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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 07/12/2005
ADCT (ADC Telecom--$22.68; +0.6; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adct.html
After Hours: $22.66
STATUS: Breakout test. ADCT looks ready to continue the breakout rally after a 5 week lateral move over the 18 day EMA (21.53). Accumulation in the lateral move is a positive 2 to 1 (2 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume), showing buyers moving into the stock. This is part of a much larger 18 month double bottom with handle base. Money flow is strong and rallying ahead of the price. Good price move Tuesday but volume has not come with it yet. Looking for that trade as the stock continues higher.
Volume: 1.27M Avg Volume: 1.32M
BUY POINT: $22.79 Volume=1.5M Target=$27 Stop=$21.72
POSITION: TLQ KX - Nov. $22.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/adct.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all positions but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
BEN: Forecast 7-28-05
CDIS: Forecast mid-July
CETV: Researching to pinpoint the date.
CI: Tentatively forecast in early August.
CTSH: Forecast 7-12-05. Now word on a split yet.
DNA: Forecast 7-6-05. Great earnings but no split announced. Stock enjoyed a great day as a result.
EAT: Forecast tentatively 8-11-05
ENR: Forecast 7-28-05
EQT: Forecast 7-28-05
EXBD: Forecast 7-24-05
FO: Forecast 7-22-05
GOOG: Forecast 7-21-05
GPN: Forecast 7-20-05
HOC: Forecast mid-August
IVGN: Researching to pinpoint a date.
IVX: Forecast 7-14-05
KSWS: Forecast 7-22-05. Getting there.
LM: Forecast 7-21-05
MHS: Forecast 7-26-05
MRVL: Researching to pinpoint a date.
RMD: Forecast mid-August
RYN: Forecast 7-26-2005
SHLD: Forecast 7-21-05
SIE: Forecast 7-25-05
STN: Forecast 7-28-05
TRMB: Forecast 7-21-05
TSCO: Forecast 7-13-05. Will see if it rings up another split tomorrow.
URBN: Forecast 7-12-05. No word on a split yet.
VLO: Forecast 7-14-05
WFMI: Forecast in late July.
YUM: Forecast 7-13-05. Decent comeback but not a lot of trade on the rebound. Makes us very wary of this move.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 07/12/2005
LSS (Lone Star Technologies--$48.35; +1.75; optionable): Oil and gas equipment. Wildcard forecast to announce on 7-18-05. Energy is announcing regularly.
BACKGROUND: No split history.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lss.html
STATUS: Cup with handle. Excellent volume the past week as LSS strains for the breakout from the handle to its 18 week base. Nice pattern that has formed using the 200 day SMA on the lows as support. The handle formed using near support at the 18 day EMA (46.55) as its support. Solid accumulation and money flow moving higher ahead of price. After this breather LSS looks ready to resume its break higher.
Volume: 842.1K Avg Volume: 542.626K
BUY POINT: $48.85 Volume=814K Target=$56 Stop=$46.45
POSITION: LSS KI - Nov. $45c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lss.html
Play Date: 07/12/2005
SLB (Schlumberger--$78.91; +0.34; optionable): Oil and gas equipment and services. Forecast 7-22-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: No splits in SLB's history.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slb.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. SLB is trying to make the breakout. It made the break early in this month but volume was not there. It has moved laterally the past week but on very low volume. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buyers in the base. Has to show us some volume as it continues and makes the next breakout move.
Volume: 3.409M Avg Volume: 4.18M
BUY POINT: $79.62 Volume=4.5M Target=$89 Stop=$77.25
POSITION: SLB KP - Nov. $80c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/slb.html
Continuing Plays:
Play Date: 07/09/2005
CTSH (Cognizant Technology--$47.74; -0.94; optionable): Business software. Forecast 7-12-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctsh.html
After Hours: $47.70
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Big volume Tuesday as CTSH reached low and then rebounded for a loss. No announcement yet, but like the dip and recovery as that shakes out the sellers from the 17 week base. Going to watch and see if this was a shakeout that leads to a breakout.
Volume: 3.847M Avg Volume: 1.618M
BUY POINT: $48.65 Volume=2.4M Target=$54.85 Stop=$47.31
POSITION: UPU JI - Oct. $45c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ctsh.html
Play Date: 07/02/2005
EAT (Brinker Intl.--$40.42; +0.1; optionable): Restaurants (Chili's, Romano's, On the Boarder, etc.). Kind of a wild card at this time of the year and tentatively forecast for 8-11-05, but a great pattern has set up.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 12-9-00 at $41.00.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eat.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume is creeping to average as EAT moves up off of the breakout test. It has held the March highs in the pattern and looks ready to follow this strong money flow higher. To recap: EAT exploded higher in early June when it raised its earnings outlook. The consumer is confident and spending money for now, and EAT is benefiting accordingly. After that big blast higher EAT has come back to test the move, holding at the 18 day EMA the past week on lower, below average volume. It held the 18 day and just over the February and March highs on the test, a good indication it is going to hold and rebound to continue the breakout move. Nice 17 week base formed using the 200 day SMA (35.86) on the low and sporting solid positive 3:2 accumulation. Outstanding money flow is leading the way higher.
Volume: 685.2K Avg Volume: 768.767K
BUY POINT: New: $40.62 (orig. $40.38) Volume=1.2M Target=$46.42 Stop=$39.37
POSITION: EAT JH - Oct. $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/eat.html
Play Date: 07/07/2005
FNF (Fidelity National Financial--$37.76; -0.05; optionable): Surety and title insurance. Forecast 7-20-05
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split 1-28-04 at 41.70. Before that it announced 4-23-03 at $35.80.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fnf.html
STATUS: Breakout. Nice test of the breakout move the past three sessions, easing back toward the 10 day EMA (37.07) on lower, below average volume. After this test it will be ready for the buy when it makes the rebound move on rising volume. To recap: FNF broke out from a 12 week double bottom with handle base, surging last Thursday on strong volume. After a 5 week lateral move to test the mid-May breakout this is a good continuation of the breakout move. Nice base that formed using the 200 day SMA (32.65) as support on the lows. Money flow is surging ahead of price and relative strength broke out as well, a good confirmation of the breakout move. Ready to move into positions on s further run higher.
Volume: 582.4K Avg Volume: 1.033M
BUY POINT: $38.15 Volume=1.2M Target=$43.75 Stop=$36.32
POSITION: FNF JG - Oct. $35c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fnf.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/09/2005
CWTR (Coldwater Creek--$23.71; 0; optionable): Catalog and mail order houses
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cwtr.html
After Hours: $23.71
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice, nice test of the late May breakout. It came back to the 50 day EMA (21.42) on the first test in late May and blasted higher on strong volume. It is making the second test of the breakout, holding the 18 day EMA (23.27) on this test. Strong money flow is still leading higher. Nice breakout from a 5 month cup base. Looks very ready to make the rebound move.
Volume: 519.63K Avg Volume: 439.089K
BUY POINT: $24.14 Volume=647K Target=$28.35 Stop=$23.12
POSITION: CWK JY - Oct. $23.375c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cwtr.html
Play Date: 07/06/2005
MRVL (Marvell Technology--$40.69; +0.46; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrvl.html
After Hours: $40.77
STATUS: Breakout test. Good volume the past two sessions as MRVL works higher off of the 50 day EMA (38.61) test. Another good volume session shows plenty of volume build. To recap: While the market struggled Wednesday, MRVL continued a jump up off the 50 day EMA and the highs from its 10 week base it broke out of in mid-May. Strong volume on the breakout and then a nice, low volume pullback to test that move the past 5 weeks. Volume has started higher the past two sessions as MRVL started off the 50 day. Solid money flow. Looking for a bit more volume as it continues higher on the rebound move.
Volume: 3.087M Avg Volume: 3.547M
BUY POINT: New: $40.89 (orig. $40.11) Volume=3.8M Target=$45.35 Stop=$38.74
POSITION: UVM KH - Nov. $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mrvl.html
Play Date: 07/09/2005
RESP (Respironics--$37.23; -0.37; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/resp.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Could not make the next break higher stick this week, showing a doji Monday and fading Tuesday back toward the 10 day EMA (36.81) on continued below average volume. Looks as if it is going to make a full test of the 10 day EMA, and on a volume move higher up off of that test it is a buy.
Volume: 351.214K Avg Volume: 396.986K
BUY POINT: Test 36.81, then 37.11 on the rebound (orig. $37.63) Volume=593K Target=$43 Stop=$36.32
POSITION: RBQ JG - Oct. $35c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/resp.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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