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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: DNA; PFCB
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 07/14/2005
CAKE (Cheesecake Factory--$35.26; +0.23; optionable): Casual restaurants.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cake.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Kind of a stretch to call this 14 week base a cup with handle, but that is the basic shape, and with volume ramping up the past three sessions as it approaches the highs in the 'handle' we like what we see here. CAKE is a frequent splitter, last splitting in December. It still has a ways to go to get back up to that level, but this base is a good set up to send it further along. Positive 3 to 2 accumulation is setting the foundation for the breakout to start the next run back up to its split price (46ish). Looking for that volume to continued as CAKE moves through the buy point.
Volume: 979.791K Avg Volume: 644.347K
BUY POINT: $35.55 Volume=750K Target=$40 Stop=$34.32
POSITION: CFQ JG - Oct. $35c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cake.html
Play Date: 07/14/2005
SSYS (Stratasys--$34.86; -0.16; optionable): Computer peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssys.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A sweet little 6.5 month base has formed following a nice surge in 2004 following its late 2003 split. Accumulation in the base is a solid 6 to 4 (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume), setting the foundation for the next breakout. This is something of a base on base pattern, the current base having formed on the heels of a big 15 month base that broke out in late 2005 but could not go anywhere. Good volume move Monday, and looking for another spike higher on strong trade to send it to the breakout.
Volume: 143.171K Avg Volume: 100.611K
BUY POINT: $35.78 Volume=151K Target=$41.65 Stop=$33.92
POSITION: QQG LG - Dec. $35c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ssys.html
New Leader Play:
Play Date: 07/14/2005
CPRT (Copart--$24.88; -0.25; optionable): Auto parts yards
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cprt.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. CPRT is working through a 14 month triangle, an accumulation pattern where a stock makes higher and higher lows below a constant top. CPRT has just made a higher low at the 50 day EMA (24.42) and when a stock is this far into the pattern that often signals a breakout attempt coming. Positive accumulation shows net buyers along with some strong money flow. A breakout takes CPRT to a new all-time high where there is no resistance or overhead supply to sell into the move. A frequent splitter, though a bit below prior split prices; this base gives it a good run toward its prior split prices.
Volume: 201.819K Avg Volume: 381.97K
BUY POINT: $26.24 Volume=573K Target=$30 Stop=$25.35
POSITION: KQJ KE - Nov. $25c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cprt.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all positions but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
BEN: Forecast 7-28-05
CDIS: Forecast mid-July
CETV: Researching to pinpoint the date.
CI: Tentatively forecast in early August.
CTSH: Forecast 7-12-05. Now word on a split yet.
DNA: Forecast 7-6-05. Great earnings but no split announced. Stock enjoyed a great day as a result.
EAT: Forecast tentatively 8-11-05
ENR: Forecast 7-28-05
EQT: Forecast 7-28-05
EXBD: Forecast 7-24-05
FO: Forecast 7-22-05
GOOG: Forecast 7-21-05
GPN: Forecast 7-20-05
HOC: Forecast mid-August
IVGN: Researching to pinpoint a date.
IVX: Forecast 7-14-05
KSWS: Forecast 7-22-05. Getting there.
LM: Forecast 7-21-05
LSS: Forecast 7-18-05. No split history.
MHS: Forecast 7-26-05
MRVL: Researching to pinpoint a date.
OSK: Forecast 7-21-05
RMD: Forecast mid-August
RYN: Forecast 7-26-2005
SHLD: Forecast 7-21-05
SIE: Forecast 7-25-05
SLB: Forecast 7-22-05 before the open.
STN: Forecast 7-28-05
TRMB: Forecast 7-21-05
TSCO: Forecast 7-13-05. Will see if it rings up another split tomorrow.
URBN: Forecast 7-12-05. No word on a split yet.
VLO: Forecast 7-14-05
WFMI: Forecast in late July.
YUM: Forecast 7-13-05. Decent comeback but not a lot of trade on the rebound. Makes us very wary of this move.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 07/14/2005
AGN (Allergan--$86.20; +0.95; optionable): Drugs. Forecast to announce a split 7-27-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 1-27-00 at $88.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agn.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. AGN is working on a 4 week handle to a big 13 month base. This pattern is setting up a breakout to a new all-time high where there is no resistance. Volume moved up toward average Thursday after a very quiet, below average volume lateral move in the handle. Looking for that volume co continue ramping up as the stock moves up and through the buy point.
Volume: 805.4K Avg Volume: 1.159M
BUY POINT: $86.72 Volume=1.7M Target=$97 Stop=$84.72
POSITION: AGN JQ - Oct. $85c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/agn.html
Continuing Plays:
Play Date: 07/02/2005
EAT (Brinker Intl.--$40.3; -0.15; optionable): Restaurants (Chili's, Romano's, On the Boarder, etc.). Kind of a wild card at this time of the year and tentatively forecast for 8-11-05, but a great pattern has set up.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 12-9-00 at $41.00.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eat.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still working laterally along the 18 day EMA (40.07) on low volume as EAT continues to test the early June breakout. Still working well in a market that is peaking a bit on the current move. Money flow is strong and EAT still looks ready to follow it. To recap: EAT exploded higher in early June when it raised its earnings outlook. The consumer is confident and spending money for now, and EAT is benefiting accordingly. After that big blast higher EAT has come back to test the move, holding at the 18 day EMA the past week on lower, below average volume. It held the 18 day and just over the February and March highs on the test, a good indication it is going to hold and rebound to continue the breakout move. Nice 17 week base formed using the 200 day SMA (35.86) on the low and sporting solid positive 3:2 accumulation. Outstanding money flow is leading the way higher.
Volume: 558K Avg Volume: 776.828K
BUY POINT: New: $40.62 (orig. $40.38) Volume=1.2M Target=$46.42 Stop=$39.37
POSITION: EAT JH - Oct. $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/eat.html
Play Date: 07/07/2005
FNF (Fidelity National Financial--$37.96; +0.01; optionable): Surety and title insurance. Forecast 7-20-05
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split 1-28-04 at 41.70. Before that it announced 4-23-03 at $35.80.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fnf.html
STATUS: Breakout. Very low volume continues as FNF works laterally in its tight range after a strong surge to start July. A good test of the breakout, refusing to give up its gains. The 10 day EMA (37.36) is rising to meet it, and that will likely send it higher. To recap: FNF broke out from a 12 week double bottom with handle base, surging last Thursday on strong volume. After a 5 week lateral move to test the mid-May breakout this is a good continuation of the breakout move. Nice base that formed using the 200 day SMA (32.74) as support on the lows. Money flow is surging ahead of price and relative strength broke out as well, a good confirmation of the breakout move. Ready to move into positions when it makes a volume break through the buy point.
Volume: 472.2K Avg Volume: 1.02M
BUY POINT: $38.15 Volume=1.2M Target=$43.75 Stop=$36.32
POSITION: FNF JG - Oct. $35c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fnf.html
Play Date: 07/07/2005
OSK (Oshkosh Truck--$82.79; +0.99; optionable): Trucks. Forecast 7-21-05
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 7-24-03 at $57.30.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/osk.html
STATUS: Flat base. Volume bumped up to average Thursday as OSK started the breakout move from its base. Looks good but want to see some more volume as it continues. To recap: Nice 14 week base with positive accumulation setting up the break higher. Closed off the high but looks solid; just needs to show some more volume.
Volume: 192.8K Avg Volume: 233.278K
BUY POINT: $82.22 Volume=351K Target=$93 Stop=$79.89
POSITION: OSK JP - Oct. $80c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/osk.html
Play Date: 07/09/2005
TRMB (Trimble Navigation--$40.97; +1.03; optionable): Guidance systems for commercial and government applications in construction, agriculture, military, etc. Forecast to announce a split 7-21-05
BACKGROUND: TRMB last announced a 3:2 split (its only one) on 2-3-04 at $38.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trmb.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A short 6 week pattern that formed after the breakout and run from a double bottom base breakout in May. Nice base on base action that really weeds out the sellers. Volume started up Thursday, jumping to average as TRMB gapped higher and held most of its gain. Looking for a bit more volume as it continues the move higher.
Volume: 364.51K Avg Volume: 369.798K
BUY POINT: New: $41.21 (orig. $40.32) Volume=500K Target=$46.25 Stop=$38.88
POSITION: TUH KH - Nov. $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/trmb.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/07/2005
HCC (HCC Insurance Holdings--$39.7; +0.16; optionable): P & C Insurance. Splits 3:2 on 7-18-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hcc.html
STATUS: Still setting up very well for its breakout, showing a nice tight doji Thursday as it moves over the 10 day EMA (39.24). The split is just ahead and it is set up well to make the breakout move in its pre-split run. Looking for a solid move above 40 to enter positions.
Volume: 173.9K Avg Volume: 368.961K
BUY POINT: $40.05 Volume=475K Target=$44.88 Stop=$39.55
POSITION: HCC KH - Nov. $40c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hcc.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/09/2005
CWTR (Coldwater Creek--$23.72; +0.38; optionable): Catalog and mail order houses
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cwtr.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume jumped sharply Thursday, moving well above average as CWTR reached down below the 18 day EMA (23.32) but then shot back up to post a gain. Nice, nice test of the late May breakout. It came back to the 50 day EMA (21.98) on the first test in late May and blasted higher on strong volume. It is making the second test of the breakout, holding the 18 day EMA on this test. Strong money flow is still leading higher. Nice breakout from a 5 month cup base. Looks very ready to make the rebound move.
Volume: 715.3K Avg Volume: 441.802K
BUY POINT: $24.14 Volume=647K Target=$28.35 Stop=$23.12
POSITION: CWK JY - Oct. $23.375c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cwtr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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