volume: 3.592M
BUY POINT: New: $40.48 (orig $40.11) Volume=3.8M Target=$45.35 Stop=$38.74
POSITION: UVM KH - Nov. $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mrvl.html
Play Date: 07/09/2005
NTGR (Netgear--$19.79; +0.15; optionable): Telecom/communication equipment http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntgr.html
After Hours: $19.76
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume is creeping higher, but it still has to show us the next move for us to enter. Still solid and looking for the clear move. To recap: NTGR is moving laterally more or less the past 5 weeks, moving on low, below average volume. It made the breakout from a 20 week cup base in mid-May. The base is part of a much larger 22 month reverse head and shoulders pattern that started to form almost immediately after the stock came public in mid-2003. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume) in the current lateral move and 7 to 4 accumulation in the larger base formed this year shows net buying as the stock consolidated and set up the break out. NTGR is starting up off of the test that used the 50 day EMA (18.43) as support in the test. Strong money flow is moving higher ahead of price and we are looking for more volume to come in as it continues higher. That is when we move in.
Volume: 799.601K Avg Volume: 1.092M
BUY POINT: $20.06 Volume=1.4M Target=$23.78 Stop=$18.98
POSITION: TUD LD - Dec. $20c (54 delta) &/or Stock http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ntgr.html
Play Date: 07/09/2005
RTSX (Radiation Therapy--$28.01; -0.09; no options): Medical practitioners http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rtsx.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume moved back below average Monday as RTSX took the day off, showing a tight doji as it held its gains. Strong move Friday, and ready to step in as RTSX continues the break higher. To recap: RTSX is a relative newborn, going public a year ago. It broke out from a 2.5 month base in mid-June on strong volume, rallying to 28 on the breakout high. A very nice, low volume test the last three weeks has set up the next move in the breakout, and Friday RTSX jumped off the 10 day EMA (27.08) on strong volume, resuming the breakout move. Still ready to step in on a further move higher on continued strong volume.
Volume: 180.292K Avg Volume: 250.351K
BUY POINT: $28.45 Volume=345K Target=$33 Stop=$26.78
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rtsx.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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