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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Best Plays:
1) CRM: Moving toward the breakout of a nicely formed base.
2) NVDA: Nice pattern, volume picking up, and the right sector.
3) PRFT: Set up well for the break higher.
4) VASC: Making the breakout move on solid volume.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 07/13/2005
CRM (Salesforce.com--$20.75; +0.85; optionable): Customer relationship management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crm.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A new issue in June 2004, the current 8.5 month base is CRM's first real base. Very nicely formed with the 6 week handle using the 50 day EMA (18.96) on the low as support. Excellent money flow and a very good volume swell the past 8 weeks shows a lot of buyers moving in to accumulate the stock. Good price move Wednesday but needs some volume as it makes the breakout move.
Volume: 1.028M Avg Volume: 1.136M
BUY POINT: $21.38 Volume=1.7M Target=$25.35 Stop=$19.88
POSITION: CRM KD - Nov. $20c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/crm.html
Play Date: 07/13/2005
DESC (Distributed Energy Systems--$4.74; +0.24; no options): Alternative fuels (hydro power)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/desc.html
After Hours: $4.72
STATUS: Breakout test. Huge volume Wednesday as DESC broke higher once more, continuing the breakout move that started in mid-June. Excellent 5 to 1 accumulation in the pattern (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) set up the breakout move. After a 4 week lateral move to consolidate the break higher DESC looks ready to resume the move. This is the second solid base as DESC comes off of the bottom of a decline that started when it came public in late 2000. Solid accumulation, surging money flow, and relative strength ready to breakout and take it higher.
Volume: 1.419M Avg Volume: 352.82K
BUY POINT: $4.88 Volume=500K Target=$5.92 Stop=$4.54
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/desc.html
Play Date: 07/13/2005
NVDA (Nvidia--$28.44; +0.04; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
After Hours: $28.42
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A very nice 4.5 month cup with handle base has formed as NVDA sets up for a breakout to a 3 year high. Volume has started to move up to average the past two sessions as NVDA bumps its head at the breakout point. Strong 7 to 3 accumulation in the pattern shows the buying that is setting the foundation for the breakout move. Great money flow to boot puts the icing on the cake of a really good pattern.
Volume: 5.349M Avg Volume: 5.226M
BUY POINT: $28.95 Volume=7M Target=$34.72 Stop=$27.55
POSITION: UVA LY - Dec. $27.50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nvda.html
Play Date: 07/13/2005
PRFT (Perficient--$7.79; +0.02; no options): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prft.html
After Hours: $7.77
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. PRFT is setting up for the breakout to a 4.5 year high as it works on the handle to its 4.5 month base. It used the 200 day SMA (6.43) on the lows of the two legs as support, a key institutional support level. Solid 5 to 2 accumulation shows net buyers, and with the strong money flow PRFT looks solid in making the breakout. Volume has backed off the past couple of sessions after a strong volume jump higher Monday. Looks solid and looking for another break higher on volume.
Volume: 63.618K Avg Volume: 153.456K
BUY POINT: $8.12 Volume=230K Target=$9.75 Stop=$7.55
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/prft.html
Play Date: 07/13/2005
VASC (Vascular Solutions--$12.98; +1.24; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vasc.html
After Hours: $12.99
Earnings: 7-21-05 after the close.
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume shot higher Wednesday as VASC started the breakout move from its 14.5 month base, a nicely formed pattern sporting solid 13 to 10 accumulation. It has formed the handle the past 9 weeks, and that lateral move shows excellent 4 to 0 accumulation. Looking to step into positions on a continued strong move and then again on a successful test of the breakout move, i.e. when it comes back on lower volume and then starts higher on stronger trade. Nice pattern and the start of a nice breakout move.
Volume: 576.871K Avg Volume: 725K
BUY POINT: $13.05 Volume=200K Target=$15.72 Stop=$12.32
POSITION: BOQ LV - Dec. $12.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vasc.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Upside: Some choice plays that look ready to move.
Not yet entered:
Play Date: 07/11/2005
CHRW (C.H. Robinson Worldwide--$59.55; -0.09; optionable): Air delivery and freight
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chrw.html
After Hours: $59.48
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Volume fell off the table Wednesday as CHRW paused right at the breakout point. Strong volume led the move to this point, and need to see it resume as it continues higher. To recap: Strong volume to start the week as CHRW tapped the 50 day EMA (56.62) on the Friday low and reversed to close positive. Strong 4 to 0 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume) shows all buying in the current lateral move. This follows the breakout from a 4.5 month double bottom with handle in mid-May; good combination or base on base pattern that really sets up good moves. Strong move Monday following some strong money flow. Looks ready to for the next stage in the move that will take it to a new all-time high.
Volume: 377.841K Avg Volume: 636.155K
BUY POINT: $59.69 Volume=665K Target=$67 Stop=$57.78
POSITION: CJQ KL - Nov. $60c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/chrw.html
Play Date: 07/12/2005
DTAS (Digitas Inc.--$11.7; -0.13; optionable): Internet services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dtas.html
After Hours: $11.66
STATUS: Breakout test. After the strong volume move higher on good volume Tuesday, DTAS took the day off with most of the market, posting a fractional loss on lower, below average volume. Still solid and ready to continue the breakout move, but taking a breather. To recap: Volume jumped Tuesday as DTAS moved off of the 50 day EMA (11.03) test that followed the mid-June breakout from a 20 week saucer base sporting excellent 6 to 3 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume). Excellent base that used the 50 day EMA (11) as support for the pattern. Strong money flow is running higher ahead of price, leading the way to the continued breakout run. Want to see a return to solid trade as the stock continues the break higher.
Volume: 445.966K Avg Volume: 586.531K
BUY POINT: $11.96 Volume=881K Target=$13.75 Stop=$11.37
POSITION: DQB LB - Dec. $10c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dtas.html
Play Date: 07/09/2005
FORM (Formfactor--$27.8; -0.35; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/form.html
Earnings: July 20, 2005
After Hours: $27.83
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume was up Wednesday after FORM announced a product milestone, but it ran in place with the rest of the market. Volume has jumped two of the last three sessions and FORM still stands right at the breakout point to send it to a new all-time high. To recap: FORM is just two years old and it is looking for a breakout to take it to a new all-time higher. Nice 7 month base sporting solid 7 to 5 accumulation (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 5 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buying during the consolidation. The pattern formed over the 200 day SMA (24.22), a key support level. Nice move to end the week, coming off the 50 day EMA (26.35) that acted as support for the handle. Looking for volume to climb on an upside move as FORM makes its breakout.
Volume: 555.472K Avg Volume: 349.072K
BUY POINT: $28.25 Volume=502K Target=$32.75 Stop=$26.82
POSITION: AFU JE - Oct. $25c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/form.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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